Future Battery Upgrades?

[SmoothJ]

I wish, but I doubt it. Battery technology is changing, but in 5 years it won't be vastly different. We being the guinea pigs bought a nice truck, and helped pave the way for future EVs to come. However deep inside we knew it wasn't going to be "supported" in several years. This is the nature of technology.

In regards to warranties, they are usually best effort, and when these battery packs have issues, or the center stack or IP goes dead for unknown reasons, we have to realize that parts maybe on back-order or never come at all. This is not only the future of this truck, or other EVs, but all these high-tech future cars in general.

Sponsored

 

[Maxx]

I am sure you have seen this video regarding what people do when batteries get old:




Alex here thinks manufacturers are designing EVs for new car buyers not the used car buyers when they get old:




However old F150 owners always find a way to keep them running.

 

[AZT9]

Doubtful.

There is a lot of work in the verification process for a new battery to be used in a vehicle. You need to drop a lot of packs, submerge a lot of packs, short circuit a lot of packs, put a BUNCH of packs into thermal runaway, crush a lot of packs, shake a lot of packs, thermal shock a lot of packs, etc.

I figure that if EVERY test goes perfectly and passes all the criteria, you are looking at well a couple of hundred packs. If something fails, you redesign and start over on all the tests.

I do this for a living (check my bio) and we are working on packs that will be introduced in a couple of years. I blow up so many packs that I have a backlog processing the hazardous waste iaw the CFRs

Well, with your Expertise,
What’s your opinion on the “Next Best thing” and a best estimate on timeframe for said thing to pass validation for mass market? I read a lot about “breakthrough” battery tech and it’s promising but seems as you said years off if not only due to cost and scale but a lengthy validation for the automotive market.

thanks for your intel!

 

[Ventorum94]

Sorry if this subject has been covered elsewhere. I have searched and didn’t see anything. A link to that thread would gladly be accepted.

Otherwise, here’s the question to the collective:

With the advancements in this battery technology moving forward at light speed and the competition coming out with superior range capability, What’s the likelihood that our early Lightnings will have an option (expensive one no doubt) to upgrade and gain additional range?

Thoughts, Opinions or Insight?

It seems likely to me that ‘22-‘23 SR packs may be replaceable with SR packs from the new plant (USA) Ford is building with CATL (Chinese global leader in LFP battery technology). MME is getting these LFP packs in 2024. Likely same or smaller size pack, but potentially more usable range through LFP’s ability to charge to 100% without degradation (if you regularly stop charging at 80%, which is good practice, and run down to 10%, then being able to routinely charge to 100% gives you 29% more range). Three other advantages of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) packs are:
1) many more charge cycles possible over lifetime (“million-mile” battery)
2) less prone to thermal runaway, including if punctured in a collision. Safer!
3) cheaper cost (than current Lightning NCA batteries).
Drawbacks? even poorer performance in cold weather, and heavier per kwh stored, than NCA batteries.

 

[Revenge]

Sorry if this subject has been covered elsewhere. I have searched and didn’t see anything. A link to that thread would gladly be accepted.

Otherwise, here’s the question to the collective:

With the advancements in this battery technology moving forward at light speed and the competition coming out with superior range capability, What’s the likelihood that our early Lightnings will have an option (expensive one no doubt) to upgrade and gain additional range?

Thoughts, Opinions or Insight?

Correct me if I am wrong but "the competition coming out with superior range capability" means just a bigger battery. I am speaking in reference to the Ram EV. I thought it was stated somewhere that they efficiency is still only about 2-2.2mi/kw. If that is truly the case then the battery technology isn't really improving that much correct?

 

[Bills R Electric]

Sorry if this subject has been covered elsewhere. I have searched and didn’t see anything. A link to that thread would gladly be accepted.

Otherwise, here’s the question to the collective:

With the advancements in this battery technology moving forward at light speed and the competition coming out with superior range capability, What’s the likelihood that our early Lightnings will have an option (expensive one no doubt) to upgrade and gain additional range?

Thoughts, Opinions or Insight?

Very Doubtful. Ford is in businsess to sell new units.

They will be happy to let you trade it in on the next Gen Lightning.....due in 2026.

 

[The Weatherman]

Very Doubtful. Ford is in businsess to sell new units.

They will be happy to let you trade it in on the next Gen Lightning.....due in 2026.

You are probably correct. However, I would be more likely to trade it in on Maverick. I am hoping it comes out in fully electric by then.

Something to watch for anyway.

 

[Bills R Electric]

You are probably correct. However, I would be more likely to trade it in on Maverick. I am hoping it comes out in fully electric by then.

Something to watch for anyway.

An ALL EV Maverick would be a great idea.

 

[The Weatherman]

An ALL EV Maverick would be a great idea.

I traded the first one I bought last year for the Lightning. Couldn’t pass the deal even though I really loved the Maverick. Great little truck with good resale value. It had 11500 milles they gave $2k more than I paid a year and a half ago.

 

[MickeyAO]

Well, with your Expertise,
What’s your opinion on the “Next Best thing” and a best estimate on timeframe for said thing to pass validation for mass market? I read a lot about “breakthrough” battery tech and it’s promising but seems as you said years off if not only due to cost and scale but a lengthy validation for the automotive market.

thanks for your intel!

When you read about 'breakthroughs', it is important to find out the size of the cell. Most of these announcements with 200% better capacity, and 500% longer life, are actually at the coin cell size and are considered to be in the basic research phase. Now you have to see what the problems are as you try to scale up. If you manage to clear the hurdles at the basic, now you can move into the advanced research phase, which is where my lab typically operates. The things I consider mature and ready to pass onto the next phase are usually several years away.

 

[MickeyAO]

It seems likely to me that ‘22-‘23 SR packs may be replaceable with SR packs from the new plant (USA) Ford is building with CATL (Chinese global leader in LFP battery technology). MME is getting these LFP packs in 2024. Likely same or smaller size pack, but potentially more usable range through LFP’s ability to charge to 100% without degradation (if you regularly stop charging at 80%, which is good practice, and run down to 10%, then being able to routinely charge to 100% gives you 29% more range). Three other advantages of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) packs are:
1) many more charge cycles possible over lifetime (“million-mile” battery)
2) less prone to thermal runaway, including if punctured in a collision. Safer!
3) cheaper cost (than current Lightning NCA batteries).
Drawbacks? even poorer performance in cold weather, and heavier per kwh stored, than NCA batteries.

See my response on what it takes to certify a new battery. Ford can't just say today "I think we should change" and expect it to happen in this model year. Now, if they read the tea leaves correctly two or three years ago and started the certification, then MAYBE this model year.

 

[MickeyAO]

Battery tech is not advancing at “light speed”. We won’t see a substantial shift until solid state batteries can be produced cost effectively at scale — likely a decade away.

There might be other technologies/chemistries that will be better than solid state and beat it to market

 

[Bills R Electric]

Correct me if I am wrong but "the competition coming out with superior range capability" means just a bigger battery. I am speaking in reference to the Ram EV. I thought it was stated somewhere that they efficiency is still only about 2-2.2mi/kw. If that is truly the case then the battery technology isn't really improving that much correct?

The competition will come out with longer driving range vehicles. Eventually.
As will Tesla. But it won't be next year. It is going to take a while.
All the CATLs, LGs, etc are working hard on efficiency gains. They have been building batteries for a long time.

 

[Roy2001]

No way.

 

[MickeyAO]

It seems likely to me that ‘22-‘23 SR packs may be replaceable with SR packs from the new plant (USA) Ford is building with CATL (Chinese global leader in LFP battery technology). MME is getting these LFP packs in 2024. Likely same or smaller size pack, but potentially more usable range through LFP’s ability to charge to 100% without degradation (if you regularly stop charging at 80%, which is good practice, and run down to 10%, then being able to routinely charge to 100% gives you 29% more range). Three other advantages of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) packs are:
1) many more charge cycles possible over lifetime (“million-mile” battery)
2) less prone to thermal runaway, including if punctured in a collision. Safer! but for other reasons
3) cheaper cost (than current Lightning NCA batteries). Why are you comparing it to NCA (Tesla/Panasonic/Sanyo) when we have NMC batteries?
Drawbacks? even poorer performance in cold weather, and heavier per kwh stored, than NCA batteries. Why do you keep comparing it to NCA?

Unfortunately, I only skimmed over your points in my first response. A closer examination of your points requires emojis for each point. See above
I would be interested in seeing your sources for your information.

Sponsored