Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[sotek2345]

I'm surprised they volume is so low. I guess it's good to aim low to start. I know the battery production takes a long runway (think 12 months+) to get orders in. So if you haven't reserved, expect a wait.

Shouldn't all of us (save those who reserved in the first 5 minutes or so) expect a wait?

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[shutterbug]

Shouldn't all of us (save those who reserved in the first 5 minutes or so) expect a wait?

I think even if you reserved in the first 5 minutes, there will be a serious wait. And that's if no new issues crop up.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

New platform will be 2026 model year.

ALL the articles say 2025 is the new platform.

 

[sotek2345]

I think even if you reserved in the first 5 minutes, there will be a serious wait. And that's if no new issues crop up.

Well there is late 2022/early 2023 with production delays waiting, and then "just go buy another car now, you will have it paid off before your ticket comes up" waiting.

 

[Pioneer74]

ALL the articles say 2025 is the new platform.

No, they don't.

After the second-generation Lightning launches in late 2025, the annual target is about 160,000, Reuters wrote.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...ord-f-150-lightning-ford-electric/8254023002/

You really think Ford is going to launch the 2025 model year late in 2025? No. It will be a 2026.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

If that's what you want to believe how you read it, then I guess that's how it is.

 

[Kiggulak]

So let's tease on the thought of "Reservation" versus an "Order". An Order implies that a "Reservation" has been converted through a Ford dealership's ordering system, correct? Meaning that like ordering a combustion-engined F-150, there probably is some sort of additional monies needed to be put down with the Ford dealer to complete the order. So there was a $100 "Reservation" fee that was refundable. Now a customer will be required to put down how much to make the order? Another $500USD? Another $1,000USD? Now the conversation becomes a lot more real to the people who put in a $100 "Reservation". I think dealers could command at least $1,000 to convert a "Reservation" to an "Order" for the Lightning - perhaps even $2,000 to $2,500. Sure, you will get those funds applied to the purchase price, but there are those people out there that $100 is not too high of a hurdle to put in a "Reservation", but $2,500 (plus the initial $100) to convert to an order may be too much and they decline to convert to an order.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)? Let's say that the 15,000 initial production units gets moved up to 20,000 or maybe 25,000 units. A 25% conversion rate of 200,000 units is 50,000 units for the first year - which is double their initial year's production of 25,000. (Hang with me here, just talking out my pie-hole here). Ford will want to have some showroom stock for the dealers as well, so I suspect that the first 5,000 or so units will be stock units rather than retail order units.

It could be feasible that if your Lightning reservation was within 100,000 to 120,000 reservations - depending on the conversion rate to actual orders - that you MIGHT get to see a MY22 Lightning.

If you want a MY22 Lightning and you're very serious about ordering / receiving the vehicle, then I'm guessing you may want to be advocating for a high order down payment to "cut the wheat from the chaffe" as it were.

Just my $0.02 . . . . If someone has already hypothesized this scenario on another thread - my apologies in advance.

My dealer has called me and confirmed no additional monies to convert from reservation to order as well as no penalty for cancelling my order after conversion. They have enough demand for the lightning to be able to find a new owner for my order should I bail at the last minute.

I'm still waiting to see what congress does with the EV tax rebate. I'm looking to secure the rebate in 2022-2023 and I don't want to lock up more of my money up front. All of the features on the Lightning make it the obvious choice at the price point but take away the current $7500 rebate and there are other vehicles that can fill most of my needs, especially as Tesla opens their superchargers to other car manufacturers.

 

[vandy1981]

And that reservation was made just minutes after the reveal event ended. I have another reservation made about the time the reservations went live as the event was about to start. I plan on using that for my personal truck in Lariat+ or Platinum trim.

@Lime Green would you mind sharing your reservation numbers (with the last three digits x'd out)? It would be interesting to see how the numbers progressed over that short period of time.

 

[Granger Ford]

Shouldn't all of us (save those who reserved in the first 5 minutes or so) expect a wait?

If the Bronco is any indication, yes.

The good news with the lightning is that it isn't all new. The basic truck architecture is similar, so there aren't the same hurdles to jump through like the Bronco being an all-new platform.

 

[Whiskey]

Are you saying 108*2*0860 was a day one reservation or is the 2 supposed to be a zero? I received 10803111 by reserving in the minutes before announcement as the link appeared early. Not a “friend of a dealer” or anything ?

Sam, is your number not the lowest of all numbers that have been reported? I can’t find any lower. Most appear to start 10813xxx

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

For the thousandth time, the res numbers are not sequential. Ask about the timestamp to get meaningful information.

 

[Blainestang]

For the thousandth time, the res numbers are not sequential. Ask about the timestamp to get meaningful information.

Timestamp is what is ultimately important, BUT res numbers are broadly sequential and *generally* start around 10813xxx, so it's interesting to see one that's an outlier like that.

They also can be one variable informing approximate number of people between one reservation and another, because timestamp doesn't inherently tell you anything about how many people are between one timestamp or another.

 

[Aamyotte]

We'll see. I'm going to try to double-dip with a Mach-E. The wife and I have 2 leases and both end in the middle of 2023.

I am in the exact same scenario with my wife's and my leases.

 

[sotek2345]

I am in the exact same scenario with my wife's and my leases.

Also trying to double dip, but no leases involved. Told the wife we couldn't keep her Mini past it's warranty (I don't want to do repairs on a BMW!), so we put in an order for a Mach-e GT for her. As of now we are expecting to get hers in early 2022. I am just hoping it isn't time to trade that Mach-e in before I get the Lightning!

The new production numbers for the Lightning also have me rethinking our home charging plans. Had been planning to just set up the 80A Lightning charger and use that for both, but if the Lightning is several years away......

 

[ChasingCoral]

Timestamp is what is ultimately important, BUT res numbers are broadly sequential and *generally* start around 10813xxx, so it's interesting to see one that's an outlier like that.

They also can be one variable informing approximate number of people between one reservation and another, because timestamp doesn't inherently tell you anything about how many people are between one timestamp or another.

They aren’t even close to sequential. Multiple servers were dispensing numbers in separated sets of 1000s simultaneously.
For example 10813750 is a later reservation than 10815005.

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