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✅ 8/15/22 Lightning Build Week Group

Drayday55

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Just got this from chat.

They said I'm in transit at Riverdale junction point Illinois. It's in possession of Indiana harbor belt rail road company.
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ResidualJinx

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BD3C8E3E-B5B6-4344-BFA3-533ECF8B53B7.jpeg


Dealership report, they don’t have any more information. 🤷🏼‍♂️
Dont know if you'll have the same experience but that's all it said for me the entire trip so I wouldn't put much stock in that. My railcar number is now tracking at Mira Loma, CA, do you have your railcar number?
 
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Invictus

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Dont know if you'll have the same experience but that's all it said for me the entire trip so I wouldn't put much stock in that. My railcar number is now tracking at Mira Loma, CA, do you have your railcar number?
Yeah… TTGX705588
 

ResidualJinx

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I wanna start my post by saying @Straight2VHS you are 100% correct that what is happening to you is BS and you should be doing everything you can to be heard because your experience is way outside the norm!! Hello @Ford Motor Company?!?! Also, as awesome as @TaxmanHog dataset is (and bro you're data is amazing!) it's not fully representative of the ground truth as its missing data points (like me, I know I'm a terrible person; but anyone else not on the forum is also not in there of course). I cant discriminate between SoCal and other areas of CA with the data; folks from Cali understand we're really different states lol. Lastly, if I use incorrect terms below, feel free to correct me I just ask not to get crushed in the process lol. I took the CA only delivered folks and derived an average and standard deviation.

With those disclaimers out of the way let me explain what the data is showing. We're seeing a 23 day average "shipped" to "delivered". There is also a standard deviation of 9 days. Just as a quick FYI, standard deviation is a great way of showing what would be considered the "norm" or the bulk part of a bell curve. So you take the average and you add/subtract the standard deviation and deliveries to California have been taking 14-32 days. Once you get outside that range, either more or less, you're experience is atypical and you should feel lucky to win the different award... or super justified in feeling like this is BS and you should have your truck already. The last column I added to TaxMan's spreadsheet is just showing the ratio of std dev, or multiples of the std dev... 1 std dev would suck but ok... 2 std dev is excessive and your super special... anything beyond and something else has to explain what's happening to you. Another way of understanding this is if you had teachers that graded on a curve, the normal range would be a "C", 1 std dev above the normal range would give you a "B", 2 std dev above would the "A" range.

Ford F-150 Lightning ✅ 8/15/22 Lightning Build Week Group 1663759321736


I say all that to say, we're trending pretty nicely within the empirically represented data and not really seeing a significant delay... accordingly to our limited dataset. That plus I still couldn't find any indications of a carrier dispute in SoCal causing delays to the "last mile" delivery of vehicles, I'm not saying it's not there I just didn't find it. Also I just realized I may crush some people by showing you the range of dates you might be getting your truck, and dreams of when they thought it would arrive but hey miracles happen lol!!

On the plus side and I may be outside the interpretation of the data but looking at the standard deviation in comparison to actual delivery dates: Ford appears to be lowering the average and/or beating the average by multiples of the standard deviation regularly so that they're trending positively toward lowering delivery times. I will note the lack of recent data could be skewing all of this haha

Ford F-150 Lightning ✅ 8/15/22 Lightning Build Week Group 1663758631405
 
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ResidualJinx

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Yeah… TTGX705588
Can you re-chat Ford and ask them to give you the railcar number again... that number is talking about shipping notes from 9/4 and you didn't get the shipped notice until 9/16
 

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architectTE

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Well, after being built 9/17 and having an ETA of 9/14-9/20 that came and went… new ETA has adjusted to 10/9-10/20
 

luebri

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Just checked on my ford order page. My eta was 9/10 to 9/17 then slipped to 9/25 to 10/2 a couple weeks ago, now its bumped back up to 9/17 to 9/23!!! Lets go!!!!! Its looking like it might be truck week!!!
Checked again this morning. Now I'm back at 9/25 to 10/1 eta. Reminds me of this scene from the office....

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djteotancolis

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This is not a drill! Built! 9/20 date. Finally!


l9xbmuhf8frc5aa4uqgzpy3b1urufufii3p4tiq8&rid=giphy.gif
Congrats!! Finally!


Was finally able to track mine - Passed through Buffalo IL around 5:44 AM.

Railcar # COER900720 (Norfolk Southern Corp)
 

Invictus

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Can you re-chat Ford and ask them to give you the railcar number again... that number is talking about shipping notes from 9/4 and you didn't get the shipped notice until 9/16
Just verified via chat:

“Based on the last update on September 18th, I was able to see that your vehicle is in transit with the reported location as Riverdale, IL. The ETA is showing October 5th, and the following information is available for transport: Railcar # TTGX705588 (Canadian National Railways ).”
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