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Who will have the first delivery, Lightning or Cybertruck?

Sgt Beavis

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Tesla is doing their usual production delays. Ford could slip due to same supply shortages that impacted the Bronco but Tesla still has to finish the factory. Ford’s factory is built, they’re just working through the prep work for the final assembly line. So it’s a fairly safe bet the Lightning will reach the market first.

I’m going to get my Lightning reservation fulfilled LONG before it get a shot at filling my CT reservation. I reserved a Lightning immediately. There are probably half a million or more CT reservations in front of me.
 

vandy1981

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F150L>Canoo>Lordstown Endurance>>>>CT
 

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sotek2345

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Maxx

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Rivian, Lightning, CT.

Cybertruck has major unknowns. 8000 Ib Giga cast is the first of it’s kind and has never been tried before, exoskeleton design is new, it depends on 4680 that as of now has major issues. Small stuff like electronic rear view mirror and side mirror may have regulatory challenges. Currently model Y that is Tesla’s bread and butter has a higher priority and factory is not finished (the pace of construction is impressive though). All of that with 2023 full mass production start time and 1.5 million reservation. If anyone register now even with .5 million cancellation, at 250K per year production is looking at 2027 delivery. This is assuming no more hiccups and everything working according to plan from here. The only risk for Ford is chip and battery shortage and at 15K / year, I am not sure how much of a risk that is. It is working off of an existing platform so supply chain with everything else other than power train is already hammered out. I think if You reserved in first 12-24 hours, you are in good shape. Let’s hope after they introduce the real lightning in 2025, they don’t forget to support the few 1st gen they sold.
 
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Nick Gerteis

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Rivian, Lightning, CT.

Cybertruck has major unknowns. 8000 Ib Giga cast is the first of it’s kind and has never been tried before, exoskeleton design is new, it depends on 4680 that as of now has major issues. Small stuff like electronic rear view mirror and side mirror may have regulatory challenges. Currently model Y that is Tesla’s bread and butter has a higher priority and factory is not finished (the pace of construction is impressive though). All of that with 2023 full mass production start time and 1.5 million reservation. If anyone register now even with .5 million cancellation, at 250K per year production is looking at 2027 delivery. This is assuming no more hiccups and everything working according to plan from here. The only risk for Ford is chip and battery shortage and at 15K / year, I am not sure how much of a risk that is. It is working off and existing platform so supply chain with everything else other than power train is already hammered out. I think if You reserved in first 12-24 hours, you are in good shape. Let’s hope after they introduce the real lightning in 2025, they don’t forget to support the few 1st gen they sold.
Good summary! Re your last point, I don't think we'll have to worry too much: 90% of the vehicle is identical to ICE version, and electric drivetrain components of next gen will just be a refresh of/compatible with those used in our 2022 Lightnings.
 

Sgt Beavis

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Rivian, Lightning, CT.

Cybertruck has major unknowns. 8000 Ib Giga cast is the first of it’s kind and has never been tried before, exoskeleton design is new, it depends on 4680 that as of now has major issues. Small stuff like electronic rear view mirror and side mirror may have regulatory challenges. Currently model Y that is Tesla’s bread and butter has a higher priority and factory is not finished (the pace of construction is impressive though). All of that with 2023 full mass production start time and 1.5 million reservation. If anyone register now even with .5 million cancellation, at 250K per year production is looking at 2027 delivery. This is assuming no more hiccups and everything working according to plan from here. The only risk for Ford is chip and battery shortage and at 15K / year, I am not sure how much of a risk that is. It is working off and existing platform so supply chain with everything else other than power train is already hammered out. I think if You reserved in first 12-24 hours, you are in good shape. Let’s hope after they introduce the real lightning in 2025, they don’t forget to support the few 1st gen they sold.
This is why I’m only planning to keep mine a few years and get either the CT or the F150 with the TE1 platform. So many changes in so little time.
 

astricklin

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This is why I’m only planning to keep mine a few years and get either the CT or the F150 with the TE1 platform. So many changes in so little time.
With the rapidly changing technology, it's not a bad idea to lease a bev.
However, if it meets your needs then buy it and drive it forever and you'll save a ton of money in the long run. How often do you really need 300+ miles of range? Is that often enough to justify buying another vehicle in 3 or 4 years? If 2025 year model trucks have significantly more range and the resale value on the 2022-2024 models drop then a lease will be the best option (especially if the residual set in the lease ends up being higher than the market value). On the flip side, if you buy it then drive it till it's worth nothing anyway then it won't matter.
 


 


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