Predictions for dates for media reviews, EPA range, etc.

[vandy1981]

I still haven't heard anything about media events or EPA ratings for the Lightning. We may be able to glean predictions from the Mach-E roll-out:

23 November 2020-EPA ranges released​

27 November 2020-First retail order build date (per MachE forums)​

10 December 2020-"First impressions (no driving impressions)" media embargo lifted​

15 December 2020-"First drive" media embargo lifted​

31 December 2020-First retail order delivery​

20 January 2021-First FCTP (mannequin) deliveries​

Because I'm bored, I extrapolated to the data we have for the Lightning build dates:

14 April 2022-EPA ranges released (actually 14 March )​

18 April 2022-First retail order build date (actually around 21 April, although some unconfirmed reports of earlier builds. Some fleet orders documented as early as 15 March)​

1 May 2022-"First impressions (no driving impressions)" media embargo lifted (actually 2 May)​

6 May 2022-"First drive" media embargo lifted (actually 11 May)​

22 May 2022-First retail order delivery (actually 26 May)​

11 June 2022-First FCTP (mannequin) deliveries (actually 25 May)​

I know we can't really expect this to be accurate but I'm curious to hear predictions from other people.

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[greenne]

I still haven't heard anything about media events or EPA ratings for the Lightning. We may be able to glean predictions from the Mach-E roll-out:

23 November 2020-EPA ranges released​

27 November 2020-First retail order build date (per MachE forums)​

10 December 2020-"First impressions (no driving impressions)" media embargo lifted​

15 December 2020-"First drive" media embargo lifted​

31 December 2020-First retail order delivery​

20 January 2021-First FCTP (mannequin) deliveries​

Because I'm bored, I extrapolated to the data we have for the Lightning build dates:

14 April 2022-EPA ranges released​

18 April 2022-First retail order build date​

1 May 2022-"First impressions (no driving impressions)" media embargo lifted​

6 May 2022-"First drive" media embargo lifted​

22 May 2022-First retail order delivery​

11 June 2022-First FCTP (mannequin) deliveries​

I know we can't really expect this to be accurate but I'm curious to hear predictions from other people.

Seems reasonable...I'll take comfort in the fact there will be some reviews, range tests, and EPA range results before Ford opens the order books for the MY2023 trucks.

 

[LightningShow]

I think we'll see reviews sooner. The Lightning has much broader appeal and demand than the Mach-E and, obviously, being the #1 selling model in the US puts a big spotlight on it. IIRC they are starting mannequin builds in the next week or two. I don't think we'll get to May without some in-depth reviews. I didn't follow the Mach-E rollout so I don't know how much press they had on it before launch but they've really been pushing the Lighting. Pretty much every auto journo has had ride alongs and time to do detailed feature reviews with the truck. I wouldn't be surprised if they did something like they did for the Bronco where they had regional press junkets where lots of journos got to have first hand experience with the vehicle.

 

[vandy1981]

I think we'll see reviews sooner. The Lightning has much broader appeal and demand than the Mach-E and, obviously, being the #1 selling model in the US puts a big spotlight on it. IIRC they are starting mannequin builds in the next week or two. I don't think we'll get to May without some in-depth reviews. I didn't follow the Mach-E rollout so I don't know how much press they had on it before launch but they've really been pushing the Lighting. Pretty much every auto journo has had ride alongs and time to do detailed feature reviews with the truck. I wouldn't be surprised if they did something like they did for the Bronco where they had regional press junkets where lots of journos got to have first hand experience with the vehicle.

I guess the first drives wouldn't add much to what we already know. What I'm most interested in is the charging curve and 70mph highway range and towing tests, which wouldn't be covered in a first drive press junkets.

I'm also mildly interested in 0-60 times and whether it will be faster than my I-Pace.

 

[greenne]

I guess the first waves wouldn't add much to what we already know. What I'm most interested in is the charging curve and 70mph highway range and towing tests, which wouldn't be covered in a first drive press junkets.

I'm also mildly interested in 0-60 times and whether it will be faster than my I-Pace.

"Real world" 70mph range and charge curve/time will be a make or break for me. I may wait for my silverado EV reservation if the Lightning disappoints....

 

[LightningShow]

I guess the first waves wouldn't add much to what we already know. What I'm most interested in is the charging curve and 70mph highway range and towing tests, which wouldn't be covered in a first drive press junkets.

I'm also mildly interested in 0-60 times and whether it will be faster than my I-Pace.

Yeah, aside from the final EPA number, which will come much earlier, the big ones are highway range and charging.

I just know the thing is going to be stupid fast for a truck. Faster than anyone would ever need a truck to go. It's still not going to be able to turn any faster than the regular F-150, maybe a little due to the lower COG and independent rear suspension, but not "fast". Fast for a truck is perfectly fine with me.

 

[LightningShow]

On the InsideEVs podcast Friday, Moloughney was saying he didn’t think they would let him do a charging and range test until after customer orders started delivering because they are often tweaking software right up until the last second.

 

[beatle]

On the InsideEVs podcast Friday, Moloughney was saying he didn’t think they would let him do a charging and range test until after customer orders started delivering because they are often tweaking software right up until the last second.

Hopefully beyond the last second. I'd eventually like to see charging rates over 200kw, perhaps 250kw.

The MachE premium with an 88kwh battery can also charge at 150kw, or about 1.7C.
A Model 3 can do over 3C (250kw into an 81kwh pack).
The Lightning ER with a 131kwh battery charging at 150kw is only 1.14C.

 

[vandy1981]

Hopefully beyond the last second. I'd eventually like to see charging rates over 200kw, perhaps 250kw.

250kw won't unless Ford changes to an 800 volt system. That requires different hardware and I doubt that will happen in this generation. CharIN limits the CCS2 standard to 500 amps at the tap. 200kW@400V would max that out.

Tesla is able to squeeze more amperage out of their superchargers because they use proprietary software/hardware that doesn't conform to CharIN.

 

[LightningShow]

It would be cool if they could up the Lightning to 200kW but I can live with 150kW. I don't know what the charging curve will look like but if it can take 150kW from 10-80% that would be awesome.

 

[Vorador]

It would be cool if they could up the Lightning to 200kW but I can live with 150kW. I don't know what the charging curve will look like but if it can take 150kW from 10-80% that would be awesome.

Ford claims 41 minutes to charge from 15% to 80%, which would require about 124 kWh average over the 41 minutes.

 

[LightningShow]

If they can up that to 200kW from 15-80% then you could get 208 miles in 24 minutes.

We can dream can't we?

 

[LightningShow]

Just watching the InsideEVs podcast, Kyle Conner said he's going to be at a Lightning press drive on Tuesday and the embargo on driving impressions is May 10th.

 

[vandy1981]

Just watching the InsideEVs podcast, Kyle Conner said he's going to be at a Lightning press drive on Tuesday and the embargo on driving impressions is May 10th.

Didn't notice your comment until after I posted a separate thread. Another thing they mentioned is that Farley said 2,000 units had been produced as of 4/26.

 

[LightningShow]

No worries, it probably deserves its own thread.

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