Future Battery Upgrades?

[KevinC]

I have to wonder , regardless of chemistry, if they will at least start to move to a standard package(s). When you have a flashlight that takes 2 D batteries, it doesnt matter if you use energizer or duracell or walmart knock off brand. 1.5 volts is 1.5 volts and it's in the same size package. The name brands hopefully shine brighter and last longer. Ideally EV's can whittle it down to less than 10 package formats that are relatively interchangeable between brands in the future. Then you can go into the shop with something like a truck and get 10 size Z batteries where-as a explorer uses 6 Z batteries. Right now every battery is a custom fit to some degree. Even if manufacturers use the same chemistry or even basic cells, they pack them into different shapes and drastically different quantities.

I also wonder if anyone is actually certifying the batteries for EV use. Is US DOT certifying them? If Joe Schmoe gets ahold of a bunch of cells hoping to do a permanent upgrade, is there anything to legally stop them from putting them into a car and driving? Sure it might void the warranty, but beyond that?

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[The Weatherman]

I have to wonder , regardless of chemistry, if they will at least start to move to a standard package(s). When you have a flashlight that takes 2 D batteries, it doesnt matter if you use energizer or duracell or walmart knock off brand. 1.5 volts is 1.5 volts and it's in the same size package. The name brands hopefully shine brighter and last longer. Ideally EV's can whittle it down to less than 10 package formats that are relatively interchangeable between brands in the future. Then you can go into the shop with something like a truck and get 10 size Z batteries where-as a explorer uses 6 Z batteries. Right now every battery is a custom fit to some degree. Even if manufacturers use the same chemistry or even basic cells, they pack them into different shapes and drastically different quantities.

I also wonder if anyone is actually certifying the batteries for EV use. Is US DOT certifying them? If Joe Schmoe gets ahold of a bunch of cells hoping to do a permanent upgrade, is there anything to legally stop them from putting them into a car and driving? Sure it might void the warranty, but beyond that?

Thanks for the post. That is an insightful evaluation of the current and potential future possibilities. I hadn’t thought about it terms of our current battery environment.

 

[Jarratt]

Doubtful.

There is a lot of work in the verification process for a new battery to be used in a vehicle. You need to drop a lot of packs, submerge a lot of packs, short circuit a lot of packs, put a BUNCH of packs into thermal runaway, crush a lot of packs, shake a lot of packs, thermal shock a lot of packs, etc.

I figure that if EVERY test goes perfectly and passes all the criteria, you are looking at well a couple of hundred packs. If something fails, you redesign and start over on all the tests.

I do this for a living (check my bio) and we are working on packs that will be introduced in a couple of years. I blow up so many packs that I have a backlog processing the hazardous waste iaw the CFRs

he's a link to a video about the certification process..its arduous.

 

[patrickj62]

I'm one who keeps my vehicles until they don't run anymore, and I don't put in a lot of mileage on an annual basis. So it's a safe bet that I will be covered by the 8-year warranty for the full duration. My theory (based on no facts, just my opinion), it that at some point Ford may either replace my packs with better ones, or make me an offer I can't refuse to retire the vehicle. As others have said, I think the technology will continue to advance by leaps and bounds. As some point it will be cheaper for Ford to retrofit older packs with new technology rather than trying to continue to repair them.

I think you got it right - it will depend on what is most economically viable for Ford. Most cars/trucks are designed to be replaced in 7-10 years. Ford Lighting will be no different. New features and expensive repairs are the motivations to trade in your old vehicle for a new one... The only way I think Ford will offer upgraded batteries is if the current ones begin to fail at a high rate and replacing them under warranty begins to look like a recall - a very expensive event. Ford would much rather you replace your whole truck when the warranty runs out, than simply the batteries...

 

[Amps]

Ford would much rather you replace your whole truck when the warranty runs out, than simply the batteries...

Ah, but a lot of ICE suppliers and aftermarket companies will be looking for survival money. They'll want to sell you a re-manufactured battery with a significant core charge returned for the old battery, or install new guts in your old battery case. There could be significant weight, technology, and range improvements.

 

[Calvin H-C]

It’ll all depend on how Ford plans to support their vehicles.

I'll start off by saying: past performance may not be indicative of future performance.

Ford started producing the Focus Electric in 2011 with a 23 kWh battery. In 2017, they upgraded to a 33 kWh battery (while keeping the price the same as 2016).

From multiple accounts I've heard/read about, owners of an FFE with the 23 kWh battery that was replaced in recent years received the 33 kWh battery. From my understanding, the car has to be configured to take advantage of the larger capacity, otherwise it will still operate as if it was a 23 kWh battery.

 

[MickeyAO]

he's a link to a video about the certification process..its arduous.

That last bullet on D-Sample (Verification not completed) is what a lot of our work is on right now. And we blow up a lot of batteries during this step! Sometimes we might receive C-Samples instead of D-Samples if the OEM is somewhat confident in the design and want to get a leg up on the timeline. I could have the coolest YouTube channel if I was allowed to publish the things I've recorded

 

[GoodSam]

I am hoping for a Mr. Fusion power pack about 8 years from now!
Mr. Fusion available from Ebay!

 

[alexose]

I wouldn't count on this happening necessarily, but I can imagine (maybe 10 years from now) an independent company offering solid state battery swaps for the current gen Lightning.

Between the Mach E and the Lightning, it's not crazy to imagine that there will be a million vehicles on the road that use the same types of battery modules. Maybe only 5% of drivers will opt to upgrade the battery, that's still around 500k modules. Potentially worth tooling up a small factory for that if you think you could turn a decent profit per module.

Assuming the software can deal with the added capacity, anyone with the tools to perform a module swap could then change out all the old modules. Plus, the old modules would still have plenty of value for stationary power storage.

 

[Jim Lewis]

The thread is basically about what to replace/upgrade old batteries with - and if that's possible, etc. However, the other side of the coin is where the old batteries go. I thought at one point Musk imagined old Tesla vehicle batteries could be used as Powerwall batteries, etc. So I wonder if we splurged on the HIS "Intelligent" Backup system, if we had space for the battery pack somewhere, whether the pack could keep serving as a home backup/power storage unit for offpeak electricity, etc., well beyond its useful life in the truck. Perhaps if you hoped to sell your old truck as a used vehicle, there'd have to be 3rd party replacement batteries to allow the truck to carry on, too.

 

[WhipSticks]

Short-term incremental improvements in the aspects of battery technology that are critical for automotive applications--charge density (i.e. range), recharge rate, cycle lifespan half-life, weight, component availability and cost--will probably not warrant a new battery replacement for the Lightning. When you look at changes coming over the next decade or so, however, things become much more interesting.

For example, Aluminum ion-based batteries (such as Aluminum-Sulfer batteries) have great potential. They are cheap (estimated material costs between 16% and 19% kWh based on current material proves), made of among the most common elements on Earth (Al and Su), can have very high charge density and have incredible re-charge times (imagine 1000 mile range and re-charge rates faster than ICE rates).

This video talks about them a little in the last few minutes (most of the video is about Al-ion graphene batteries which are also pretty cool). EV owners should get to know the youtube channel of this guy anyway ("Undecided with Matt Farrell"--he is deeply into efficiency and environmental sustainability).

 

[Jim Lewis]

the most common elements on Earth (Al and Su),

"Amongst the most common elements on Earth" is probably a better expression to use. (I see among a few words before - I missed its antecedence).

The elemental symbol for sulfur in chemical notation is S. Sulfuric acid is H2SO4 (sorry, don't know how to use subscripts on this site for the 2 & 4). I'm just lightheartedly offering the observation since you went to the trouble of referring to the elemental symbols!

% abundance depends on whether you rank by % mass or % number of atoms, but here's a ranking of abundance in the Earth's crust. Sulfur does not make it into the top ten.

10 Most Abundant Elements In Earth's Crust

1. Oxygen - 46.1%
2. Silicon - 28.2%
3. Aluminium - 8.23%
4. Iron - 5.63%
5. Calcium - 4.15%
6. Sodium - 2.36%
7. Magnesium - 2.33%
8. Potassium - 2.09%
9. Titanium - 0.565%
10. Hydrogen - 0.140%

I think the ranking is by % mass. If you rank by # of atoms, hydrogen would probably be closer to the top of the table. Source: The Most Abundant Elements In The Earth's Crust - WorldAtlas.

According to the following, sulfur comes in at #16: Mineral Resource of the Month: Sulfur (earthmagazine.org) It's still pretty abundant, relatively speaking.

 

[cdherman]

I am far less concerned about the battery pack. Li batteries in their "old age" tend to degrade less and less. If they don't fail early, they are not likely to fail later. They will degrade gradually. The Er truck will have range of an SR and the SR even worse, but still decent and reliable.

I am far more worried about the all new and complicated cooling systems and electronics and just the issues associated with a new truck design. I fear that our 2023 Lighting could be a nightmare in 15 years or sooner.

Many trucks are driven (before they are totaled, crushed etc) by multiple owners. Its a foodchain. I worry the truck "foodchain" so to speak could be hard on those fellows that rely on an old truck because they cannot afford better. Old trucks are repaired by shade tree mechanics or independent shops. That will be harder and harder with EV stuff.

My family farm tends to buy new and drive till death or near. Oldest truck is 58 years old (not fair, restored F100 65') but the '95 1500 Silverado is a true beater. 2004 Chevy also beat up and used. Next is a 2008 2500HD. Newest is a 2009 unit.

The 2023 Lightning will be the first Ford since 1988 (don't have the F250 anymore). But I seriously doubt the Lightning will make 20 years. 58? Never.

Now, the batteries will get re-used or recycled. For sure. Rest=Crush

 

[MickeyAO]

Short-term incremental improvements in the aspects of battery technology that are critical for automotive applications--charge density (i.e. range), recharge rate, cycle lifespan half-life, weight, component availability and cost--will probably not warrant a new battery replacement for the Lightning. When you look at changes coming over the next decade or so, however, things become much more interesting.

For example, Aluminum ion-based batteries (such as Aluminum-Sulfer batteries) have great potential. They are cheap (estimated material costs between 16% and 19% kWh based on current material proves), made of among the most common elements on Earth (Al and Su), can have very high charge density and have incredible re-charge times (imagine 1000 mile range and re-charge rates faster than ICE rates).

This video talks about them a little in the last few minutes (most of the video is about Al-ion graphene batteries which are also pretty cool). EV owners should get to know the youtube channel of this guy anyway ("Undecided with Matt Farrell"--he is deeply into efficiency and environmental sustainability).

At least they talked about the dendrite problem, but they really glossed over the cycle life problem. Currently, the biggest form factor available is a coin cell (although the talk about pouch cells is coming 'soon')

Yes, the research holds potential but do not expect commercial cells for quite a while.

 

[KevinC]

I don't believe that Ford is building stockpiles of the current SK batteries so that if your battery died in about 7 years they would have the exact same one to put in it. They would fulfill the warranty with the closest available replacement available at that time. Batteries are changing and improving a little every year. If they replaced it under warranty in 7 years it would probably either have better kwh or be lighter from whatever supplier they are using at that time.

I guess my point being is that it seems there will inevitably be a better battery available if for no other reason than to satisfy future warranty claims. If Ford can stuff a new battery in there in 7 years than others will be able to as well.

https://evsenhanced.com/aftermarket-battery/

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