Who is installing solar as part of their Lightning purchase?

[DadBald]

Did you do any sensitivity analysis on energy costs over time?

Not a formal sensitivity analysis, but I played around with it and it definitely affects payback. I was mostly surprised that at 19 cents/kWh payback was still 17 years with an installer. I used a 3% escalation rate, which I think is conservative. Our rates have gone up 30% in the last 4 years. The thing is, it's so volatile and based on world events, it's highly unpredictable. Our neighbors in Indiana have low rates that just got slashed some more this year. I'm sure overall it will be going up, not sure how much or how fast.

Payback was the biggest limitation to my decision, but there were other motivators too, like being energy independent, clean energy, etc. Also, the thought of eventually driving for almost free has gotta be appealing So even if we don't see rates increase at 3% I'll still be happy with the numbers. But I'm fairly certain that's conservative.

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[IdeaOfTheDayCom]

What I REALLY want is a SOLAR TONNEAU COVER!

Even if it only picked up a 10 or so miles each day, that would cover a lot of local driving.

 

[LightningShow]

Not a formal sensitivity analysis, but I played around with it and it definitely affects payback. I was mostly surprised that at 19 cents/kWh payback was still 17 years with an installer. I used a 3% escalation rate, which I think is conservative. Our rates have gone up 30% in the last 4 years. The thing is, it's so volatile and based on world events, it's highly unpredictable. Our neighbors in Indiana have low rates that just got slashed some more this year. I'm sure overall it will be going up, not sure how much or how fast.

Payback was the biggest limitation to my decision, but there were other motivators too, like being energy independent, clean energy, etc. Also, the thought of eventually driving for almost free has gotta be appealing So even if we don't see rates increase at 3% I'll still be happy with the numbers. But I'm fairly certain that's conservative.

I used 3%/yr as a baseline, as well, but the potential upside on energy prices scares me a bit. I got about 15 years on my analysis but it could easily swing closer to 10, or up to 20, depending on a number of factors (like actual quotes! ?). I have one place quoting me today so I'll have a better idea how close my assumptions are.

EDIT: I didn't factor in potential gain in property value because that makes it pay off on day 1.

 

[DadBald]

I used 3%/yr as a baseline, as well, but the potential upside on energy prices scares me a bit. I got about 15 years on my analysis but it could easily swing closer to 10, or up to 20, depending on a number of factors (like actual quotes! ?). I have one place quoting me today so I'll have a better idea how close my assumptions are.

EDIT: I didn't factor in potential gain in property value because that makes it pay off on day 1.

Haha, same here. I'm skeptical of this though, because it limits your buyers somewhat. Some will pay more for it and some won't want it at all. Either way we plan to be here for a long time so it was kind of irrelevant for us. And yes I did see the swing in payback you are seeing too.

If you're handy, I'd suggest checking out Solar Wholesale as a potential alternative. I found 3 local installers who quoted me, and the DIY kit + stamped drawings from SW saved me about $10,000 on top of the cheapest quote. It was the only way I could make it work here. And I have a suspicion that most residential solar buyers are getting hosed by installer promises... Sounds like you've got your mind wrapped around it pretty well though. Good luck.

 

[LightningShow]

Haha, same here. I'm skeptical of this though, because it limits your buyers somewhat. Some will pay more for it and some won't want it at all. Either way we plan to be here for a long time so it was kind of irrelevant for us. And yes I did see the swing in payback you are seeing too.

If you're handy, I'd suggest checking out Solar Wholesale as a potential alternative. I found 3 local installers who quoted me, and the DIY kit + stamped drawings from SW saved me about $10,000 on top of the cheapest quote. It was the only way I could make it work here. And I have a suspicion that most residential solar buyers are getting hosed by installer promises... Sounds like you've got your mind wrapped around it pretty well though. Good luck.

Thanks for the tip. I'll have to see how the quotes come in. I wouldn't be afraid to install it myself if it wasn't a 30 ft drop to pavement off that side of my roof. No way in hell I'm going up there!

 

[Ruination]

I kind of wish I had the gumption to install it myself. But I paid someone to do it and for some reason I didn't really shop around. Weird in hindsight.

I would recommend not covering your entire electric bill. Extra production does not really pay itself off. Specially if SRECs keep going up.

Was contemplating adding 6 more panels for the Lightning myself. Still considering it.

 

[greenne]

As someone who recently installed solar(2019) and then expanded the system(2021) I'll offer a few thoughts.

- Prices vary wildly for solar installation. We found a good local installer who cost half as much as the national "big chain" solar companies. A large part of the cost is labor(installation).

- Don't buy from door to door solar companies and research extensively. Solar is a long term investment..make sure you're comfortable with the installer/seller as you may need them for service and or expansion down the road. Also be aware of sales tricks including inflated production numbers, offering cheap quality panels, overestimation of tax credits/incentives, etc. Focus on quality of equipment, warranty and reputation vs strictly looking at price. A trick is to look at the price per watt VS. total overall price of system.

- Go into it knowing that solar is not for everyone in every situation. Maybe your house is shaded, maybe you plan to move in a few years. Maybe your utility is not friendly towards solar and/or your state offers little to none tax credits. Although I can't fault anyone for doing the "right thing" out of concern for the environment--the fact is it may not be economically prudent.

- Do keep an open mind however. Solar is a long term investment with huge payoff down the road. Good quality solar panels will last 25yrs or more and have production warranties 20+ yrs. In reality, your particular living situation may be more of a limitation than any panel lifespan issue.

- All this said if you keep a level head and have realistic expectations-- solar can work even in cloudy areas. It really depends upon how friendly your state/utility is towards solar and the incentives offered. I live in upstate NY and the incentives put my payback time at ~8yrs. That is great given the cloudiness of the region and the snow cover in winter. It is true that I have to invest in a larger system that most to get the benefit--as the same size system here produces much less power than say Arizona-- but you have space and incentives in can potentially work virtually anywhere.

Just my thoughts..3ys into solar and very satisfied...looking to expand again if we replace our vehicles with EVs.

 

[TF1000]

For those who are calculating payback on solar don't forget the 26% federal tax incentive.

 

[greenne]

For those who are calculating payback on solar don't forget the 26% federal tax incentive.

Anyone who is on the fence-- 26% Fed tax credit(non refundable but CAN be rolled over to next tax year). This decreases to 22% next year(2023) and is gone for residential installations in 2024. Still unsure if you will be able to roll any excess credits past 2023 tax return. There is a decent chance the solar credit will be extended wither in some slimmed down BBB legislation or stand alone climate provision.

Some states/ local governments offer significant incentives and net metering laws vary. Some power grids allow you to sell any excess back to the grid for KwH credit(which essentially means retail rate compensation) OR for financial compensation(usually less $$ at wholesale rate).

 

[LightningShow]

First quote out of the box $55k for 15.2kW.

 

[Ruination]

Just my thoughts..3ys into solar and very satisfied...looking to expand again if we replace our vehicles with EVs.

How did the expansion go? Just a completely new system with another inverter?

First quote out of the box $55k for 15.2kW.

Yikes.

 

[greenne]

First quote out of the box $55k for 15.2kW.

Yikes.

My first system in 2019 was ~$16k for a 5.85 Kwh system, add on was ~$9k for 3.3KwH addition.

 

[LightningShow]

Yikes.

My first system in 2019 was ~$16k for a 5.85 Kwh system, add on was ~$9k for 3.3KwH addition.

That doesn't include any incentives or haggling. These guys are known to be a bit higher in price, as well.

I found this for $29k, which is virtually identical to the system they quoted: https://sunwatts.com/15-2kw-solar-kit-solaria-400-black-solaredge-hd-optimizers/

 

[greenne]

How did the expansion go? Just a completely new system with another inverter?

The expansion went fine. Initially were going to just add panels to my existing inverter. However, It became clear it was beneficial to add a second inverter so we could mount a few panels on the backside of my house(NW facing) so there was generation in the afternoon.

Something I forgot to add earlier is to choose an installer who is experienced in custom designing a layout to get the maximum output based on the orientation of the home, surrounding vegetation, eaves/dormers/upper levels which can shade the panels.

My house is ESE-WNW orientation. This means that neither my "front" or "back" produces a maximum power output, but I can put panels on both sides of the home and get decent generation.

On the front side(facing ESE) I had 18panels originally..we added 2 additional panals(to fill the roof) hooked to original array.

Add on array has 8 panels facing WNW hooked to a much smaller inverter. I could add more panels to the back--but it may not be worth it as part of that roof is shaded by trees along the side of the property during the late afternoon when the WNW panels would have the most exposure to the sun.

 

[RLXXI]

Already have an array on the roof, it's limited to 6kW by regulations for grid tied systems on residential applications in my area or else I'd have my entire roof covered.

Perhaps I'll add more panels and a power wall or 2 later on when the cost comes down.

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