100%/75%/50%/25% Depth of Charge Graph for NMC Batteries

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The dealer clearly is using a price higher than a purchase price of a new Mach-E as a way to ensure discourage the customer from asking for a new battery.

At the moment, dealers hold the cards, but for the industry to move forward, we will eventually reach a period where third party battery manufacturing and installation will be widespread, and I can definitely envision a huge industry for battery exchanges down the road.

Right now, most batteries are under their 100,000 mile warranty, so the potential market for third party swaps is smaller, but as the number of aging and out of warranty batteries increases, third parties will eventually be everywhere.

We're not that far from this right now. There were quite a few startups in the last NY Auto Show demonstrating cars and even converted ICE cars, which means they had to source cookie cutter battery modules directly from the battery makers.

What excites me is that in 10 years, battery technology will advance, and we will likely be able to find companies making faster charging, lighter weight batteries with more range that can be swapped in a few hours.

For all of that to happen, 3 thing must come to pass.

1. Battery cost must become lower as a percentage of total car cost
2. EV electrical systems must become less complicated
3. EV batteries must become more standardized across all EVs

I think this will take more than 10 years.

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For all of that to happen, 3 thing must come to pass.

1. Battery cost must become lower as a percentage of total car cost
2. EV electrical systems must become less complicated
3. EV batteries must become more standardized across all EVs

I think this will take more than 10 years.

That's about right, except standardization of the packs may take a lot longer.

Right now, the market is just pulled batteries from vehicles that were totalled.

There are actually quite a lot of Tesla battery packs on eBay for $4000 to $8000, and a few high range packs for a little more.

To move to the next phase, third parties will need to build entirely new packs that compete with the prices and range of the used ones. I also feel that in the long term, 20 years from now there will be car restorations that will use technology that does not exist today to give restorations potentially double the range, or simply give the same range with a much lighter and cheaper technology.

The race to improve battery technology is accelerating as the breakthroughs in the underlying science advance. The Nobel Prizewinning inventor of the Lithium battery leads the pack, at nearly 100 years old.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...lithium-ion-battery-invented-another-battery/

Goodenough's new battery boasts triple the energy storage of standard batteries, along with a much higher longevity. As an added bonus, the battery doesn't explode like lithium-ion batteries can.