Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Losi]

If it’s any consolation I will be taking delivery probably somewhere around 2030, order date 7/24 #11104336/Hawaii. Aloha

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[sotek2345]

I'm not getting the math here. If you're reservation around 90k, then 66% of 90k is 59,400 that would put you solid in 2023. (15k first year, additional 55k 2nd year)

Yeah, with luck it might be a 2024. 60k total production by the end of 2024,which is where I am. Then you have to add a few months for shipping to the dealer. So if they hold those numbers it is spring 2024.

If they are counting years starting with spring of 2022 (production start), then I would be late into 2024 which would be a 2025 model year.

 

[greenne]

Yeah, with luck it might be a 2024. 60k total production by the end of 2024,which is where I am. Then you have to add a few months for shipping to the dealer. So if they hold those numbers it is spring 2024.

If they are counting years starting with spring of 2022 (production start), then I would be late into 2024 which would be a 2025 model year.

You mean 60-70k by the end of 2023....

15k in Spring - Dec 2022
additional 55k in 2023

70k by Dec 2023(maybe?)

 

[Sdctcher]

I apologize in advance. I feel like I am hogging this thread. I'll stop after this.

You high reservation holders don't completely despair. Ford is making the rules and only they know what they are and we will never know what happens on the inside. If you really really want a Lightning, stay in the game. If not, get your $100 back now and help move up real wannas.

If anything, Ford is a master of marketing. High number holders could be bumped if they are in a smaller state. Ford may want representative Lightnings sprinkled around for publicity. When I got my first hybrid. local news covered it after a call from the dealer and my photo was posted in the dealer's for years.

Each dealer may get one for their showroom and they will promptly put a "SOLD" sign on it, sold or not. Chevrolet Dealers do this for Corvettes. Friends of Dealers will end up with this Lightning, reserved or not.

Ford has a great database of prospective buyer profiles they use extensively in their email campaigns. If they believe you will be a "Good Ambassador" you may get bumped. If you are a "Personality" or "High Profile" you may get bumped.

I owned and moderated a Ford-related forum for 16 years and I know that Ford monitored threads for input. I know for sure because I chatted offline for years with these watchers. Super-active members may get bumped.

If you are a professional engineer, electrician or manage a fleet you may get bumped.

If you live in an extreme climate Ford may want to monitor your Lightning as a test and you may get bumped.

And on and on. It is a bit like UFO Conspiracy. We can never know what they know. After spending Billions on this new truck Ford will use every advantage they can to guarantee success. Ford will remember Edsel forever. I am sure the reservation process is no strict democracy, but that is OK with me.

 

[sotek2345]

You mean 60-70k by the end of 2023....

15k in Spring - Dec 2022
additional 55k in 2023

70k by Dec 2023(maybe?)

OK, you made me feel a little better. Apparently I can't math tonight. I haz the dumb.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

I apologize in advance. I feel like I am hogging this thread. I'll stop after this.

You high reservation holders don't completely despair. Ford is making the rules and only they know what they are and we will never know what happens on the inside. If you really really want a Lightning, stay in the game. If not, get your $100 back now and help move up real wannas.

If anything, Ford is a master of marketing. High number holders could be bumped if they are in a smaller state. Ford may want representative Lightnings sprinkled around for publicity. When I got my first hybrid. local news covered it after a call from the dealer and my photo was posted in the dealer's for years.

Each dealer may get one for their showroom and they will promptly put a "SOLD" sign on it, sold or not. Chevrolet Dealers do this for Corvettes. Friends of Dealers will end up with this Lightning, reserved or not.

Ford has a great database of prospective buyer profiles they use extensively in their email campaigns. If they believe you will be a "Good Ambassador" you may get bumped. If you are a "Personality" or "High Profile" you may get bumped.

I owned and moderated a Ford-related forum for 16 years and I know that Ford monitored threads for input. I know for sure because I chatted offline for years with these watchers. Super-active members may get bumped.

If you are a professional engineer, electrician or manage a fleet you may get bumped.

If you live in an extreme climate Ford may want to monitor your Lightning as a test and you may get bumped.

And on and on. It is a bit like UFO Conspiracy. We can never know what they know. After spending Billions on this new truck Ford will use every advantage they can to guarantee success. Ford will remember Edsel forever. I am sure the reservation process is no strict democracy, but that is OK with me.

That’s some interesting stuff, thank you for sharing. See, i’m becoming a super active member already! None of the other reasons to get bumped apply, so, hey....

 

[TRP]

Mine is 10813663 . I reserved the second after the intro when the link popped up. I still don't think any of that number has anything to do with place in line. What it does represent is still a mystery.

What I know about that number is it represents ALL reservations, not just Lightnings. So you can't just look at them as Lightning reservations sequentially. Mine is 109----, I forget the last few, but the point is we are not 100000 places apart in Lightning reservations.

Now as far as what that means for when you get your and I get mine ?‍

 

[vandy1981]

Food for thought.. the conversion rate(reservation to order) for the Bronco was/is around 66%.

I can't imagine that the F150L conversion rate will be anywhere near that--the big Bronco is a singular vehicle competing against an already established competitor, whereas the F150L is going to be competing against other new BEV trucks for reservation follow-through. I personally know a few people who hold multiple reservations for different models (R1T, CT, etc.) and I would not be surprised if there's a lot more out there with low reservation numbers.

 

[TRP]

I can't imagine that the F150L conversion rate will be anywhere near that--the big Bronco is a singular vehicle competing against an already established competitor, whereas the F150L is going to be competing against other new BEV trucks for reservation follow-through. I personally know a few people who hold multiple reservations for different models (R1T, CT, etc.) and I would not be surprised if there's a lot more out there with low reservation numbers.

What I don't understand tho is that the 3 you mention, F150L, R1T, CT, are all very different vehicles.

F150L is, well, an F150 truck

R1T is smaller and geared towards the outdoor lifestyle folks. Cool truck, but not a F150. Closer to a Ranger in size.

CT, well, it's a CT and who knows when it will ever hit the streets. Just read of another push back on delivery time frame.

IMHO, you can compare them to one another. Other than being electric, and if that's your draw, there are cheaper options available.

To our point, will people drop out before delivery. Absolutely, in fact, I expect them to. Better for me as a late comer

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

remember we are all in 3000 lines. Let's say Ford gives one allocation to each dealer in the first round. I might be first in line at my small town dealer and you might be 10th in line at your large metro dealer. Even though you reserved earlier than me, I might jump you in line. The Ford "influencer" scenario mentioned above is also a real thing. Head over to the Bronco forum and see what a shit show it turned into.

You essentially paid $100 to provide a survey to Ford. They absolutely will NOT honor your timestamp in exact order so don't stress out over your timestamp. Keep you expectations in check...

 

[greenne]

FWIW, Ford announced they have 100k reservations for the Maverick. If they are using the same reservation system then that is a portion of the reservation numbers right there.

Ford Maverick tops 100,000 reservations as customers await production (autoblog.com)

I also imagine we'll see some cancelations if Rivians starts delivering in Sept like they have indicated....

 

[ChasingCoral]

Thank You. I did exactly what I hate others do. I failed to search the forum before asking a question.

Slightly longer answer: sort of.

 

[Shannon]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

 

[vandy1981]

Head over to the Bronco forum and see what a shit show it turned into.

Can you link to any threads you've been following that address this question?

 

[F150ROD]

Ford is moving to an order system much like Tesla's. I'm wondering if there will even be any on lots other than Demo's the first year. What I can say is good luck to buyers thinking they will be able to get one from the lot at a decent price.

Dealers: "This is a limited edition truck, only $15k were made worldwide" "Other dealers are charging up to $25K extra, we only want $15K" lol......... and this will be on a Pro or XLT.

Just a thought though, if the 2nd year model comes out in 2025 it might be worth it to place another $100 reservation and hope it gets converted to a second year model....hmmmm

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