% Estimated Build Date by Wave

[PV2EV]

In preparation for tomorrow's NOT disappointment Thursday I made a pivot table from the current spreadsheet (it required a bit of cleanup/sleuthing of dates, and I could not figure out the wave date for 4 records):

Wave	% with Est Build Date
Wave 1	62%
Wave 2	60%
Wave 3	47% (Wave 3 is a small data set)
Wave 4	56%
Wave 5	55%
Wave 6	45%

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[sotek2345]

I appreciate your confidence!

From those percentages, it does look like scheduling is largely random and has nothing to do with waves. Also from the percentages, only about half of those with orders have been scheduled over ~5 months of production (April -> August). If Ford holds the same rate, then we need another 5 months (September -> January) to finish up FY22 production (plus some for the new Wave 7). Something doesn't compute!

 

[greenne]

I appreciate your confidence!

From those percentages, it does look like scheduling is largely random and has nothing to do with waves. Also from the percentages, only about half of those with orders have been scheduled over ~5 months of production (April -> August). If Ford holds the same rate, then we need another 5 months (September -> January) to finish up FY22 production (plus some for the new Wave 7). Something doesn't compute!

I am hoping the delay is simply due to unpredictable supplies and they are moving things around to keep the assembly line flexible and moving. I am confident Ford will fill the holes as we go along..I don't see how they can extend the model year much further. They should be making 2023s by Oct-Nov....

 

[Ken]

production isn't constant for retail units, I think the first few months were primarily dealer models, so the rate of production should increase as the summer goes on. Also wasn't there a new factory in production to make the 23's or is it later than that. If the 23's are going to be made somewhere else, they could still make 22's longer than expected.

 

[metroshot]

Useful compilation of data!

At least the 1st wave has the most build dates...

Just strange they haven't prioritized the early waves for delivery...

 

[greenne]

production isn't constant for retail units, I think the first few months were primarily dealer models, so the rate of production should increase as the summer goes on. Also wasn't there a new factory in production to make the 23's or is it later than that. If the 23's are going to be made somewhere else, they could still make 22's longer than expected.

Rouge plant is brand new(heavily modified--retooled). The NEW plant(s) for the Lightning is a few years away.(Probably gen2). I do think they are expanding Rouge, but that shouldn't affect the switchover date.

 

[sotek2345]

production isn't constant for retail units, I think the first few months were primarily dealer models, so the rate of production should increase as the summer goes on. Also wasn't there a new factory in production to make the 23's or is it later than that. If the 23's are going to be made somewhere else, they could still make 22's longer than expected.

The mew factory in Tennessee is for 2025/2026. They are working to expand the Rouge EV factory to support the ramp up for 2023, but that is an expansion not a new building.

Legally they can build 2022 straight through December though - as long as they come off the line by 12/31/22.

 

[hturnerfamily]

I would also assume that the '% with Build Dates' does not take into consideration those who did not proceed with their order, or have chosen to wait for 2023 for those early trim level sell-outs, like the PRO.

 

[PV2EV]

I would also assume that the '% with Build Dates' does not take into consideration those who did not proceed with their order, or have chosen to wait for 2023 for those early trim level sell-outs, like the PRO.

Not sure any on this forum did that, but if so, the spreadsheet would need another column (abandoned order, so no further data). Those opting to extend their reservation for MY23 did not have an order and no wave date, do not in this dataset.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Not sure any on this forum did that, but if so, the spreadsheet would need another column (abandoned order, so no further data). Those opting to extend their reservation for MY23 did not have an order and no wave date, do not in this dataset.

I've got idea to poll the audience of order makers for their final intention, (Abandon or Purchase)
but I won't go down that road until wave-7 orders are done and scheduling has occurred for the remainder of the year, then we can weed them out, that's if those disinterested members are still reading the forum.

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