Lightning WAVE 2 Emails Coming 1/19 For Ordering on 1/20 – Per Ford Customer Service

[matt.sillz]

1 week out. like waiting for christmas.

oof!

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[rdr854]

They can place orders anytime until 3/31. They will have fewer trims to choose from the longer they wait, though.

How quickly do you think the Lariat ER will sell out?

 

[Bill from King Ranch]

How quickly do you think the Lariat ER will sell out?

It's the model they forecast the most for, so I think it would be a while for it to be out.

 

[cts888]

I spoke with Ford customer service and that is what the lady told me YESTERDAY.

Also, my dealer called me TODAY to say they have been informed of a dealer allocation of 10 trucks for the next wave of orders.

They have me #8 on the list so they told me to watch out for the email next Wednesday or Thursday!!!

Super exciting!

You are #8 of how many? I could easily see 10 being allocated if your dealer has a ton of orders.. Mine has 600 plus so I am hoping for around 10 which would get me in wave 2 for sure.

 

[cts888]

There are "over 2,100 EV certified ford dealerships." So keeping numbers conservative to 15,000 lightnings made for 22MY, that means each dealer averages 7 lightnings. If wave 2 again shows only 1 order per dealer, and with 6 waves, that means ford realistically intends to take about 12,500 orders for 22MY for the wave phase, and then after 3/31, convert the remaining 2,500 orders to "balance out invitations" per their playbook.

The math adds up pretty damn perfect from our givens- 15,000 orders, 2,100 EV dealers, 1 order per dealer for wave 1, 6 waves plus 1 filler wave at the end.

Of course, there are variables with allotment, which will probably swing each dealers numbers from a few orders to maybe 15-20, but all i know is that wave 2 will clarify (or confuse the hell out of) everything.

To add on this - if there are around 200,000 reservations then that would equal almost 100 on average per dealer. So around 7 orders per dealer if that dealer has 100.

So the math would work out that a dealer with 200 reservations would get 14 trucks and a dealer with 15 reservations gets 1. I doubt that they will do it exactly like this, however I am expecting my dealer of 500+ to get at least 25

 

[sotek2345]

To add on this - if there are around 200,000 reservations then that would equal almost 100 on average per dealer. So around 7 orders per dealer if that dealer has 100.

So the math would work out that a dealer with 200 reservations would get 14 trucks and a dealer with 15 reservations gets 1. I doubt that they will do it exactly like this, however I am expecting my dealer of 500+ to get at least 25

Your math works, but I not sure that reservations at a dealer will be the biggest factor in allocations. Previous sales history, especially with trucks and F150s will play a big role (for good or ill)

 

[jazzmanmonty]

I did the math as well quite a number of times, and of course I agree. However we need to factor in fleet sales, cancellations, priorities, and etc.

The sad thing is a number of us reserved in the first 24 hours, and now we are looking at the 23MY instead.

Fleet sales is the greatest unknown variable. Virtually no info about fleet sales has leaked aside from ordering process, and nobody on here shared their fleet ordering experience... My opinion is that the initial 15,000 lightnings stated for 22MY may not include fleet numbers. My reasoning is that most fleet orders would be Pro's. Ford plans to make about 4.8% (720) Pros in 22MY. Fleet orders got a one day head start. Judging by how much volume fleet's buy, i think they would have all been scooped up on 1/5. But there were a LOT of people that got to order Pro's during first wave 1/6. So based on the fact that most 22MY production will focus on Platinum and Lariat's, i think fleet orders will be delivered in 2023 (Remember that rental fleet vehicles are assigned special VIN's, are built below base model quality and have a very thin profit margin due to volume.)

If you get pushed to 23MY, it not be as bad as it seems. All the production kinks will be worked out, and even though the MSRP may increase one or two grand, and the new $12,500 EV rebate (which is refundable vs current $7,500 non-refundable) may pass by then. So it could be a double bonus. One of my biggest fears is that i'll take delivery of my pro probably this fall, and then at the beginning or middle of next year, the new EV rebate will pass and i'll be screwed out of an extra $5k discount.

Also, I just went over to the ford fleet website. On there, they claim that they have 2,300 certified EV dealers, not the original 2,100 stated before. That brings the average down to roughly 6 lightnings per dealer.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

To add on this - if there are around 200,000 reservations then that would equal almost 100 on average per dealer. So around 7 orders per dealer if that dealer has 100.

So the math would work out that a dealer with 200 reservations would get 14 trucks and a dealer with 15 reservations gets 1. I doubt that they will do it exactly like this, however I am expecting my dealer of 500+ to get at least 25

This is from the leaked 12.7 playbook. It may help paint a better picture of the numbers. They did state "prioritization does not guarantee allocation." which most likely means even though you have max 25 prioritizations, don't expect to get that many. Unfortunately, they didn't give more specific info about this in the 1.3 playbook.

 

[astricklin]

According to the playbook 2023 ordering should commence 'mid year' so I'd guess July/August and production of 2023 starts Q4 so I would imagine delivery possibly in November or maybe December. So the first 2023 truck should be delivered 9 or 10 months after the first 2022 is delivered. Honestly not that terrible of a wait.
Also Ford is going to deliver the first retail lightning less than a year from the reservation start. The Silverado first edition isn't going to be delivered until the end of 2023 and the regular ones starting in 2024. That's 2 years after the unveiling.

 

[SmoothJ]

As I stated in thread, Palmer stated that 15K - 18K amount for this year was incorrect, and stated going into 2023, they will be producing 80K per year. He did not say how many will be produced for 22MY though as it’s a company secret.

 

[TheRealDlo]

You are #8 of how many? I could easily see 10 being allocated if your dealer has a ton of orders.. Mine has 600 plus so I am hoping for around 10 which would get me in wave 2 for sure.

I believe my Dealer said they had 140+

 

[Tbone]

Stopped by my dealer a couple days ago and asked if they had any updates. They told me they would only be getting three this MY (one so far). They said I could cancel my reservation if I wanted to otherwise probably next year. Are we thinking dealerships are seeing their whole allocation or just a wave in advance? They never say anything about my place in line, just that they have a lot of reservations. I can't decide if I think it's honesty, incompetence, or something else.

 

[SmoothJ]

Stopped by my dealer a couple days ago and asked if they had any updates. They told me they would only be getting three this MY (one so far). They said I could cancel my reservation if I wanted to otherwise probably next year. Are we thinking dealerships are seeing their whole allocation or just a wave in advance? They never say anything about my place in line, just that they have a lot of reservations. I can't decide if I think it's honesty, incompetence, or something else.

From what I understand, they can guess on how many they will receive but no dealer is sure about how many they will receive. My dealer in NJ has well over 159 reservations, and I am in the top 10. However they think they will get 10-15 in this year, but not sure.

 

[TexasGuy]

Looks like there is a ton of overthinking this. We are trying to solve for a number when most of the factors we don’t know: allocations per dealer, number to be built in MY 22, prioritization of certain states, how many per wave, what Ford is thinking, etc.

I’m supposedly #6 at my dealer, and I am like a kid on Christmas waiting for the email too. But I know that we will get our emails when we get them. All this mental masterbation will not change that. If you’re trying to figure it out because it‘s fun, go for it. Otherwise, just sit back and check your email a couple of times a day, which I think you do anyway. Don’t get hung up on other’s almost always inaccurate speculation.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Fleet sales is the greatest unknown variable. Virtually no info about fleet sales has leaked aside from ordering process, and nobody on here shared their fleet ordering experience... My opinion is that the initial 15,000 lightnings stated for 22MY may not include fleet numbers. My reasoning is that most fleet orders would be Pro's. Ford plans to make about 4.8% (720) Pros in 22MY. Fleet orders got a one day head start. Judging by how much volume fleet's buy, i think they would have all been scooped up on 1/5. But there were a LOT of people that got to order Pro's during first wave 1/6. So based on the fact that most 22MY production will focus on Platinum and Lariat's, i think fleet orders will be delivered in 2023 (Remember that rental fleet vehicles are assigned special VIN's, are built below base model quality and have a very thin profit margin due to volume.)

If you get pushed to 23MY, it not be as bad as it seems. All the production kinks will be worked out, and even though the MSRP may increase one or two grand, and the new $12,500 EV rebate (which is refundable vs current $7,500 non-refundable) may pass by then. So it could be a double bonus. One of my biggest fears is that i'll take delivery of my pro probably this fall, and then at the beginning or middle of next year, the new EV rebate will pass and i'll be screwed out of an extra $5k discount.

Also, I just went over to the ford fleet website. On there, they claim that they have 2,300 certified EV dealers, not the original 2,100 stated before. That brings the average down to roughly 6 lightnings per dealer.

Appreciate your optimism, and I also think getting a 23 isn’t the end of the world. The tax credit situation, however, could very easily play out exactly opposite to what you said. This delay in receiving the vehicle could push us to where only half the current credit amount is still available, in effect costing us $3750 on top of the higher MSRP. Or a new congress could decide to do away with the credit completely. Ford could do a lot of good here by promising to keep 2023 MSRP the same as 2022, at least for the folks that were only pushed to 23 by Ford’s decision to allow dealers to prioritize.

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