Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Pioneer74]

230k total, not 330k right? Also these are targets and Ford may not be able to hit them.

We also don't know about commercial orders yet. If they are of the same magnitude as retail, and there is a high conversion rate that could be ~200k lightnings already spoken for. That is very close to 230k production target.

Whoops. Carried a one I shouldn't have.

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[F-150 Prius]

I am at 10830xxx as well but I did it at the end of presentation with some delays. If you did it when it opened, then the server theory is correct and our numbers are not that meaningful. But according to ford, all of us in that day are within the first 20K so if 70% go through with the order 14,000 should cover everyone that made reservation in the first 12 hours. of course there are all kinds of unforseen complications that may result in Ford not producing that 15,000 in 2022. Let's hope that is not the case.

I'm with your optimism, but in marketing, at least if I applied enterprise technology marketing principles to the auto industry, what I see them doing is calc'ing all factors into a number that the board approves. That number includes what @Pioneer74 tells us:

I work at DTP. The plant was only set up to run 12 jobs per hour. They are trying to get it to 14. We already run 7 days a week. 3 crews max production is around 87k a year, with no down weeks.

We would be able to run Super Weekends to get more production, but you have to shut down sooner or later for maintenance.

This results in a formula to guesstimate based on what's happened with other vehicles, the rate of attrition (reservations that don't turn into orders) and production planning (supply side logistics) with no idea of what happens if a disease sweeps through the factory or slows the economy, etc. So I wouldn't hold anyone to those numbers; I'm just pleased to see decent sized numbers and a realistic 2023-2025 time frame.
If the F-150 Lightning team get lucky and find themselves with the wind in their favor and able to play their A game, they'll want to exceed those numbers, exceed in quality and get five star reviews in the initial ownership experience (especially road trip charging) so that word of mouth is the same excitement that Tesla used to create despite poor quality and falling short of production goals … : )

 

[cstring]

So if these production numbers are true then we can basically assume the 7500 EV credit will be exhausted for anyone that is not in the first batch of 15,000 delivery? I am a little bummed that I reserve a couple of days after the reveal...

 

[Pioneer74]

So if these production numbers are true then we can basically assume the 7500 EV credit will be exhausted for anyone that is not in the first batch of 15,000 delivery? I am a little bummed that I reserve a couple of days after the reveal...

That's what I'm thinking. I reserved on the 26th, one week after reveal, and I'm thinking if everybody in front of me doesn't cancel their reservation, I'll be lucky to get mine in middle to late 2023.

Between the Ecape plug in hybrid, Lightning, Transit EV and Mach-E the remaining credits will go fast

 

[greenne]

That's what I'm thinking. I reserved on the 26th, one week after reveal, and I'm thinking if everybody in front of me doesn't cancel their reservation, I'll be lucky to get mine in middle to late 2023.

Between the Ecape plug in hybrid, Lightning, Transit EV and Mach-E the remaining credits will go fast

Thats assuming the credit doesn't get expanded and/or extended. There's lots of signs it will be...

 

[Pioneer74]

Thats assuming the credit doesn't get expanded and/or extended. There's lots of signs it will be...

With this political climate, I'm not taking anything into consideration until something is signed. Too many people with too many angles on both sides of the isle.

 

[bfjeld]

I doubt everyone who wants one will get one but I think at least the first 20,000 reservation holders will. I know you are intentionally being over-optimistic but I did get my Mach E at 0.9% for 48 months and X-plan pricing.

Yes there was a “hint” of sarcasm in there. Haha
They’ve already stated a new platform coming for the truck in a few years so leasing is probably the way to go?

 

[ShirBlackspots]

Probably not. If you go by the numbers in the article I linked, it would be 15k next year, 55k for 2023 and 80k every year after that. That's 150k for the first 3 years.

2022 15k
2023 55k
2024 80k
2025 80k

230k total.

That's supposed to be 160,000 in 2025 when they switch to the TE1 platform.

Remember, the next year's model year starts in the 4th quarter of the previous year (that would be September. Sometimes as early as the 3rd quarter - or July)

 

[shutterbug]

That's what I'm thinking. I reserved on the 26th, one week after reveal, and I'm thinking if everybody in front of me doesn't cancel their reservation, I'll be lucky to get mine in middle to late 2023.

Between the Ecape plug in hybrid, Lightning, Transit EV and Mach-E the remaining credits will go fast

If there are only 15,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. My guess is that Ford will hit their limit at the end of 2022, which means you will have 1st half of 2023 to buy a vehicle and still qualify for full credit.

 

[Pioneer74]

That's supposed to be 160,000 in 2025 when they switch to the TE1 platform.

Remember, the next year's model year starts in the 4th quarter of the previous year (that would be September. Sometimes as early as the 3rd quarter - or July)

New platform will be 2026 model year.

 

[Pioneer74]

If there are only 15,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. My guess is that Ford will hit their limit at the end of 2022, which means you will have 1st half of 2023 to buy a vehicle and still qualify for full credit.

We'll see. I'm going to try to double-dip with a Mach-E. The wife and I have 2 leases and both end in the middle of 2023.

 

[Sapphire]

Granger is well below MSRP. Shoot them a message, they're good people and they'll answer your questions to the best of their ability (even if you don't have a reservation with them).

I agree, I’m planning to message them once pricing is available and they know what they’ll be able to offer. I think I read a message from one of them on here saying they don’t know yet.

 

[Granger Ford]

This is encouraging. I fully expect my local dealer to tell me to get bent when I ask for a bit below or at MSRP. If we have an ordering window, that would at least give me some time to check other dealers. I’m willing to drive out to @Granger Ford too, depending on whether they are able to go below MSRP, based on the stellar feedback.

Pm us for pricing. We cannot advertise pricing below MSRP.

Our business model with the lightning falls in line with our policy on F-150. ? It's well known how we price our F-150s here.

Please PM me for more information. If you'd like 100% confirmation.

 

[Lime Green]

You can get a pro with extended range if you’re a commercial customer. ??‍?

Well, I am a commercial customer and I have a Pro reservation and have been told I can get the extended battery. There are some catches though…. I almost certainly won’t be getting it in 2022 and now maybe not until 2023 if these quantities and demand numbers are an indicator. Large fleet customers have priority and that may very well push my order into ‘23. I also have two regular reservations. The dealership and I have basically determined, based on available info, that I can get an XLT from one of my regular reservations at a similar price point to the Pro since I can do better than X-Plan. And that reservation was made just minutes after the reveal event ended. I have another reservation made about the time the reservations went live as the event was about to start. I plan on using that for my personal truck in Lariat+ or Platinum trim.

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

This. All known limitations are due to battery availability. There may well indeed be other parts constraints, but none that will hold up anything more than the batteries. The Lightning production at the Rouge should be quite capable to ramp up serious quantity if batteries and all other components are available. …This is going to take some time.

 

[Granger Ford]

I'm surprised they volume is so low. I guess it's good to aim low to start. I know the battery production takes a long runway (think 12 months+) to get orders in. So if you haven't reserved, expect a wait.

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