Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[F-150 Prius]

2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
2025: 160,000 on the TE1 platform
2026: Maybe 240,000?
2027: Maybe 320,000?

Currently there are 120,000+ reservations. I reserved mine on Aug 1, with a #11118xxx. This is convenient for me, because I wasn't planning to buy until the end of 2023, into 2024 anyway.

Those are the numbers (2022 thru 2025) that Ford has released to the press.
I'm not optimistic I'll get one in '22, but fingers crossed.

Good luck with those numbers. The current Lightning plant can only run 12 to 14 trucks an hour.

Ford said they're dropping "another" $850 million into increased production capacity.
If I recall correctly, they also said there would be other PHEVs and a BEV or two (maybe under the Lincoln brand) so Ford is balls outs on EVs … I think all the major carmakers are staring down the barrel of legislation around 2030 time frame.

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[F-150 Prius]

I'm saying the ones <10813xxx are rare compared to >10813xxx. They were either sporadically given out in that range, or they were given out some other way, IMO.

10830xxx and I clicked on the button within milliseconds to get the order in … : |
I guess I'm looking at 2023 … ffs … anyway … who has the low numbers at the Deli?

 

[Pioneer74]

Those are the numbers (2022 thru 2025) that Ford has released to the press.
I'm not optimistic I'll get one in '22, but fingers crossed.

Ford said they're dropping "another" $850 million into increased production capacity.
If I recall correctly, they also said there would be other PHEVs and a BEV or two (maybe under the Lincoln brand) so Ford is balls outs on EVs … I think all the major carmakers are staring down the barrel of legislation around 2030 time frame.

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

 

[F-150 Prius]

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

I think what you're saying is valid and the same thing happened at Tesla … Musk says "one million!" and the people who have to make it happen know he's just talking.
I don't know, but my guess would be there has to be a new plant for the new TE1 platform and they have to drop some drive-train options and build the Lightning on the same line as they build say a PHEV along with the existing Hybrid to replace maybe the 2.7 EcoBoost?
Seems to me, Ford could be building a million Lightnings in 2022 and not keep up with demand.
Offer it with a factor bed cap so it's a van with side-load windows and they have a "last mile" half ton. Rivian is building 800,000 of those for Amazon.
Obviously every freight and fleet operator wants to swap out their 10-20 mpg gas vehicles that do less than 300 miles per route, especially city and suburban slow-n-go averaging speeds that suit electric vehicles (with a lot of braking, not a lot of high speed head-wind and a lot of the time an EV is stationary during a delivery or at an intersection when the battery is not wasting energy like an ICE.)
Whatever the reason(s) for Ford not building more Lightnings sooner, it's not for lack of demand.

 

[sotek2345]

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

 

[BottledLightning]

Hello! Just wanted to jump in very quickly. I work at a dealership and order nearly all of our retail units (that would be a one on one build with a customer, not stock which ends up on lots). I've been following this and other forums for some time and just would like to chime in briefly. On all factory orders you should always expect a long wait even under normal circumstances on a vehicle Ford builds constantly.

While it is fun to speculate where you might fall I strongly urge you to be ready for shockingly long waits. Parts are king when it comes to production and since it takes years to plan for commodity purchasing if the orders don't come in right on the head with Ford's estimates (i'm talking mix of standard vs large batteries, Platinum vs Pro etc) then even an early reservation holder (in regards to time places) can be kicked far back if they pick excessively high demand items. I'm super excited to start ordering Lightnings for our guests but definitely not looking forward to how much I'll have to realign customer expectations.

My advise in a nutshell, set yourself up to be pleasantly surprised and not constantly bummed.

 

[Pioneer74]

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

Batteries may be a constraint now. But when they aren't, the current assembly plant will be.

Reuters reported that Ford intends an annual production of 80,000 in 2024, up from its previous target of more than 40,000.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...ord-f-150-lightning-ford-electric/8254023002/

That seems about right. 3 crews, 50 weeks a year = 84k.

 

[sotek2345]

Hello! Just wanted to jump in very quickly. I work at a dealership and order nearly all of our retail units (that would be a one on one build with a customer, not stock which ends up on lots). I've been following this and other forums for some time and just would like to chime in briefly. On all factory orders you should always expect a long wait even under normal circumstances on a vehicle Ford builds constantly.

While it is fun to speculate where you might fall I strongly urge you to be ready for shockingly long waits. Parts are king when it comes to production and since it takes years to plan for commodity purchasing if the orders don't come in right on the head with Ford's estimates (i'm talking mix of standard vs large batteries, Platinum vs Pro etc) then even an early reservation holder (in regards to time places) can be kicked far back if they pick excessively high demand items. I'm super excited to start ordering Lightnings for our guests but definitely not looking forward to how much I'll have to realign customer expectations.

My advise in a nutshell, set yourself up to be pleasantly surprised and not constantly bummed.

Given that, do you expect a large number of current reservation holders to be bumped completely out of this generation of Lightning (and into the planned 2025 refresh)? In other words, is the Gen 1 electric lightning already sold out?

 

[F-150 Prius]

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

Batteries are definitely the battleground. Carmakers want to make their own, battery makers want to leapfrog each other with technology. Nobody wants to start with a 2021 technology and deliver a vehicle in 2025 that's obsolescent. So they have a two-pronged approach:
1) complain to government to get tax dollars for raw materials and manufacturing (part of this campaign is to complain about supply shortages and production constraints) with the rationale (coercion) of saying prices go up if supply can meet demand and unemployment goes up if there's a limit on production capacity.
2) design with "modular, scalable" components to be able to swap out the battery, battery controller and charging without retooling.

The carmakers also need two faces: one smiles at the investors and says they'll build a million, the other tries to deceive competitors with misleading messages of what they're doing and when it will be done. This is more difficult in the auto industry, which tends to leak like sieve.

 

[Pioneer74]

Given that, do you expect a large number of current reservation holders to be bumped completely out of this generation of Lightning (and into the planned 2025 refresh)? In other words, is the Gen 1 electric lightning already sold out?

The new Lightning won't be a refresh. It will launch on an all new platform. 2026 model launching in 2025 calendar year.

 

[sotek2345]

The new Lightning won't be a refresh. It will launch on an all new platform. 2026 model launching in 2025 calendar year.

I still have the same question - do we think current (or near term future) reservation holders will be pushed out that far (high conversion rate and Ford coming in lower than projected for annual production)

 

[BottledLightning]

Given that, do you expect a large number of current reservation holders to be bumped completely out of this generation of Lightning (and into the planned 2025 refresh)? In other words, is the Gen 1 electric lightning already sold out?

It's hard to say but If you are a current reservation holder my hunch is not likely. Nationwide Bronco had about 60% of reservations actually convert to orders. I assume Lightning will be a smaller percentage than that but could be wrong. We tried guessing how many reservations our dealership would get the night of the reveal and they came in way above our guesses. some of the current unknown in terms of reservations is how many hand raisers are there in the commercial realm, how many demo units (if any, though they have done them for Bronco, Bronco Sport, and Mach-E) will be built, and will there be stock units (personal guess is they will try to avoid that)? Ford does not count commercial hand raisers as reservation holders and I haven't found a report as to how many there are.

 

[Pioneer74]

I still have the same question - do we think current (or near term future) reservation holders will be pushed out that far (high conversion rate and Ford coming in lower than projected for annual production)

Probably not. If you go by the numbers in the article I linked, it would be 15k next year, 55k for 2023 and 80k every year after that. That's 150k for the first 3 years.

2022 15k
2023 55k
2024 80k
2025 80k

230k total.

 

[Maxx]

10830xxx and I clicked on the button within milliseconds to get the order in … : |

I am at 10830xxx as well but I did it at the end of presentation with some delays. If you did it when it opened, then the server theory is correct and our numbers are not that meaningful. But according to ford, all of us in that day are within the first 20K so if 70% go through with the order 14,000 should cover everyone that made reservation in the first 12 hours. of course there are all kinds of unforseen complications that may result in Ford not producing that 15,000 in 2022. Let's hope that is not the case.

 

[sotek2345]

Probably not. If you go by the numbers in the article I linked, it would be 15k next year, 55k for 2023 and 80k every year after that. That's 150k for the first 3 years.

2022 15k
2023 55k
2024 80k
2025 80k

330k total.

230k total, not 330k right? Also these are targets and Ford may not be able to hit them.

We also don't know about commercial orders yet. If they are of the same magnitude as retail, and there is a high conversion rate that could be ~200k lightnings already spoken for. That is very close to 230k production target.

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