2024 Lightning

[FirstF150InCasco]

Actually no. Make a few calls.

I have.

Dealers have ‘22s and ‘23s sitting on lots. Biggest selection is in the middle of the country.

Many are walking away from their orders given the price increases and removed items. With the 400+ mile range trucks coming online, the trend will accelerate.

pS I write economic modeling software.

And why should we care that you write economic modeling software?

Sponsored

 

[Bills R Electric]

What upgrades if any will the new model year have. More range? more efficient battery’s?

Maybe some tweeks....like in the 2024 F150 ICE....but I would guess not much change.

Behind the curtain, the SK Innovation builds the batteries for Ford, so it is possible SK Innovation makes small tweeks to their chemistry, but my guess it won't be significant. Battery manufacturers like SK Innovation have already squeezed the lemon really hard in an effort to improve.

*SK makes batteries in South Korea, China, Hungary and the United States for clients including Ford Motor Co , Volkswagen AG and Hyundai Motor Co/

 

[JTWIRE]

Maybe some tweeks....like in the 2024 F150 ICE....but I would guess not much change.

Behind the curtain, the SK Innovation builds the batteries for Ford, so it is possible SK Innovation makes small tweeks to their chemistry, but my guess it won't be significant. Battery manufacturers like SK Innovation have already squeezed the lemon really hard in an effort to improve.

*SK makes batteries in South Korea, China, Hungary and the United States for clients including Ford Motor Co , Volkswagen AG and Hyundai Motor Co/

Thank you for the data. I was thinking of waiting for the new model year before diving in. Don't know what to do.

 

[sotek2345]

Looks like at least 150 2022s listed as new on cars.com so I assume those are not special order and are sitting there ready to go. Some may be sitting because of markups, but they are out there for people that call around and are willing to travel to get one sooner.

I do think the announcement of the 400 mile GM platform and the 500 mile REV platform is going to take some wind out of Fords sails going into 2024 so it wouldn’t surprise me if Ford tries to cram a 400 mile battery into the chassis once demand tapers off enough

So 150 out of over 15,000. that is less than 1% available on lots. Not very much and likely less than rounding error in Ford's planning.

 

[Amps]

Looks like at least 150 2022s listed as new on cars.com so I assume those are not special order

If you can pull the sticker, dealer orders would be blue stickers, not special order green.

 

[gymgeek]

In Ford's capital markets presentations today, it was clearly said that Ford's direction is to NOT try to compete with 400+ mi ranges for EVs. They want to provide enough battery for 300 mi at 70 MPH and fast charging to refil that quickly. They also specifically said they will not achieve the 300 miles by throwing batteries at it. The goal is to make EVs as efficient as possible so they can use the smallest battery possible to achieve the goal.

Personally, I like that direction a lot more than throwing a metric crap ton of batteries in a brick of a vehicle to hit big range numbers. Good luck charging that big of a battery quickly. Also, 300 miles on the highway sounds like an excellent target for road tripping. Most people need to stop by then, so bigger numbers are just for bragging rights (assuming the vehicle can charge quickly).

 

[sotek2345]

In Ford's capital markets presentations today, it was clearly said that Ford's direction is to NOT try to compete with 400+ mi ranges for EVs. They want to provide enough battery for 300 mi at 70 MPH and fast charging to refil that quickly. They also specifically said they will not achieve the 300 miles by throwing batteries at it. The goal is to make EVs as efficient as possible so they can use the smallest battery possible to achieve the goal.

Personally, I like that direction a lot more than throwing a metric crap ton of batteries in a brick of a vehicle to hit big range numbers. Good luck charging that big of a battery quickly. Also, 300 miles on the highway sounds like an excellent target for road tripping. Most people need to stop by then, so bigger numbers are just for bragging rights (assuming the vehicle can charge quickly).

Honestly even 300 miles between stops is pushing it for human (bladder) endurance. That is ~4.5 hours at 70mph. I am usually ready for a stop after around 3.

That said, 300mi highway range in ideal temps, means making my 3 hour / 210 mile leg in winter conditions much more likely. Right now for a common drive I do the first leg is 185 miles and I have less than 40 miles to spare in my Lariat ER in the winter time. I would like to switch to a more snow rated tire, but worry about making that leg with reduced range.

 

[ChrisC]

Looks like at least 150 2022s listed as new on cars.com so I assume those are not special order and are sitting there ready to go. Some may be sitting because of markups, but they are out there for people that call around and are willing to travel to get one sooner.

I do think the announcement of the 400 mile GM platform and the 500 mile REV platform is going to take some wind out of Fords sails going into 2024 so it wouldn’t surprise me if Ford tries to cram a 400 mile battery into the chassis once demand tapers off enough

I think many are sitting because of added ADM that the dealers are imposing. A friend in NC went to look at a few listed 2022 models at 3 different dealerships near her and every one of them had an ADM of $10K that they added to MSRP. She couldn't justify the added expense and bought an ICE F150 at MSRP Ford really needs to crack down on these stealerships!

 

[roddiaz1]

About the “inventory” on Cars.con, a few months back, I called on several dealers listing new Lightings for sale only to find out that the vehicles didn’t really exist (or at least not physically present at the dealership) and they were just listed as click bait to sucker people in to calling or emailing.

I should have known as several of the listed one were Lightning PROs. That should have been my clue, right there.

 

[astricklin]

About the “inventory” on Cars.con, a few months back, I called on several dealers listing new Lightings for sale only to find out that the vehicles didn’t really exist (or at least not physically present at the dealership) and they were just listed as click bait to sucker people in to calling or emailing.

I should have known as several of the listed one were Lightning PROs. That should have been my clue, right there.

Ya, there's a new 2022 XLT out there that is listed for MSRP that has been listed way to long to exist. It either isn't actually there or it's marked way up

 

[KevinC]

I think many are sitting because of added ADM that the dealers are imposing. A friend in NC went to look at a few listed 2022 models at 3 different dealerships near her and every one of them had an ADM of $10K that they added to MSRP. She couldn't justify the added expense and bought an ICE F150 at MSRP Ford really needs to crack down on these stealerships!

It might not pan out, but I think things are at a point where it's worth negotiating down those dealer markups. Make'm an offer. They probably arent going to get the extra 10k anymore. So make an offer old-fashioned style. Can't hurt.

I was in a dealership over the weekend and they had an ICE marked down 7000$. with that kind of downward pricing pressure you cant compare ICE MSRP to EV MSRP anymore. Eventually, it will drag down the EV prices.

 

[JTWIRE]

It might not pan out, but I think things are at a point where it's worth negotiating down those dealer markups. Make'm an offer. They probably arent going to get the extra 10k anymore. So make an offer old-fashioned style. Can't hurt.

I was in a dealership over the weekend and they had an ICE marked down 7000$. with that kind of downward pricing pressure you cant compare ICE MSRP to EV MSRP anymore. Eventually, it will drag down the EV prices.

I agree and get a sense things are changing.

 

[TheWoo]

In Ford's capital markets presentations today, it was clearly said that Ford's direction is to NOT try to compete with 400+ mi ranges for EVs. They want to provide enough battery for 300 mi at 70 MPH and fast charging to refil that quickly. They also specifically said they will not achieve the 300 miles by throwing batteries at it. The goal is to make EVs as efficient as possible so they can use the smallest battery possible to achieve the goal.

Personally, I like that direction a lot more than throwing a metric crap ton of batteries in a brick of a vehicle to hit big range numbers. Good luck charging that big of a battery quickly. Also, 300 miles on the highway sounds like an excellent target for road tripping. Most people need to stop by then, so bigger numbers are just for bragging rights (assuming the vehicle can charge quickly).

I'd MUCH rather have 300 miles of range with 15 minute charging stops than 400 miles but 45 minute charging stops. 300 miles will be plenty of range once there are more charging stations and charging is faster.

Heck, it would almost be perfectly fine now if the Lightning could charge at 250 kw...

 

[COrocket]

It is refreshing to see that Ford isn’t simply going to throw more batteries on trucks to try and improve range and focus on efficiency to help hit their targets. A lighter truck that doesn’t spin the electric meter for 20+ hours is certainly welcome. However its going to be a lot of squeezing to get more range out of a 6500 lb brick shaped truck at interstate speeds. I was pretty impressed with the 2.0 miles/kWh I can get, considering an aerodynamically slick 3500 lb Tesla Y only does about 3 miles/kWh at 75 mph.

I personally think Ford is dead wrong about not trying to compete with other brands 400+ mile EVs, and I think they’ll be very popular with retail customers if prices become more reasonable. Especially if people want to use their trucks to travel. Reason being is even the current ER Lightning isn’t even close to being a true 300 highway mile truck. At 2.0 miles/kWh it’s a 260 mile truck at interstate speeds, and if you are working the battery 80-10% at each stop, that’s 182 miles max between charging stops (if you could space them perfect, which of course you can’t). And that’s even before talking about weather conditions and battery aging that could lower that number further.

Run the same numbers with a 500 mile “EPA rated” range truck and you get about 280-290 between stops on the highway (still a comfortable 200 in cold weather) which I think would comfort many more ICE owners who are hesitant to switch.

The elephant in the room is customers who want to tow, and that is going to be where the 500+ rated mile EV market will thrive. Ford can make the Lightning as efficient/light/aerodynamic as possible but those advantages are nullified when you are pulling a boat or travel trailer down the interstate. The 36 gallon tank that people like to spec in the ICE F-150 isn’t so you can drive 700+ miles unloaded without taking a piss break, it’s so you can get 300 towing miles out of your truck with a few gallons of contingency fuel to spare. It’s going to take a truck with 200-300+ kWh to satisfy the demands of this section of the truck market, and probably some battery tech advances along the way as well.

 

[dirtdiver]

Honestly even 300 miles between stops is pushing it for human (bladder) endurance. That is ~4.5 hours at 70mph. I am usually ready for a stop after around 3.

That said, 300mi highway range in ideal temps, means making my 3 hour / 210 mile leg in winter conditions much more likely. Right now for a common drive I do the first leg is 185 miles and I have less than 40 miles to spare in my Lariat ER in the winter time. I would like to switch to a more snow rated tire, but worry about making that leg with reduced range.

Remember that 300 miles of range is really minus 50 miles for worrying about will the charger actually work; minus 30miles for climate; minus 30 miles for tires, minus 30miles for driving 70mph, minus did you actually charge to 100%. So, in my book with my F150L 300miles of range is really more like 220 or less. Just my .02 since I bought (and love) my 150L.

Sponsored