Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[astricklin]

Maxx
My problem with my perception of this process is two-fold:
First there’s the money, but second there appears to be no binding agreement that results in a vehicle in a specified period of time. From what I’m hearing from those that replied is that, “delivery is a moving target that may get canceled and revised upwards in price.”

That's just legal fine print so they can cover their ass. I don't think the bronco or the Mach-e strayed from announced pricing. However they could adjust trim levels, add or remove equipment and have slight differences in final pricing for the 2022 trucks. The base model will still be $39,995 and I feel like the other trims should be within $1000 of their announced pricing (unless they lower any prices). Ford wouldn't have published these prices if they weren't confident they could meet them.
Now how things play out with orders that don't get filled until the second or third model year, I'm going to guess they'll do like the Bronco and anyone who has a pre-order before orders open and places an order in the in stated initial order period will lock in pricing as long as they don't modify their order at a later date.

As has been for decades, and because of how the dealership system works, Ford corporate will always have a disclaimer that final pricing is set by the dealer on any vehicle pricing advertised.

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[shutterbug]

I don't think the bronco or the Mach-e strayed from announced pricing.

Mustang Mach-E actually got its price lowered by $3K ($1K on First Edition).

 

[Lime Green]

@Lime Green would you mind sharing your reservation numbers (with the last three digits x'd out)? It would be interesting to see how the numbers progressed over that short period of time.

As others have stated, reservation numbers are not sequential. The one I made second is actually a lower number. They are at two different dealerships. The one I made first is 10814xxx and the one I made second is 10813xxx. There is some sequential timing to the numbers in some ways, as I don’t have a 1082Xxxx number I guess.

All that matters in the end is reservation time stamp, configuration/ trim level and delivery logistics. Reservation number means diddly poop.

 

[TN F-150]

I want to know the real reason why Ford is slowing their roll here. Isn’t it correct that that the MachE had first year production limited to about 50k units due to anticipated battery availability? And that was for a new unproven model.

Ford has already made agreements with two battery manufacturers and is in the process of building their very own battery manufacturing facility.

The F150 is the best selling vehicle in America. They had to expect that reservations/orders would be large numbers. They’re marketing to both retail and fleet buyers. And yet, first year production is scheduled at 1/3 of what the MachE roll out was. I don’t get it.

Second generation Lightnings look to be scheduled hot on the heels of the initial production run. Is Ford not convinced of the efficacy of the roll out model?

I know marketing and production are always butting heads. But Ford is slamming on the brakes here and it would be nice to know why.

 

[Maxx]

Second generation Lightnings look to be scheduled hot on the heels of the initial production run. Is Ford not convinced of the efficacy of the roll out model?

I know marketing and production are always butting heads. But Ford is slamming on the brakes here and it would be nice to know why.

This is just a guess:

It is possible that larger supply of chips and batteries won’t kick in until 2023-2024

It is possible BMS is not fully tested and 15K recall is better than 50K recall, Lightening is more likely to be stressed out by additional load more than Mach-E did due to towing and load.

It is possible that Ford is leaving some room for complications, expecting to start production in mid 2022. at the rate of 50K annually starting slow and ramping up which would mean around 15K for 22

I think first generation Lightening is mostly frankensteined to get it out the door quickly using as much of the ICE F150 as possible since they are created concurrently. If Ford is serious about BEVs they are designing a real BEV truck to replace ICE at some point. Frankly battery tech is not quite there yet. I am not sure if that is 2nd or 3rd gen but it takes a lot more time to produce at levels and prices ICE is being produced.

 

[Bippers]

I think first generation Lightening is mostly frankensteined to get it out the door quickly using as much of the ICE F150 as possible since they are created concurrently. If Ford is serious about BEVs they are designing a real BEV truck to replace ICE at some point. Frankly battery tech is not quite there yet. I am not sure if that is 2nd or 3rd gen but it takes a lot more time to produce at levels and prices ICE is being produced.

Even if it is frankensteined with ICE parts that should mean the first generation will have good parts support for long-life use for anything not related to the EV drivetrain. If the new revision is created from the ground up as an EV it may not be as easy to source parts in the long term. This is one reason I really like the current version since I know I can wrench and modify parts to upgrade say the pro trim over a 10+ year lifetime.

 

[TN F-150]

I also keep my vehicles for a long time, 20+ years. Just see my vehicle list to the left.
But now I’m wondering if the current battery pack is a short term solution that may be replace with solid state technology in the second edition. And maybe that’s why Ford is dragging their feet.

 

[Bippers]

As someone who is looking into EV conversions of classic cars as well I figure a battery swap of the first gen seems fairly simple since it is less an integral structural component than say like in a Tesla Model 3. The battery sits within the frame rails and someone with a lift could easily drop, design, and replace the battery with something custom in the future. This is of course barring some ECU bypasses which I'm sure either third party or open source will solve as time goes on.

I would rather have one that appears to be upgradeable than one that is a mystery. The devil I know vs the devil I don't etc.

 

[Maxx]

Even if it is frankensteined with ICE parts that should mean the first generation will have good parts support for long-life use for anything not related to the EV drivetrain. If the new revision is created from the ground up as an EV it may not be as easy to source parts in the long term. This is one reason I really like the current version since I know I can wrench and modify parts to upgrade say the pro trim over a 10+ year lifetime.

I totally agree. That is one of the things lightening has over Cybertruck (I like spare tire too). I am not worried as much about battery. Even if Ford stop supporting it, there will be aftermarket solutions in 10 years. What I am worried about is the software that could turn the truck to a useless piece of brick. If there are not enough 1st gen lightenings out there and ford stop supporting it. When something goes wrong, there may not be third party support for something that may be proprietary. My Note II smartphone with cracked glass hardware was working perfectly fine until this year but Goggle and many apps stopped supporting it after a few years so I could not open many of my documents with it. Imagine charging networks have moved on to a new protocol and your lightening can no longer talk to them. You get my drift. It is much harder to look at your $90K lightening as a disposable tool as you look at your mobile phone. If car manufacturers can get away with what apple has gotten away with, it just may end up that way. So I totally get where you are coming from. Calling my Lightening Frank (short for Frankenstein) will be a term of endearment.

I also keep my vehicles for a long time, 20+ years. Just see my vehicle list to the left.
But now I’m wondering if the current battery pack is a short term solution that may be replace with solid state technology in the second edition. And maybe that’s why Ford is dragging their feet.

My truck is 18 years old and it is doing mainly what new trucks do with similar payload and capabilities (aside from fancy buttons). Think of BEVs as smartphone or or tablets. What you buy today is vastly superior to what was on the market two years ago and that will be the case two years from now. It is a matter of when they are good enough for your use.

 

[Pioneer74]

I want to know the real reason why Ford is slowing their roll here.

There probably are multiple reasons. The factory isn't complete yet. We still don't have all the stamping dies in the country yet for the unique panels. We don't have complete launch teams, for production or trades, for the new REV plant.

But most of all, Ford was completely caught off guard for the level of interest and demand for this vehicle. For every unique component to the Lightning, management has to go back and get commitments for more components, and that takes time to ramp up.

 

[Blainestang]

But most of all, Ford was completely caught off guard for the level of interest and demand for this vehicle.

They couldn't have thought 15,000 would be enough for 2022, right? Or 40,000/yr by 2024? Anyone who thought either of those numbers were in line with demand should... not be involved in estimating demand anymore.

 

[sotek2345]

They couldn't have thought 15,000 would be enough for 2022, right? Or 40,000/yr by 2024? Anyone who thought either of those numbers were in line with demand should... not be involved in estimating demand anymore.

Worse than that - the 15k is after 2 increases (50% and then doubling). So someone thought that 5k in 2022 and ~27k in 2024 was enough!

 

[BottledLightning]

And I read somewhere here that upon ordering there’s a deposit due ; perhaps $2,000 to $2,500?

I believe the normal procedure is they would convert you to an order (likely this fall), but then if they can't fill it you update the order to fi the next model year pricing and packages (repeat until they can fill your order)

Ford leaves any additional deposit requirements entirely up to the dealership you order through. For example: we typically do $1,000 on Factory Orders, but because of the amazingly long wait on Bronco we simply used the $100 reservation. Currently the plan is to do the same on lightning but it's not finalized.

Correct, unless they offer price protection with a cut off date. For Bronco the terminology was something along the lines of "You will be price protected as long as you order a similarly equipped Bronco." Pretty gray as Ford gets to decide what qualifies as "similarly" but better than no price protection. Fingers crossed Lightning will get something like that too.

 

[Blainestang]

Worse than that - the 15k is after 2 increases (50% and then doubling). So someone thought that 5k in 2022 and ~27k in 2024 was enough!

Yeah, good point.

Saying they "doubled" the plan grabs the headline and gives the impression that "Wow, Lightning demand is so high, and Ford is really taking this seriously", but my impression is actually: "Wow, Ford's original estimates were hilariously bad."

 

[TN F-150]

Ford looked at the demand generated by “other” BEV manufacturers, married that to the best selling vehicle in America and couldn’t predict the result?

I’m sorry, I don’t buy it.

Trouble with material deliveries or workforce or logistics I get that. But infrastructure should have been in place before the roll out.

This was a “Ready, Fire, Aim” debut.

15k first year production is pathetic.
It’s obvious they weren’t prepared, but it wasn’t because of market research. They jumped the gun.

I can’t believe they could be that naive and keep looking for other reasons why they would bow up right in the middle of a roll out. There has to be another motive.

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