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Am I crazy or brilliant

sotek2345

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I have been toying with an idea the last week or so, assuming I am looking at a 2023 or 2024 Lightning. I am currently in a situation where I will soon (early 2022) have some significantly increased cash flow until ~Fall 2023 (Oldest going to college). My currently plan is to triple the payment on my current truck (2016 XLT) to pay it down/off before trading for my Lightning. That is good, but I think I will be losing ~$10k to $15k in trade value on the truck as the market normalizes in that same interval (~$28k to 30k value now down to ~$15k to $20k)

Crazy/Brilliant idea - trade the 2016 XLT for a (used) Raptor! (after I find out if I am getting a 2022 Lightning or not)

Pros:
- Raptor should holds its value much better than an XLT as the market corrects (potentially saving me thousands off my Lightning)
- It's a Raptor!
- I should be able to get a lower interest rate than I have now, so amount paid on the loan principle will be about the same between the trucks
- In NY you only pay sales tax on the difference between the trade and new vehicle, so I will have to pay some now, but get it back later

Cons:
- Higher insurance for the Raptor
- Lower fuel economy for the Raptor
- My oldest is learning to drive and will most likely be using my truck to go back and forth to work this summer until she get's her own car. Is a new(ish) driver and a raptor a good pairing? At least she will be safe!
- Current truck is in good repair and all maintenance is up to date, only 61k miles. (If the Raptor still has a warranty, that offsets this)
- I like my current truck

It seems like this would be great way to drive a Raptor for 12 to 18 months (or so), while also saving some money in the long run (due to the Raptor keeping it's value), but am I being crazy?

Also Gen 1 or Gen 2?
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JPNewIn22

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I had a similar situation but wasn’t considering the Lightening but a 2022 F150. I was driving a 2016 XLT 302a package with 118,000 miles on it. Two years ago the dealer wanted to give me $17,000 for it with 85,000 miles. Now they wanted to give me $23,000. I ran the numbers on the trade in vs the extra sales tax I would pay and came up with a number that would work if I did a private sale. I ended up selling the 2016 last month for $30,000 and have most of that to put towards my new vehicle. So you can sort of cash in now on your trade in my opinion. What you get as a replacement is another thing to consider. Good luck, feel free to ask me any questions about my process.
 

Pilot2022

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I had a similar situation but wasn’t considering the Lightening but a 2022 F150. I was driving a 2016 XLT 302a package with 118,000 miles on it. Two years ago the dealer wanted to give me $17,000 for it with 85,000 miles. Now they wanted to give me $23,000. I ran the numbers on the trade in vs the extra sales tax I would pay and came up with a number that would work if I did a private sale. I ended up selling the 2016 last month for $30,000 and have most of that to put towards my new vehicle. So you can sort of cash in now on your trade in my opinion. What you get as a replacement is another thing to consider. Good luck, feel free to ask me any questions about my process.
This tells me that supply chain constraints are here to stay for another year or two or a market correction is coming. Imagine whoever bought your truck for $30k has to trade in couple of years for $10k or less (using your 17k as a data point for a Normal market).
Really not looking forward to see what happens when music stops…
 

Skidrowe

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Your current truck is valued higher in todays market. The Raptor is valued higher in todays market as well. So the extra value you get for your current truck is going to be offset by the exact same markup you'll find on the used raptor. While the raptor will retain value better than your current truck, a market correction will still affect its value in the future. So your only real gain from trading in now for a raptor is that it depreciates slower than your current truck.
 

Garbone

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I would price out selling the current sled now on the high and than pound Autotrader for a Maverick Hybrid at MSRP. Save myself a few years of tuition costs and lower fueling to boot. Take the savings and invest in a 80/20 moderate/high risk portfolio.
 

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sotek2345

sotek2345

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I would price out selling the current sled now on the high and than pound Autotrader for a Maverick Hybrid at MSRP. Save myself a few years of tuition costs and lower fueling to boot. Take the savings and invest in a 80/20 moderate/high risk portfolio.
Maverick is a great truck, but doesn't meet my needs. I coach a robotics teams and carting around their equipment takes every bit of my 5.5 foot bed (and some of the cab).
 

Nick Gerteis

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I would price out selling the current sled now on the high and than pound Autotrader for a Maverick Hybrid at MSRP. Save myself a few years of tuition costs and lower fueling to boot. Take the savings and invest in a 80/20 moderate/high risk portfolio.
Maverick is great, but goes for 40k used—double MSRP !!! At least they’re low miles…..
 

Snakebitten

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I have a somewhat similar situation in respect to protecting the value of my current vehicle with the intention of trading it in for another vehicle that I have on order.

So I stopped in out of curiosity and asked the salesman that I have been doing business with forever : "what vehicle do you have in inventory, new or used, that if I purchased it today it would have the least amount of depreciation between now and when my new truck ever arrives?"

He laughed, because he knows me and my willingness to "make a deal" on impulse.

He answered "First, ANY F250. But good luck finding one." And then he walked over to the big glass store front and pointed at a truck parked outside and said "Second, is that truck right there"

He was pointing at my 2021 Platinum Powerboost. It's 7 months old and has about 4500 miles on it. I asked "Really? So I need to just relax about this truck losing value?"

He said he knows buyers that would give me MSRP for it right now. Dealerships are having a very difficult time fetching Top Trim loaded trucks and many have customers on speed dial that want them before they arrive.

I realize it's not apples/apples, but I DO believe there is legitimate savvy in your theory.

By the way, he said any SuperDuty, Platinum, Limited, KingRanch, Raptor are NOT depreciated. At least not in this climate
 
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sotek2345

sotek2345

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Not to pry too much, but FIRST?
Yup, FIRST Tech Challenge. It is a community team in an area where the Schools can't afford to support it. We don't have a permanent location, so I have to cart everything around in my truck (robot, tools, field, etc.). Bed basically stays full of stuff 6 months a year. One of the local towns lets us use their town hall basement for meetings as long as we keep it looking like we weren't there.
 

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JimL

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So, we all would like a Raptor, I reckon. But I'd consider these two non-towing considerations:
1. Parking. I work in downtown Pittsburgh ("dahntahn") and it's enough to park my F-150 XLT s-crew in a garage. With the extra width and height of a Raptor, I'd be very limited as to where I could park. Probably not a concern for most folks.
2. I'd look for a certified used Raptor. Buying from a private seller, or even regular used from a dealer, you just don't know what life that Raptor has lived. There are far too many knuckleheaded bubbas out there abusing their Raptors.
 
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sotek2345

sotek2345

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So, we all would like a Raptor, I reckon. But I'd consider these two non-towing considerations:
1. Parking. I work in downtown Pittsburgh ("dahntahn") and it's enough to park my F-150 XLT s-crew in a garage. With the extra width and height of a Raptor, I'd be very limited as to where I could park. Probably not a concern for most folks.
2. I'd look for a certified used Raptor. Buying from a private seller, or even regular used from a dealer, you just don't know what life that Raptor has lived. There are far too many knuckleheaded bubbas out there abusing their Raptors.
Agreed on both points. I don't have a garage, but plenty on room in my driveway.

Yes, if I go for this and get a Gen 2, it would be CPO. If I go Gen 1 that isn't an option, but it would also be much cheaper.
 

HtownHog

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I have a somewhat similar situation in respect to protecting the value of my current vehicle with the intention of trading it in for another vehicle that I have on order.

So I stopped in out of curiosity and asked the salesman that I have been doing business with forever : "what vehicle do you have in inventory, new or used, that if I purchased it today it would have the least amount of depreciation between now and when my new truck ever arrives?"

He laughed, because he knows me and my willingness to "make a deal" on impulse.

He answered "First, ANY F250. But good luck finding one." And then he walked over to the big glass store front and pointed at a truck parked outside and said "Second, is that truck right there"

He was pointing at my 2021 Platinum Powerboost. It's 7 months old and has about 4500 miles on it. I asked "Really? So I need to just relax about this truck losing value?"

He said he knows buyers that would give me MSRP for it right now. Dealerships are having a very difficult time fetching Top Trim loaded trucks and many have customers on speed dial that want them before they arrive.

I realize it's not apples/apples, but I DO believe there is legitimate savvy in your theory.

By the way, he said any SuperDuty, Platinum, Limited, KingRanch, Raptor are NOT depreciated. At least not in this climate
This was my answer. When the lightning hits showroom floors and if gas prices remain higher then folks will be looking for the next best thing. ADM of a lightning sitting on the lot or msrp/slight depreciation of a powerboost.

a raptor could tank in value if gas goes up any more, think early 2000’s SUV and truck discounts. 6 months I don’t think is a big change but 1.5-2 years a lot can happen. Two years ago we used to kiss strangers on the mouth while counting down from 10 at midnight. Wild times.
 
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sotek2345

sotek2345

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This was my answer. When the lightning hits showroom floors and if gas prices remain higher then folks will be looking for the next best thing. ADM of a lightning sitting on the lot or msrp/slight depreciation of a powerboost.

a raptor could tank in value if gas goes up any more, think early 2000’s SUV and truck discounts. 6 months I don’t think is a big change but 1.5-2 years a lot can happen. Two years ago we used to kiss strangers on the mouth while counting down from 10 at midnight. Wild times.
I agree that rising fuel prices will drive down the resale of ICE vehicles, but I suspect things like the Raptor and Sports cars will be more immune from that than most. They (tend to be) more toys for those than can afford them than tools for those who need them. If you can afford a Raptor, Shelby, Hellcat etc. An extra dollar or 2 a gallon probably isn't going to push you away.
 

GarageMahal

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Yup, FIRST Tech Challenge. It is a community team in an area where the Schools can't afford to support it. We don't have a permanent location, so I have to cart everything around in my truck (robot, tools, field, etc.). Bed basically stays full of stuff 6 months a year. One of the local towns lets us use their town hall basement for meetings as long as we keep it looking like we weren't there.
Have you considered looking for a trailer? An enclosed trailer provides both transportation and storage and expands your vehicle choice greatly.
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