Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Blainestang]

They aren’t even close to sequential. Multiple servers were dispensing numbers in separated sets of 1000s simultaneously.
For example 10813750 is a later reservation than 10815005.

They are BROADLY sequential, like I said. Yeah, if you and I were ~2k actual reservations apart, we might have numbers in the wrong order, but if you reserve now, you're not going to get a lower number than someone who reserved on Day 1. The numbers may be +/- 5k, for instance, but they're not completely random. They're not all grabbing from a completely different group of numbers (no duplicates). If you did a scatter plot of the reservations based on reservation number and actual order of reservation, it would clearly show a relationship between the two. Later reservations *generally* get higher numbers, outside of a relatively small +/- range. That's what I mean by broadly sequential.

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[thevofl]

I apologize in advance. I feel like I am hogging this thread. I'll stop after this.

You high reservation holders don't completely despair. Ford is making the rules and only they know what they are and we will never know what happens on the inside. If you really really want a Lightning, stay in the game. If not, get your $100 back now and help move up real wannas.

If anything, Ford is a master of marketing. High number holders could be bumped if they are in a smaller state. Ford may want representative Lightnings sprinkled around for publicity. When I got my first hybrid. local news covered it after a call from the dealer and my photo was posted in the dealer's for years.

Each dealer may get one for their showroom and they will promptly put a "SOLD" sign on it, sold or not. Chevrolet Dealers do this for Corvettes. Friends of Dealers will end up with this Lightning, reserved or not.

Ford has a great database of prospective buyer profiles they use extensively in their email campaigns. If they believe you will be a "Good Ambassador" you may get bumped. If you are a "Personality" or "High Profile" you may get bumped.

I owned and moderated a Ford-related forum for 16 years and I know that Ford monitored threads for input. I know for sure because I chatted offline for years with these watchers. Super-active members may get bumped.

If you are a professional engineer, electrician or manage a fleet you may get bumped.

If you live in an extreme climate Ford may want to monitor your Lightning as a test and you may get bumped.

And on and on. It is a bit like UFO Conspiracy. We can never know what they know. After spending Billions on this new truck Ford will use every advantage they can to guarantee success. Ford will remember Edsel forever. I am sure the reservation process is no strict democracy, but that is OK with me.

Hey Ford, if you are reading this,

I drive by the Tesla plant in Fremont CA. I would be happy to "socialize" and be visible in the neighborhood with my new Lightning. So if you want to have a presence in the competition's home area, I would not object to being bumped.

Just putting this out there.

Rob

 

[TN F-150]

So Ford has published preliminary MSRP pricing for its 2022 production run. And has generated over 120k+ reservations. The 2022 production run will be limited to ~15k vehicles. And sadly I have a much later reservation number. So I’m curious whether Ford will honor 2022 MSRP prices for those reservation holders that won’t be able to get (order) a Lightning until 2023 or 2024?

 

[BottledLightning]

So Ford has published preliminary MSRP pricing for its 2022 production run. And has generated over 120k+ reservations. The 2022 production run will be limited to ~15k vehicles. And sadly I have a much later reservation number. So I’m curious whether Ford will honor 2022 MSRP prices for those reservation holders that won’t be able to get (order) a Lightning until 2023 or 2024?

If they do what they did on Bronco (which they are under no obligation to do) there will be a cut off point for price protection. On Bronco you had to have a reservation or an order by March 19th of this year (that was exactly two months after ordering started). We'll see if Lightning goes the same route but as I always say, set yourself up to be pleasantly surprised and not disappointed.

 

[TN F-150]

So are you saying they convert the existing reservations to orders, but then don’t fulfill them until 2023 or 2024?

 

[sotek2345]

So are you saying they convert the existing reservations to orders, but then don’t fulfill them until 2023 or 2024?

I believe the normal procedure is they would convert you to an order (likely this fall), but then if they can't fill it you update the order to fi the next model year pricing and packages (repeat until they can fill your order)

 

[TN F-150]

And I read somewhere here that upon ordering there’s a deposit due ; perhaps $2,000 to $2,500?

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

Any additional deposit required is between you and your dealer. I did not pay an additional deposit on my Bronco order and I assume that a dealer will not require a deposit on the Lightning. A dealer would LOVE you to decline delivery so they can slap ADM on it.

 

[TN F-150]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

 

[Maxx]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

If there was a $2000 deposit, it would not go to Ford. So it can't add up to $120m.

 

[TN F-150]

That’s almost worse than Ford getting it. So now I may have my $2,000 deposit sitting at a dealership for 2-3 years?

 

[Maxx]

That’s almost worse than Ford getting it. So now I may have my $2,000 deposit sitting at a dealership for 2-3 years?

I am fairly sure you can find a dealer in your state that does not require it and when you switch to them, you will get your $100 back so you will have no deposit after you order.

 

[TN F-150]

Maxx
My problem with my perception of this process is two-fold:
First there’s the money, but second there appears to be no binding agreement that results in a vehicle in a specified period of time. From what I’m hearing from those that replied is that, “delivery is a moving target that may get canceled and revised upwards in price.”

 

[shutterbug]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

When I placed reservation for Mustang Mach-E, the initial $500 deposit was charged to my credit card by Ford. Then when I converted to order, I got credit from Ford and a charge for the same amount from the dealer. With Lightning, the reservation deposit was from the dealer. So it's likely that Ford isn't even touching that $100.

 

[SteffanG]

They are BROADLY sequential, like I said. Yeah, if you and I were ~2k actual reservations apart, we might have numbers in the wrong order, but if you reserve now, you're not going to get a lower number than someone who reserved on Day 1. The numbers may be +/- 5k, for instance, but they're not completely random. They're not all grabbing from a completely different group of numbers (no duplicates). If you did a scatter plot of the reservations based on reservation number and actual order of reservation, it would clearly show a relationship between the two. Later reservations *generally* get higher numbers, outside of a relatively small +/- range. That's what I mean by broadly sequential.

I placed my order 20 mins after the presentation started and I am at 108271**

There is one I found on the lost of numbers who reserved on reveal day and it is 10841***

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