Is the "used" market normal for F150 depreciation at this point? Or is it worse?

[pc500]

As far as I can tell, we're at a point where the used market is commanding $75k for Lariat ER's, and the build year (2022 vs 2023) doesn't seem to matter.

This is essentially, a $15k drive off the lot depreciation. It has changd quite overnight, at the start of Febuary.

Questions:

1) Is this level of depreciation normal for a pickup (even a Gas F150), or is it worse?

2) Do we really expect these vehicles to hold 60% 3-year depreciation (IE: 60k value in 3 years)?

3) Or, will the market tank here and get far far worse?

4) Or will it get better once the straggling 2022 inventory is cleaned up as 2023 pricing volume will quickly outnumber?

It also seems even those that are selling are sitting, and having problems transacting. Maybe people are just asking too much, but the lack of market activity is also concerning.

The rivian on the other hand, is still transacting for MSRP.

I'm almost tempted to pass up my order and buy used. However realistically, I'll drive the thing for 3 years an trade it in. So, I don't want to totally get destroyed, anymore than a standard gas 4x4.

Thoughts?

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[Zprime29]

The dealers in my neck of the woods didn't get that memo. They still wanted $10k+ over MSRP. Had one in town, a 2022, that refused to come down under $15k. Where did you find used for $75k?

 

[s_c]

Good questions. The car market has cooled significantly since Carvana and many others were buying up used cars for elevated prices during height of chip shortage. They may have been able to do this when rates were more favorable and they had public backing but now rates are very high and used inventory is also good as not everyone was willing to jump on a car with above normal pricing. Demand from buyers is still relatively high, but with high rates, very few are pulling the trigger on expensive vehicles. I think that's hurting the Lariat ERs in particular.

 

[pc500]

The dealers in my neck of the woods didn't get that memo. They still wanted $10k+ over MSRP. Had one in town, a 2022, that refused to come down under $15k. Where did you find used for $75k?

The for sale forums on this message board.

 

[Grumpy2]

Assuming your prices are correct, Isn't the real instant deprecation closer to $7,500? In my state, if you took ownership of a new truck yesterday you would receive $10k in rebates. Sometime soon that may become $6,250. Either way, no federal money on a used Lightning unless it is less than $25K .

 

[pc500]

Assuming your prices are correct, Isn't the real instant deprecation closer to $7,500? In my state, if you took ownership of a new truck yesterday you would receive $10k in rebates. Sometime soon that may become $6,250. Either way, no federal money on a used Lightning unless it is less than $25K .

None in Washigton unfortunately. It's probably an exception and not the norm in most US states. That stopped dec 31 (might tie in with my point #4).

 

[Zprime29]

The for sale forums on this message board.

Ah, I haven't checked out the for sale threads. I really wanted the tax credit, which I got since I purchased a 2022 last week. I guess I don't care too much, I plan on driving this truck at least 10 years, longer if I can manage it. It might actually be under $25k by then!

 

[laselvasurf]

Any new vehicle isn't a good long term investment. That said, I think the resale market is still relatively strong. The latest XLT to sell on eBay closed for $63K and was almost a year old. Based on what I can tell, it sold for more than it's MSRP.

The market for these vehicles is greatly dependent on your location. The truck mentioned above is from Ohio, which is not the strongest market for EVs. That truck in my local market in northern CA would easily sell for more.

There are some scenarios that the resale market will be worse(Platinums, high trim Lariats), and I think that's primarily because borrowed money is relatively expensive at the moment. When/if interest rates shift, the resale market will definitely respond for better or worse.

Here's some inside info on what some of us are actually paying for these trucks. MY XLT had an MSRP of $65K. I had price protection so take off $6500. That puts my purchase price at $58500. My out the door was right around $65000 with the triple care, taxes, and registration. Now let's talk rebates and taxes... I got $7500 off my tax bill from the feds. I also got $2K from my local energy provider and $2K from CA. Total rebates were $11500. That puts my actual cost at $53500. All that to say, I'm confident I could sell my truck for more than that in 5 minutes. When people say depreciation, I look at that number, not the MSRP. Most people buying these trucks will have some kind of rebate or incentives that they are eligible for and honestly, they are priced with that in mind.

 

[F150ROD]

At the end of the day it’s an F-150. It will depreciate like an F-150 until the new generation and then it will hold steady.

If you are looking to feel good about your truck holding its value then forget the F-150 and get the Rivian. There are more people willing to overpay for a Rivian because they want to be exclusive. The F-150 is not exclusive, unless it’s a Raptor?

Just to give you an Idea, when you hit 21k miles, the current trade in is from $60-$70k on a Lariat ER. Lower mileage F-150s should be going for close to MSRP.

 

[adoublee]

$75K is not a $15K loss for those who got 2022s at initial pricing (and before parts stripping). After tax credit, I'd still be ahead at $75K with a Lariat.

 

[Flashy McLightning]

With tighter production and battery material rules clarification, I’d expect the market to stay pretty strong through at least the summer.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

As far as I can tell, we're at a point where the used market is commanding $75k for Lariat ER's, and the build year (2022 vs 2023) doesn't seem to matter.

This is essentially, a $15k drive off the lot depreciation. It has changd quite overnight, at the start of Febuary.

Questions:

1) Is this level of depreciation normal for a pickup (even a Gas F150), or is it worse?

2) Do we really expect these vehicles to hold 60% 3-year depreciation (IE: 60k value in 3 years)?

3) Or, will the market tank here and get far far worse?

4) Or will it get better once the straggling 2022 inventory is cleaned up as 2023 pricing volume will quickly outnumber?

It also seems even those that are selling are sitting, and having problems transacting. Maybe people are just asking too much, but the lack of market activity is also concerning.

The rivian on the other hand, is still transacting for MSRP.

I'm almost tempted to pass up my order and buy used. However realistically, I'll drive the thing for 3 years an trade it in. So, I don't want to totally get destroyed, anymore than a standard gas 4x4.

Thoughts?

Kind of a skewed comparison. The Rivian’s current MSRP is mid 90s. They’re selling for mid 80s on the private market with no miles. If you have miles on it, the selling price is even less.

I have been looking to trade for either a Platinum or Lariat ER and my trade in quotes for my R1T has been between 60k-75k.

Point is, they’re about the same. The problem isn’t the truck. The problem is interest rates. A car loan is sitting at 8-9% That suppresses the amount of people who can afford the vehicle. Then you throw in people who walked away from new orders, people who thought they would flip and the used market starts competing with itself.

 

[metroshot]

The for sale forums on this message board.

For sale boards are "private party" pricing - different than the actual wholesale pricing I have been monitoring.

MMR pricing shows SR Lightnings going for about $68K while the ER is going for around $75K on average (5.0 condition).

Used prices are starting to rise after the "winter / end of year / before tax refund" time.

OTOH local dealers that have new customer abandoned ordered Lightnings are going for $10K-$20K over MSRP and still moving - but that's in Los Angeles county....

 

[FordLightningMan]

In high tax and low rebate states (i.e. - NY), you're definitely losing money driving off the lot in some trims already. In other areas where there's higher rebates, no EV sales tax, etc. you are probably a little ahead day one.

Unless someone is flipping, and if they are then they're bad at flipping because the best of times have passed, I think vehicle depreciation has somewhat normalized. Unless you're buying classic cars or something which isn't mass produced, vehicles aren't an investment.

 

[jimfigler]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

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