WSJ: Ford Considers Scrapping Electric Version of F-150 Truck

[Traconesu]

Interesting article stating Ford is air freighting the rolls of aluminum. Drives the production cost astronomically high. Helps explain the Lightning production pause from a financial perspective.


https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ford-aluminum-f-150-tariffs

Ford needs to definitely get out of New York and rebuild in Texas.

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[Maxx]

Yeah. Reports are the Ford is on track to lose close to a billion dollars (and possibly a good bit more due to this new fire) simply because they can't produce enough F-150's to meet demand. I'm sure they're willing to sacrifice a lot just to keep that F-150 production line putting out as many vehicles as they can.

‘It is kinda double whammy. Aluminum companies have started to have U.S. only surcharge due to tariff volatility. Rio Tinto Group is charging us more. Alcoa has diverted around 100,000 tonnes of Canadian aluminum away from the U.S. to other markets after the tariff hikes which makes supplies tighter for us. U.S. customers pay more in London Metal Exchange (LME) because we are considered riskier now. I wonder if Ford is considering going back to steel or switching back has too many downsides to consider.

 

[Traconesu]

I don't buy this perspective.

From available reporting, Ford started working on an "electric F-150" in February 2018. It is hard for me to believe that the first Trump administration (remember, inaugurated in January 2017) was "breathing down Ford's neck" to build electric pickups.

It is much more likely that Ford became aware of multiple companies working on EV pickup trucks. Tesla had a pickup truck on their master plan starting in 2016, and Rivian revealed its first two products, the A1T pickup and A1C SUV in December 2017 (they were renamed R1T and R1C about a year later). This put Ford in a difficult position: either develop a BEV pickup of their own, or cede leadership of what was expected to be a significant market segment to a pair of EV startups.

I think the decision to base their BEV pickup on the F-150 was brilliant. If buyers want a re-invention of the pickup truck concept, Tesla has got that covered, while Rivian has the EV adventure/lifestyle angle. I think Ford (correctly) assumed that there's a reason that the F-150 is the best-selling pickup in the US, and it isn't because it's the cheapest. So it stands to reason that "An F-150, but electric" would appeal to a lot of buyers. Sales have proven that out: the Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup in the US.

Given all of this, it makes for a clear decision regarding the future of the Lightning:

• IF you believe that EVs in general, and full-size EV pickups and SUVs specifically, will never amount to more than 10% to 20% of comparable gas and hybrid sales, then it makes sense for Ford to cancel the F-150 Lightning. There's no sense in maintaining EV marketshare or building expertise with EVs if they will never be more than a niche market. Leave EVs to the EV-specific start-ups like Tesla and Rivian, and EV-focused traditional carmakers like Hyundai and Kia.
• IF you believe that EVs represent a key area of market growth, then it is important for Ford to maintain their leadership position in this segment by building better pickup trucks and compact crossovers than their competition. Even if this represents a loss per unit sold, it is an important investment in maintaining and growing their future business.

I don't believe figures like $35,000 to $100,000 that are often bandied about, because these confuse capital investments with the cost to produce an existing design. I DO suspect that the loss of CAFE penalties and Federal income tax incentives (both zeroed out in July 2025) do mean that Ford loses a bit on each EV sold. Back-of-the envelope calculations suggest that each Lightning sold prior to July 2025 saved Ford between $500 and $1000 in CAFE penalties, and most carmakers took advantage of the $7500 Federal tax credit to inflate margins as much as possible.

Everyone thinks they could get $7500 federal tax credit on their EV purchase when in fact all you can get is what you pay in taxes that year up to $7500.

 

[RLXXI]

‘It is kinda double whammy. Aluminum companies have started to have U.S. only surcharge due to tariff volatility. Rio Tinto Group is charging us more. Alcoa has diverted around 100,000 tonnes of Canadian aluminum away from the U.S. to other markets after the tariff hikes which makes supplies tighter for us. U.S. customers pay more in London Metal Exchange (LME) because we are considered riskier now. I wonder if Ford is considering going back to steel or switching back has too many downsides to consider.

Back in 15 when aluminum debuted, iirc they said the difference was about 750 lbs on a super crew. I'd call that substantial.

 

[RLXXI]

Everyone thinks they could get $7500 federal tax credit on their EV purchase when in fact all you can get is what you pay in taxes that year up to $7500.

Leased mine so no rebate for me.

 

[Traconesu]

Leased mine so no rebate for me.

I only got around $3500 on my platinum because that's all the federal taxes that I paid that year.

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