Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[PandaSlash]

I also got the same email "verifying my reservation". Also got the e-mail for the Chicago F-150 event this Thursday.

Do you mind sharing what date you got the Chicago event email? Was it also on the 5th?

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[Ford4Life2319]

Do you mind sharing what date you got the Chicago event email? Was it also on the 5th?

I got my e-mail on August 10th at 2:00 pm central.

 

[astricklin]

Ford looked at the demand generated by “other” BEV manufacturers, married that to the best selling vehicle in America and couldn’t predict the result?

I’m sorry, I don’t buy it.

Trouble with material deliveries or workforce or logistics I get that. But infrastructure should have been in place before the roll out.

This was a “Ready, Fire, Aim” debut.

15k first year production is pathetic.
It’s obvious they weren’t prepared, but it wasn’t because of market research. They jumped the gun.

I can’t believe they could be that naive and keep looking for other reasons why they would bow up right in the middle of a roll out. There has to be another motive.

The priced the Pro lower than a comparable xl ice truck....wtf do they think was going to happen? Even the standard range XLT isn't that much more expensive than a current XLT with the same cab/bed and 4wd.

 

[vandy1981]

This is just a guess:

It is possible that larger supply of chips and batteries won’t kick in until 2023-2024

It is possible BMS is not fully tested and 15K recall is better than 50K recall, Lightening is more likely to be stressed out by additional load more than Mach-E did due to towing and load.

It is possible that Ford is leaving some room for complications, expecting to start production in mid 2022. at the rate of 50K annually starting slow and ramping up which would mean around 15K for 22

I think first generation Lightening is mostly frankensteined to get it out the door quickly using as much of the ICE F150 as possible since they are created concurrently. If Ford is serious about BEVs they are designing a real BEV truck to replace ICE at some point. Frankly battery tech is not quite there yet. I am not sure if that is 2nd or 3rd gen but it takes a lot more time to produce at levels and prices ICE is being produced.

It's also possible that this is an "underpromising and overdelivering" situation. Would be a refreshing change from whatever automaker has been promising a Cybertruck.

 

[astricklin]

It's also possible that this is an "underpromising and overdelivering" situation. Would be a refreshing change from whatever automaker has been promising a Cybertruck.

I dunno...even with increased production, if I put in a reservation today, it's probably going to be 36 months before I get a truck, if things go smoothly. That's a long wait considering the initial deliveries are quoted to be in less than 12 months.

 

[vandy1981]

I also keep my vehicles for a long time, 20+ years. Just see my vehicle list to the left.
But now I’m wondering if the current battery pack is a short term solution that may be replace with solid state technology in the second edition. And maybe that’s why Ford is dragging their feet.

I would be shocked but delighted if solid state was ready for the mass market in 2025.

We are in the "smartphone era" of BEVs at the moment--there's always going to be a substantial spec upgrade around the corner.

 

[astricklin]

I would be shocked but delighted if solid state was ready for the mass market in 2025.

We are in the "smartphone era" of BEVs at the moment--there's always going to be a substantial spec upgrade around the corner.

It's probably best to lease a bev at the current time.
I feel that the lightning will meet my current needs and my needs for the next 5 years at least, if not longer. However I'd like to be able to reassess the situation in 3 years or so and see what has happened. Have prices come down significantly? Has new technology come out that makes the first gen truck completely obsolete.
People who leased the Nissan leaf early on dodged a bullet because the residual value ended up being way lower than Nissan had originally projected. People were able to walk away and let Nissan eat the depreciation. After a while Nissan was heavily discounting people's lease buyout to convince people to keep the cars.

On the flip side, if the lightning meets your needs, then you should be able to drive the thing forever so don't worry about depreciation and what might come out in the future.

 

[TN F-150]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

 

[Maxx]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

All true. Fleet customers don't have a lot of EV choices near Pro price. CT1 will not be ready anytime soon if ever but commercial customers with multiple reservations will have have some choices. If ford expect to make most of it's Pro money out of fleet services, commercial Pro customer is out of luck.

I for one will get a Pro for sure if it is available to me in 2022 but the closer the time gap between CT and Pro, the less likely I get the Pro.

 

[sotek2345]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

To be fair, if this truck is as successful / desired for commercial use as many of us suspect, Ford could easily divert all of this generation Lightning production (through 2025)to fleet owners leaving few (if any) for retail customers.

 

[SteffanG]

Ford may avoid selling the pro to retail customers by putting them off and prioritizing the lariat/platinum trims since they make more money on those ones. Them giving all the commercial customers a bunch of pro trucks instead of retail lariat/platinum likely won't happen as any company wants to sell the higher dollar vehicles as much as they can. They may say that all of them will be made at the same time, but behind closed doors they may also prioritize the higher margin trucks.

 

[Skynetf150]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

I think that's what I'm going to do wait for the next gen 2025 model and hopefully it will have a regular cab option

 

[wingfiry]

I would be shocked but delighted if solid state was ready for the mass market in 2025.

We are in the "smartphone era" of BEVs at the moment--there's always going to be a substantial spec upgrade around the corner.

They've been promising solid state batteries for smartphones for at least 6 years now. I'm certainly not going to hold my breath for SSBs for vehicles.

 

[greenne]

They've been promising solid state batteries for smartphones for at least 6 years now. I'm certainly not going to hold my breath for SSBs for vehicles.

I think they are going to proceed very carefully on any type of battery technology. Nobody wants another Chevy Bolt or Samsung Note 7 type situation....

 

[Ciancagl]

How are we so sure the people that “reserved” first are going to get them first? We don’t think they have a “x” amount allotted to specific regions/dealers based off orders?

From a delivery/logistics standpoint, I cant see a world where they’re basically leaving it up to the consumer as to where the first 15k will be delivered and what trim level they will be.

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