Lightning Waves #1-4 have a 47% order conversion rate.

I thought this was interesting. Only 47% of those that received order invites from waves 1-4 placed an order for a MY22. It could mean that there will be a significant cleanup wave after the 3/31 deadline, but Ford could also just stop without a cleanup due to supply constraints.

I wonder how many of those people opted to wait for a Pro SR model. That was my intention and then I did enough mental gymnastics to justify a Lariat ER haha.

maverick92 said:

I wonder how many of those people opted to wait for a Pro SR model. That was my intention and then I did enough mental gymnastics to justify a Lariat ER haha.

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I'm also a skilled mental gymnast who ordered a Lariat ER.

Lariat ER was my plan all along, though the main display on the xlt and pro, assuming the same functions, would be preferred to the big button-less display on the lariat. Heated seats and steering wheel are EV must haves in a cold climate.

I was wave 3, and when it came down to do the order, I just couldn't stomach the price of the platinum and didn't want to down grade to a Lariat. Even the Lariat is still $12k more then the loaded Platinum power boost that I have ordered. That and the truck being so new, I think I'm going to wait 3-4 years to see how things develop. Not ready to be a beta tester at that price right now.

My dealer conversion rate was 40%, with the other 60% reported to not convert because the Pro was no longer available to them when they got their invitations.

I'd like to see a by wave breakdown.

Wave 4 very well could have priced a lot of people out.

With such a low conversion rate, I assume they shut the orders down early for a reason. Commodity constraints OR price increase are possibilities.

VTbuckeye said:

Lariat ER was my plan all along, though the main display on the xlt and pro, assuming the same functions, would be preferred to the big button-less display on the lariat. Heated seats and steering wheel are EV must haves in a cold climate.

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My biggest complaint with the XLT SR is no heated seats. In the $50k+ price range, heated seats are almost always a feature. With a EV, it is recommended by manufacturers to use heated seats as a primary heat source. Forced air heating uses far more battery and is inefficient, so this is a major design flaw with the 2022 XLT. I still made the purchase because the XLT SR has a lot of features, but I'm sure I'll be complaining about the seats for as many years as I own the truck.

Regarding conversion rates, this ties into my first point. I'm sure that there are a lot of people who didn't like the option packages, which are poorly conceived, and they walked. Minimum cost of ER being the other obvious thing pushing people away. I'd bet many Lightning reservation holders would be first time EV buyers. A 230 mile range results in huge range anxiety for new EV buyers, a $74k price for a 300 mile range results in huge wallet anxiety.

One more point, it's really easy to make a $100 down payment, it's much more challenging to buy something that costs over $50k. The barrier to entry to reserve was very low. I imagine the conversion rate on the Cybertruck will be very similar for this reason. If the Lightning required a $5k reservation, I am certain conversion rate would be much higher.

PA Lightning said:

With such a low conversion rate, I assume they shut the orders down early for a reason. Commodity constraints OR price increase are possibilities.

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Supply constraints are probably playing the biggest role. They could have easily found buyers for more Lariat and Platinum builds if they had kept going with invites.

It's also possible that they're trying to limit the number of deferrals for MY2022 Pro SR. They would be crazy if they continued to offer the Pro SR to retail channels while they still can't fill demand with higher trims. I'm guessing that they will limit it to fleets for MY2023 except for those with MY2022 deferrals. If they had issued another wave of invites they would have accumulated more Pro deferrals that they may feel the obligation to build for MY2023.

I would not be surprised if they did not allow deferrals in the cleanup wave for that reason.

For MY24, I also imagine that trims will need to be selected at the time of placing a reservation. This happens with other manufacturers (i.e. - I selected a dual-motor Cybertruck). Waiting til conversion for trim selection came back to bite Ford, when there was a larger than expected number of Pro buyers in the queue. Requiring trim selection upfront may result in preorders of certain trims selling out. Or maybe if you want the Pro you will just be told upfront you need to wait a few years. With the Model S/X refresh, this was the Tesla approach. Many non-plaid people are still waiting for their vehicles, as the higher margin trims are prioritized. In fact, a new order for a plaid X will likely be delivered well before someone who ordered a non-plaid X a long time ago. Same thing for 3/Y, you can order a base model, but Tesla will only make it after they have exhausted their orders of higher trim. Go to Tesla's website now and look at delivery times, this is common knowledge. People all want the Tesla model, but anyone who wants a Pro likely will be very angry when it comes and their delivery dates keep getting pushed.

Ford is not concerned at all about the low conversion rate. They will sell every Lightning they make immediately for several years. For those that don't convert, they thank you for the interest free loan. There's a reason the reservation amount is $100, easy access to capital and good press.

FordLightningMan said:

My biggest complaint with the XLT SR is no heated seats. In the $50k+ price range, heated seats are almost always a feature. With a EV, it is recommended by manufacturers to use heated seats as a primary heat source. Forced air heating uses far more battery and is inefficient, so this is a major design flaw with the 2022 XLT. I still made the purchase because the XLT SR has a lot of features, but I'm sure I'll be complaining about the seats for as many years as I own the truck.

Regarding conversion rates, this ties into my first point. I'm sure that there are a lot of people who didn't like the option packages, which are poorly conceived, and they walked. Minimum cost of ER being the other obvious thing pushing people away. I'd bet many Lightning reservation holders would be first time EV buyers. A 230 mile range results in huge range anxiety for new EV buyers, a $74k price for a 300 mile range results in huge wallet anxiety.

One more point, it's really easy to make a $100 down payment, it's much more challenging to buy something that costs over $50k. The barrier to entry to reserve was very low. I imagine the conversion rate on the Cybertruck will be very similar for this reason. If the Lightning required a $5k reservation, I am certain conversion rate would be much higher.

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Yeah, but they wouldn’t have 200K reservations to brag about.

vandy1981 said:

Supply constraints are probably playing the biggest role. They could have easily found buyers for more Lariat and Platinum builds if they had kept going with invites.

It's also possible that they're trying to limit the number of deferrals for MY2022 Pro SR. They would be crazy if they continued to offer the Pro SR to retail channels while they still can't fill demand with higher trims. I'm guessing that they will limit it to fleets for MY2023 except for those with MY2022 deferrals. If they had issued another wave of invites they would have accumulated more Pro deferrals that they may feel the obligation to build for MY2023.

I would not be surprised if they did not allow deferrals in the cleanup wave for that reason.

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I think you’re correct. It would be nice if they were actually committed to supplying the $40K truck they touted from the reveal on out, in significant numbers. But nooo…gotta make that quick buck.

FordLightningMan said:

My biggest complaint with the XLT SR is no heated seats. In the $50k+ price range, heated seats are almost always a feature. With a EV, it is recommended by manufacturers to use heated seats as a primary heat source. Forced air heating uses far more battery and is inefficient, so this is a major design flaw with the 2022 XLT. I still made the purchase because the XLT SR has a lot of features, but I'm sure I'll be complaining about the seats for as many years as I own the truck.

Regarding conversion rates, this ties into my first point. I'm sure that there are a lot of people who didn't like the option packages, which are poorly conceived, and they walked. Minimum cost of ER being the other obvious thing pushing people away. I'd bet many Lightning reservation holders would be first time EV buyers. A 230 mile range results in huge range anxiety for new EV buyers, a $74k price for a 300 mile range results in huge wallet anxiety.

One more point, it's really easy to make a $100 down payment, it's much more challenging to buy something that costs over $50k. The barrier to entry to reserve was very low. I imagine the conversion rate on the Cybertruck will be very similar for this reason. If the Lightning required a $5k reservation, I am certain conversion rate would be much higher.

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For me the ER was not about range anxiety. We had a 239 mile range Chevy bolt, and have a 220 mile range Volvo xc40 EV. In the winter 300 miles will become 180 to 200 very quickly. If only 65-70 percent is really useable routinely or in a long drive situation (80 down to 10 to 15 percent) then range is 120 to 130 miles between fast charges. Also the ER pack will put miles back in faster. If both trucks charge at 150kw though 60 percent and then tapper through 80 in percent, the ER battery gets more kw at the faster rate. It is also likely that the ER should be under less stress at the 150kw charge rate because the fraction of C is less due to the larger capacity.

I have a CT reservation and a Silverado EV reservation. If the reservation amount was higher, then I would have been more selective about which one I wanted. If you are actually going to purchase a truck with a 50k to 100k price, then 100 dollars is round-off error. My personal conversion rate is likely going to be 33 percent. Not having enough of the pro or xlt sr trucks available for order certainly hurt the conversion rate. Pricing the xlt er so close to the lariat hurt those sales. 100 dollars was easy money to put down for a 40k truck, but pulling the trigger on an 80k vehicle is a bridge too far for many.