Is the "used" market normal for F150 depreciation at this point? Or is it worse?

[DGDo]

Supply and demand aren't aligned yet. Eventually, interest rates are going to rise enough that demand will decline.

Ford hasn't fully debugged the technology and the manufacturing ramp hasn't really kicked in yet. Supply will be constrained until the middle of 2023. Then, I expect there will be plenty of product availability and price flexibility with depreciation coming into line with EV market conditions.

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[pc500]

This post illustrates the truth about what we've been seeing in EVs for years. I've owned 2 Volts, 1 Bolt, and now a Tesla. I don't think that until these things become completely mainstream and battery swap/repair is completely simple and modular, that we'll have low depreciation on the vehicles. The thing is, an EV is like buying a cell phone these days. There is a lot of innovation and new features, or "Rev 2 is just around the corner", and people will always want the latest and greatest unless the price is significantly lower for the older model. I don't plan to even keep a gas car anymore for more than 5 years, maybe more than 3. There's so much tech in the cars these days that the safe bet is always owning within the warranty period.

Besides that, you only get the $7,500 credit once, so expect that the original purchaser is going to automatically depreciate at least $7,500 as soon as they buy it. Nobody's gonna pay full price and NOT get the credit.

The only sad thing about the Lariat LR being in the $75K range is that if I could have bought one in that price, I may not have bought my Tesla. Ford's price increase(s) completely screwed them from fulfilling as many orders as they had the potential to fill. They'll need to bring that back down by production efficiencies if they want to see indefinite large volumes of orders. This is a sad fact, because as a whole, the world will benefit far more from large vehicles like trucks becoming EVs than it will from moving people driving economy cars into electric economy cars.

Teslas have held pretty normal (if not better than normal) depreciation. However I am seeing positive signs long range EVs are holding their value better.

 

[pc500]

My guess is those diesels were high torque but low HP, hurting you on acceleration. Electric motors like to spin, so you get high torque and high HP together.

It also isn't all about max power, you need to size the components large enough to not overheat at sustained load (more power and more torque).

A motor can have relatively low horsepower and torque but be rated for continous non-overheating duty (IE: Electric boat motors). You're right, it does have to be designed for the application, but it doens't necessarily need to have high HP/Torque peak ratings at all.

 

[sotek2345]

A motor can have relatively low horsepower and torque but be rated for continous non-overheating duty (IE: Electric boat motors). You're right, it does have to be designed for the application, but it doens't necessarily need to have high HP/Torque peak ratings at all.

Agreed, but the cost of those two options are effectively the same (more conductor to keep temps down under continuous load = more conductor to handle higher peak current).

Higher acceleration comes, almost, for free in EVs so why not!

Example - if you could pay $60,000 for an EV truck that can tow 10k lbs, or pay $60,200 for that same truck and towing that can also do 0-60 in under 4 seconds, how many would really opt to save a couple hundred bucks?

 

[ivan256]

When you're price comparing on Cars & Bids, remember that the final price is before the buyer's fee.

Also, you should take into account whether the prices you see there are for dealer demo units. No sane person is going to pay full price for a truck that customers and sales managers hooned for a year.

I wouldn't expect perpetual low depreciation either though; they're going to depreciate.

 

[pc500]

When you're price comparing on Cars & Bids, remember that the final price is before the buyer's fee.

Also, you should take into account whether the prices you see there are for dealer demo units. No sane person is going to pay full price for a truck that customers and sales managers hooned for a year.

I wouldn't expect perpetual low depreciation either though; they're going to depreciate.

Understood, but I don't see the 80k units moving either (and some of these have 200 miles).

I just want to see gas f150 depreciation levels. They aren't Tacoma good, but they aren't mercedes bad. 60% residual after 3 years would be fine. The instance 15k (18%) hit seems high, even in the drive off the dealer lot space.

It's probaly temporary due to the price hike though.

 

[astricklin]

An SR will likely be noticeably slower off the line once it gets the LFP battery. I don’t think you’ll need to wait for next gen.

Ya but truthfully, we don't need a ton of 4 second 6000+ lbs trucks out there. People don't understand how to drive something like that. Especially with a lot of people having the lightning as their first fullsize pickup truck.

 

[bosox8]

Ya but truthfully, we don't need a ton of 4 second 6000+ lbs trucks out there. People don't understand how to drive something like that. Especially with a lot of people having the lightning as their first fullsize pickup truck.

Do you know a lot of irresponsible people buying $80K+ trucks?

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