Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[ChasingCoral]

I can't think of anything on the lightning that is actually new, new. The battery and motors are different than the mach-e but can be from the same supplier using the same manufacturing processes just a different design.

I think you’re right in general but not on the limiting supply: the batteries. LG makes the Mach E batteries while SKI will make the Lightning batteries

Ok so if 10% convert to orders then there's your 12k....I would think there will be a much higher conversion rate than that.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)?

Expect 60-75% based on the Mach E and Bronco.

remember we are all in 3000 lines. Let's say Ford gives one allocation to each dealer in the first round. I might be first in line at my small town dealer and you might be 10th in line at your large metro dealer.

Nope. The way the ordering system has worked, these special orders are independent of dealer allocations.

Priority is based on the time stamp (not reservation number). That will determine your place in line — off and only if you convert to am order promptly.

Build order is another matter for another discussion because earlier reservations get their trucks, they just may not arrive in order.

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[astricklin]

I think a lot of people are in for sticker shock when they go to configure a lightning. This year is an anomaly, but typically an F-150 goes for about $10k off MSRP. An XLT can be had for $35-45k depending on options. Maybe even a little bit less for a lower end one. The lightning XLT is going to start at $53. I have a feeling most people are going to want the extended range battery because they want their truck to do everything all the time and the will "need" the range. Your looking at $60k before getting any additional options. XLT+ with extended range and you're pushing $70k. That's getting close to double a gas powered truck. I can buy a gas XLT and a bolt/leaf/mini/base id.4 for the same money. Drive the electric car to/from work and drive the truck on the weekend.
Personally, if I do go through with purchasing a lightning it will be close to 3x more than any vehicle I have purchase so far (2x if I go with the pro). That is a lot of money.
Yes, the pro is a bargain but if Ford is right, then only about 10% will be pro and they will have a lot more lariat and Platinum orders than anything else. Not a lot of people can afford $70k+ for a truck.
Now, do I think Ford will sell as many of them as they can build for many years to come... absolutely. But 80k is maybe 20% (probably less) of the current F-150 volume and I suspect a lot of early purchases will be from electric car buyers wanting a truck and not from truck buyers wanting electric. It's going to take some time for all the friends and neighbors to get jealous of how much better the lightning is.

 

[F150ROD]

They've already released preliminary pricing for every model. If they vary much from that MSRP to begin with would be a suicide move for any company wishing to move product and Ford has NEVER been one of those kind of companies.

Henry built this company on a simple fact of building a car for the everyman. I've found over the years this model of business to still be true. Affordable, reliable.

A Ford Dealer and Ford Motor Co. are two separate entities. This would not be a new practice for Ford Dealers, try to go and buy an ICE F150 right now for MSRP or below.......good luck.

 

[thevofl]

I'm #11110368 which was around 120k as I was part of the night where the 120k mark was set. I think that it will be a year from now. Anyone want to buy my used 2021 Platinum that is still sitting in clean unscheduled status at the end of next year?

 

[ShirBlackspots]

2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
2025: 160,000 on the TE1 platform
2026: Maybe 240,000?
2027: Maybe 320,000?

Currently there are 120,000+ reservations. I reserved mine on Aug 1, with a #11118xxx. This is convenient for me, because I wasn't planning to buy until the end of 2023, into 2024 anyway.

 

[F150ROD]

I think a lot of people are in for sticker shock when they go to configure a lightning. This year is an anomaly, but typically an F-150 goes for about $10k off MSRP. An XLT can be had for $35-45k depending on options. Maybe even a little bit less for a lower end one. The lightning XLT is going to start at $53. I have a feeling most people are going to want the extended range battery because they want their truck to do everything all the time and the will "need" the range. Your looking at $60k before getting any additional options. XLT+ with extended range and you're pushing $70k. That's getting close to double a gas powered truck. I can buy a gas XLT and a bolt/leaf/mini/base id.4 for the same money. Drive the electric car to/from work and drive the truck on the weekend.
Personally, if I do go through with purchasing a lightning it will be close to 3x more than any vehicle I have purchase so far (2x if I go with the pro). That is a lot of money.
Yes, the pro is a bargain but if Ford is right, then only about 10% will be pro and they will have a lot more lariat and Platinum orders than anything else. Not a lot of people can afford $70k+ for a truck.
Now, do I think Ford will sell as many of them as they can build for many years to come... absolutely. But 80k is maybe 20% (probably less) of the current F-150 volume and I suspect a lot of early purchases will be from electric car buyers wanting a truck and not from truck buyers wanting electric. It's going to take some time for all the friends and neighbors to get jealous of how much better the lightning is.

You also have to account for any available rebates given to electric vehicles. For example, personally I am guaranteed at least $3500 and hopefully $7500 if its still available.

 

[astricklin]

Priority is based on the time stamp (not reservation number). That will determine your place in line — off and only if you convert to am order promptly.

I am guessing when they open the orders, we will get an email. Does anyone know from the mach-e and Bronco, do they open orders in waves? Do the dealers get access to ordering at the same time as pre-order holders? Does Ford say how long you have to convert before losing your reservation spot? If I put in a reservation today, but then have a dealer order day one the orders open, will I get the vehicle sooner on the dealer order?

 

[greenne]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

Maybe by then ford will sell a PRO version with an extended battery. (Sorry, someone had to say it). Thanks... I'll be here all week....

 

[FordTough98198]

Maybe by then ford will sell a PRO version with an extended battery. (Sorry, someone had to say it). Thanks... I'll be here all week....

You can get a pro with extended range if you’re a commercial customer. ??‍?

 

[Blainestang]

I am guessing when they open the orders, we will get an email. Does anyone know from the mach-e and Bronco, do they open orders in waves? Do the dealers get access to ordering at the same time as pre-order holders? Does Ford say how long you have to convert before losing your reservation spot? If I put in a reservation today, but then have a dealer order day one the orders open, will I get the vehicle sooner on the dealer order?

With the Bronco, once orders opened, there was a 2-month window before the window closed. As long as you order within that window, it is understood that your reservation timestamp set your general place in line, not your order date.

That said, if there's a problem with, say, the Pro wheels and they can't build any Pros, you can get jumped by people "behind" you in line, plus the normal variation due to batch building, regional deliveries, etc.

 

[Blainestang]

https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/thr...s-for-2022-f-150-lightning-sign-in-here.3702/
I think the earliest reservations were 10813xxx. I'm assuming the 4 lowest numbers are typos as the dates seem to be wrong. Also we don't know if fleet orders are included in this reservation number scheme.

Agreed. It seems like 10813xxx were the lowest normal numbers. Lots of as-early-as-possible reservations are in that range, plus a few thousand. The numbers below 10813xxx seem like weird outliers, and there haven't been many people mentioning numbers, so I kind of assumed they were to friends of dealers or something. Definitely outliers.

 

[bfjeld]

I bet everyone who wants an F150L in the first year will get one and it will also be on the x plan pricing with 0% over 72 months. Just trying to be positive as the rest of this thread has really dashed my hopes based on availability and if my dealer tries mark up I will also walk away.

 

[Sapphire]

With the Bronco, once orders opened, there was a 2-month window before the window closed. As long as you order within that window, it is understood that your reservation timestamp set your general place in line, not your order date.

That said, if there's a problem with, say, the Pro wheels and they can't build any Pros, you can get jumped by people "behind" you in line, plus the normal variation due to batch building, regional deliveries, etc.

This is encouraging. I fully expect my local dealer to tell me to get bent when I ask for a bit below or at MSRP. If we have an ordering window, that would at least give me some time to check other dealers. I’m willing to drive out to @Granger Ford too, depending on whether they are able to go below MSRP, based on the stellar feedback.

 

[Blainestang]

What I don't understand tho is that the 3 you mention, F150L, R1T, CT, are all very different vehicles.

F150L is, well, an F150 truck

R1T is smaller and geared towards the outdoor lifestyle folks. Cool truck, but not a F150. Closer to a Ranger in size.

CT, well, it's a CT and who knows when it will ever hit the streets. Just read of another push back on delivery time frame.

IMHO, you can compare them to one another. Other than being electric, and if that's your draw, there are cheaper options available.

To our point, will people drop out before delivery. Absolutely, in fact, I expect them to. Better for me as a late comer

I've heard of lots of people having reservations for 2 or 3 of these. Especially with the Cybertruck and Lightning, the reservations are so cheap and refundable, it's worth it just to hedge your bets.

The CT just got delayed, seemingly, but this announcement is a major effective delay for many Lighting reservation holders, too. Who knows what else could change for CT or Lightning before they actually arrive. Trim levels could get prioritized, the $7500 credit could be gone, the $12500 credit could be added (and $10k for Tesla).

Sure, there are plenty of people who are only considering the Lightning, and wouldn't be caught dead in a Cybertruck. And plenty of people who are the opposite, but also plenty who are considering both because, in the grand scheme of things, they're more similar than they are different.

 

[shutterbug]

I am guessing when they open the orders, we will get an email. Does anyone know from the mach-e and Bronco, do they open orders in waves? Do the dealers get access to ordering at the same time as pre-order holders? Does Ford say how long you have to convert before losing your reservation spot? If I put in a reservation today, but then have a dealer order day one the orders open, will I get the vehicle sooner on the dealer order?

Mustang Mach-E orders were opened up for everyone at once. Same for GT trim(s). But according to @hikinbengal, it will be done in waves:
https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/thr...th-1000-lbs-payload-confirmed.5106/post-84771

I think doing it in waves will avoid some of the craziness. I was able to get a First Edition after the order conversion closed, even though initial reservations for First Edition were closed after a few days of reveal. I suspect that was because of abandoned First Edition reservations.

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