My Lightning burned to the ground

[Maxx]

From the Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and international studies (2024–2026)

Those studies normalize by miles traveled but not by age. A study in 22 shows correlation with age (pg 7-8). I assume most of the vehicles in study were ICE but if the same holds true for BEV, we should see our % fire go up as we have more older BEVs on the road. That probably would drop back down at some point as safer battery tech get implemented in BEVs.


From the report:
”Approximately three-quarters of the highway vehicle fires reported in the involved vehicles with model years of 2011 or earlier (cars 10–11 years old).”



https://content.nfpa.org/-/media/Pr...ires.pdf?rev=928a1755d83249dfb5a951905ee7e336

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[Bestword57]

Well, they have been making Nissan Leafs since 2010.

 

[Maxx]

Well, they have been making Nissan Leafs since 2010.

The point is not if they exist on the road. Proportion of 2010 EVs on the road to total EVs on the road vs proportion of 2010 ICE vehicles on the road to total ICE is in question.

 

[Bestword57]

The point is not if they exist on the road. Proportion of 2010 EVs on the road to total EVs on the road vs proportion of 2010 ICE vehicles on the road to total ICE is in question.

Appreciate the catch, Maxx. You're right that we have a 'vanguard' of older EVs like the Leaf (2010+) and even some early Model S units hitting that 12-15 year mark.

The real statistical 'hiccup' is the volume disparity. In 2011, there were about 10k Leafs sold in the US vs. 12 million ICE vehicles. When the NFPA pulls data on '10-year-old cars,' the ICE sample size is massive, while the 2011-era BEV sample is more of a rounding error.

Basically, the '20x safer' headlines we see today are heavily carried by the millions of 2021-2024 BEVs that are still in their honeymoon phase. We won't have a truly 'age-adjusted' data set until this current wave of Lightnings and EVs hits its 12th birthday in the mid-2030s. That’s when we’ll see if the 'fire per 100k' curve stays flat or follows the ICE trend as components age

 

[Sneakypetie78]

Always one guy...

No chit, eh.

 

[chl]

Everyone should submerge their truck in firefighting foam each night for safety.

Unfortunately, it is a known carcinogen - that is NOW they know this.
One of my grandsons is studying to be a firefighter.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...0QFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw03yTk3WyK6C2smzlSF_B5c

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...0QFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0AAhhTEF0NYL7QcDRw8NXe

 

[chl]

Appreciate the catch, Maxx. You're right that we have a 'vanguard' of older EVs like the Leaf (2010+) and even some early Model S units hitting that 12-15 year mark.

The real statistical 'hiccup' is the volume disparity. In 2011, there were about 10k Leafs sold in the US vs. 12 million ICE vehicles. When the NFPA pulls data on '10-year-old cars,' the ICE sample size is massive, while the 2011-era BEV sample is more of a rounding error.

Basically, the '20x safer' headlines we see today are heavily carried by the millions of 2021-2024 BEVs that are still in their honeymoon phase. We won't have a truly 'age-adjusted' data set until this current wave of Lightnings and EVs hits its 12th birthday in the mid-2030s. That’s when we’ll see if the 'fire per 100k' curve stays flat or follows the ICE trend as components age

My 2012 Leaf still going strong since Dec 2011 with just under 80% SOH HVB.

Never had a problem with anything on it - except when AT&T stopped supporting the 2g and 3g, I lost my Carwings connection, no big deal, it's right there in my garage if I need to check anything, turn it on or off, etc.

 

[chl]

Well, they have been making Nissan Leafs since 2010.

First deliveries were Dec 2010 of the 2011 model year - I had registered but missed out and got a 2012 MY in Dec 2011.

 

[chriserx]

Unfortunately, it is a known carcinogen - that is NOW they know this.
One of my grandsons is studying to be a firefighter.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...0QFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw03yTk3WyK6C2smzlSF_B5c

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...0QFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0AAhhTEF0NYL7QcDRw8NXe

It's much worse than that. Many, if not all contain PFOAs.

Edit: Well that's what I get for clicking the links after...

 

[chl]

It's much worse than that. Many, if not all contain PFOAs.

Edit: Well that's what I get for clicking the links after...

LOL, I've had the same experience.

A cautionary tale for all those who want to roll back any and all regulation of chemicals, drugs, food, carbon pollution, etc.

Snake oil salesmen with deep pockets.

BTW, the original snake oil salesman was Clark Stanley:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/inno...me-a-symbol-of-fraud-and-deception-180985300/

The Chinese used a particular snake in their herbal medicines - Clark didn't.

One of the Chinese medicines for leukemia is now standard treatment for APML, it's a form of Vit A and a form of arsenic administered for a period of a month intensively in the hospital followed by 3 or more months daily out patient - my wife went through it in 2024-2025 and is now cancer free.

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