Ford really is all-in on the $30K BEV

[Jseis]

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/ford-refuses-to-shy-away-from-evs-despite-19-5-billion-cost

“The really high-end EVs, the $50k, $60k, $70k EVs just weren’t selling,” CEO Jim Farley said in an interview Dec. 15.”

With housing costs up, wage stagnation, uncertainty in the economy… it’s a calculated gamble.

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[WXman]

And yet they've (and other companies too) been selling $70k and $90k trucks with gas and diesel engines as fast as they can get them to dealerships.

I wish them the best, but these next few years are a stressful time for all automakers as they try to take advantage of the loose reins of the Fed now to make money while simultaneously trying to protect themselves into the future.

 

[MountainAlive]

Sadly we’ve heard this “$30k” EV story before. I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[Dan C]

Never happen, they can barely build a 30k anything now. It will be worse in 2 years. Btw my 2010 f250 diesel was 50k and they sold alot of them then. Money isn't the problem. Consumer education is. They need to convince people that never drive more than 200 miles that they don't need to be able to drive 300.

 

[COrocket]

It’s interesting that the gas F-series currently has a 5:1 sales ratio over the maverick, so you wonder if the 30k EV will outperform the Lightning in sales.

Nobody really know if the pricing of the Lightning was the primary constraint to sales given its similar pricing to its gas 150 equivalent, or did we simply reach market saturation very quickly in the consumer sub-segment where EV interest and truck interest overlap.

It’ll also be interesting to see how stripped down the 30k base truck is to hit that target number. Outside of some commercial users, the higher end Maverick trims seem much more popular in my area which can push 40k easily

 

[22legit2quit]

Farley is squarely in the well to do multimillionaire and even billionaire club, you think he’s in touch or cares about any of us or the rest of fords customers? Cmon.

People care about range anxiety, when their ice or hybrid can go 4-500 miles on a tank and their bladder and/or bowels can go like 250. They also act like everytime they attach a trailer that they’re going to be driving the country end to end with their lawn mower, so they’ve just got to have a similar priced non EV because you know “charging”.

Can’t save people from being their own worst enemies, but don’t believe in Farley doing anything but lining his pockets because he has a responsibility to shareholders and shareholders want to make money. Even if they don’t understand the simple volumetrics of selling ten of something at 10 bucks easily rather than struggling to sell one thing at 100 bucks.

 

[Lytning]

People care about range anxiety, when their ice or hybrid can go 4-500 miles on a tank and their bladder and/or bowels can go like 250.

I have concluded that many drivers demand a vehicle range-to-bladder range ratio of 2:1 (500/250).

 

[Tony Burgh]

If Canada lets the camel get his nose in the tent, it will be tough to prevent low priced EV’s from hitting the US. Especially if you consider time lag to occur.

 

[Wattsgas]

GM and Ford both learned during Covid that they could make more money and produce fewer vehicles by concentrating on option loaded vehicles. They stopped building cheap vehicles. They didn't offer to sell many low cost Lightnings. Volume production with low profit is not what the shareholders want. The China's manufacturers have been locked out of North American markets by trade protectionism. Which maybe a lifeline for US manufacturers, but, sooner or later they are going to have to compete.

 

[El Duderino]

Here is a good 15 minute interview with Ford's lead engineer on this vehicle, Alan Clarke. Good watch if you want to know more:

 

[WXman]

They need to convince people that never drive more than 200 miles that they don't need to be able to drive 300.

I'll use my own personal situation. Almost everything I need is within a 50 mile radius of my house. Work, stores, church, schools, hospitals, all of it. I've got 6,800 miles on my truck and every single charge has been at home, except the ONE time I charged at an EA station just to try it.

BUT... there are a handful of times per year when we'll decide out of the blue that we want to hook up the camper and go to our favorite campsites that are 150 to 250 miles away from home. And the thought of trying to locate level 3 chargers in remote areas every 75 miles is painful. And so, our favorite hobby hasn't been done a single time since I got this truck. We've tailored our lives around the truck, rather than the truck serving our lives.

And so, even though maybe 5% of my driving is long distances, that 5% is a VERY important 5% and it's the sole reason I drive a truck and not a car.

It's like four wheel drive. Most people almost never use it. Ever. But when that one situation pops up that you can get yourself unstuck and not have to call for help, it's totally worth it.

Point is, *frequency* of usage and *importance* of ability are not often looked at under the correct light.

It’s interesting that the gas F-series currently has a 5:1 sales ratio over the maverick, so you wonder if the 30k EV will outperform the Lightning in sales.

Nobody really know if the pricing of the Lightning was the primary constraint to sales given its similar pricing to its gas 150 equivalent, or did we simply reach market saturation very quickly in the consumer sub-segment where EV interest and truck interest overlap.

It’ll also be interesting to see how stripped down the 30k base truck is to hit that target number. Outside of some commercial users, the higher end Maverick trims seem much more popular in my area which can push 40k easily

Exactly. When this EV truck hits the lots at under $40k, it will be VERY telling. This will be excellent information for all automakers. If it flops, it will confirm that price is NOT the factor. Impracticality is. I'd say all the other OEs are eagerly waiting to see how Ford's experiment does in the marketplace.

Ford is great at giving free recon to other companies. For YEARS Jeep was scared to remove the solid front axle from the Wrangler, fearing that screwing with the hallowed formula would ruin sales. Ford then comes out with the Bronco on IFS and it has sold like hotcakes, nearly catching up to Wrangler sales last year. So that proves to Jeep that people don't really care about suspension. What they care about is looks, image, accessories, removable doors, convertible tops, etc. But they don't care about suspension and axles. So now watch and see....the next gen Wrangler in 2028 will probably use IFS.

Ford will put out an EV truck for $39,995 with nice options and if it flops, all the other OEs will shelve every EV project they've got going on. The market waits with anticipation....

 

[22legit2quit]

I have concluded that many drivers demand a vehicle range-to-bladder ratio of 2:1 (500/250).

Here is a good 15 minute interview with Ford's lead engineer on this vehicle, Alan Clarke. Good watch if you want to know more:

Not sure if I’m going to trust someone who’s worked there for ford that is wearing a shirt that hasn’t even been put in a dryer to be a spokesperson with any level of integrity.

Universal ev platform? Cmon man. We can’t even get universal charging without an adapter. They act like all this r and d money was just shot down the demon hole like they really changed much about the lightning from the ice (other than the obvious). The electric motor and battery technology has been the driving force in nearly every train/railcar for the last 100 years or so. Literally Union Pacific and a couple others had the ad up years ago saying it takes a gallon of fuel to move one ton of freight 400 miles or something like that.

The reality is that they spent it the wrong way on the wrong things and wrong people like their ceo who used the silly woke mismanaged previous administration to rob what will come out to be trillions out of the taxpayer and global economy pushing something that a high school science class could make at half the cost with a quarter of the budget.

This is something I’ve noticed being in multiple ev/hybrid communities. I have a gen 1 insight, and to its credit it is far beyond any hybrid or ev because it was made knowing that it would likely be unpopular but it allowed Honda and Toyota because the Prius came out around the same time to better educate their customers on what works and what does not before pulling the plug on an obviously obsolete way of doing things. I’m a huge fan of the lightning in its current form. Should it be an erev? Doubtful, but people should be able to have the option to add it at a fair cost and not turn it into a mortgage payment. Should it be something that can be purchased by the average consumer without putting them into a vehicle poor scenario? Yes, if they want to stay in business.

Conclusively this is a dollars and sense (not cents because the penny is going away) problem. It doesn’t make sense to not make dollars on these and effectively as the lesser and lesser needs for service and less of a desire to replace something at x number of miles really goes away in an ev that has very few serviceable parts. What they’ll move to is something keeps the supply and demand status quo in their favor which even at the current price the lightning won’t do.

 

[El Duderino]

Did you watch the interview?

He has worked at Ford for 4 years, but before that he was at Tesla for 12 years.

I know this topic evokes strong emotions but I was just trying to pass along information from the horse's mouth per se. You can dismiss it or you can watch the interview and maybe learn something.

 

[Lytning]

Not sure if I’m going to trust someone who’s worked there for ford that is wearing a shirt that hasn’t even been put in a dryer to be a spokesperson with any level of integrity.

Good Engineers are known NOT to be suave and debonair.
I would be way more concerned if he were stylishly dressed.
The real test is, does he have a shirt pocket protector.

 

[22legit2quit]

Did you watch the interview?

He has worked at Ford for 4 years, but before that he was at Tesla for 12 years.

I know this topic evokes strong emotions but I was just trying to pass along information from the horse's mouth per se. You can dismiss it or you can watch the interview and maybe learn something.

I watched the interview. There’s good info but nothing groundbreaking. IMO it’s more fluff and empty promises. Ford claimed an 18 billion dollar loss and some of the others very similar, when they tout their “optimizations” or the capability to do so. Being in this community is pretty nice because at least you have the same gripes and complaints most of the time and all of the diy is really compelling. As far as the manufacturer and the retail side, there’s no difference it’s about profits, margins and economic moat. So my expectation is really unchanged.

18 billion dollars is roughly 33-50 percent of their market capitalization. That’s like telling your wife or SO that you spent the same ratio of your household budget fixing up your garage to scrap that and have nothing to show but a negative balance sheet.

Talking in flowery language about battery chemistry to some of us might work but to the greater populace they want something that works, is reliable and affordable. Which finding that at a car lot whether new or used has become more of a game of whack-a-mole.

With everything becoming automated and ai-oriented, I really can’t see the manhours on this being the factor that increases the price in reality.


The only real plus that I heard was talking about the bidirectional capability of the batteries, especially lithium. Listen towards the end where they talk about user experience and how apprehensive the speaker was. It’s going to be next level, news flash it already was.

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