HV battery pack replacement questions

[djwildstar]

Here is the link to the Insideevs article that I got the 1% from, https://insideevs.com/news/720398/study-battery-replacement-rates-evs/.

The 1% figure mentioned in the article is over the entire vehicle lifetime, and not per year.

So that means for "recent" (2016-2024) EVs, excluding battery recalls, fewer than 1% have ever needed a battery replacement. For the vehicles in the study, this is also within the battery warranty period, which at minimum suggests that carmakers have gotten very good at engineering a battery that will not need replacement under warranty.

We don't know how 2022 and newer batteries will age once they're out of warranty, simply because we have no examples that are old enough. That said, it isn't unreasonable to assume that they will age at least as well as the average over the 14 years studied. This suggests that you have a less than 2.5% chance of ever requiring a new battery.

This is on the same order of magnitude as ICE vehicles that require a new engine or new transmission during their useful life. In general, worrying about EV battery replacement cost is a lot like worrying about gas vehicle engine replacement cost. Yes, it is something that sometimes makes sense, but no, it isn't normal, usual, or expected.

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[chl]

I would not expect that, if for no other reason than the Ford software is setup for 98, 123, or 131kWh, nothing more.

Software can be modified.

 

[Zprime29]

Where there's a will, there's a way. I would not be surprised to see the community figure out a way to update the SW. Perhaps we can petition Ford to make it open source after the 10 years of support drops. Likely a pipe dream but a lot can happen in a decade.

 

[chl]

Where there's a will, there's a way. I would not be surprised to see the community figure out a way to update the SW. Perhaps we can petition Ford to make it open source after the 10 years of support drops. Likely a pipe dream but a lot can happen in a decade.

Well at least they could come up with any modification needed to transition to a replacement battery and license it.

It could just be a value the software uses, like when you change tire dimensions? Maybe a FORscan tweak?

I think when folks upgrade to a larger battery in the old Nissan Leafs they have to tweak some things, replace or reprogram the BMS and the CAN bridge, but it is doable by EV shop pros.

A step by step explanation for the Leaf:

https://cnsbattery.com/nissan-leaf-battery-upgrade-from-24kwh-to-62kwh-step-by-step-guide-and-costs/

But I also read about a plug-n-play upgrade on the Leaf forum where all the dirty work has been done.



But for the Lightning, it may just be a value that the software uses rather than a rewrite or replacing things?

 

[chl]

There will probably be some plug-n-play upgrades for the Lightnings in a few years, if the demand is there, the product will come.

 

[chl]

Maybe it will be sodium-ion or some other cheaper chemistry?

 

[Zprime29]

Maybe it will be sodium-ion or some other cheaper chemistry?

Unlikely on the sodium-ion, the energy density is worse than LFP.

 

[chl]

Unlikely on the sodium-ion, the energy density is worse than LFP.

Yes at present, but CATL is also working on other technologies beside the Naxtra sodium-ion battery, including a battery hybrid-part Li and part NACL-ion the "Frevoy."

They also have the Qilin Condensed Battery (LFP) and the Shenxing Superfast Charging Battery.

So who knows what the future holds re battery improvements?

April 2026 article:

https://thedriven.io/2026/04/22/cat...cluding-1500km-ev-option-and-6-minute-charge/

 

[chl]

Also battery swapping:


"Finally, CATL also introduced an integrated supercharging and battery-swapping network which it has designed as a unified system, rather than separate solutions. Built on three different technologies – home charging, public charging, and battery swapping – the new system aims to deliver the optimal charging system for EVs.

Battery swapping stations for both CATL’s “Choco-Swap” passenger EVs and “QIJI” heavy trucks will also now be equipped with Shenxing supercharging systems in integrated stations which CATL expects will reduce energy conversion steps and lower overall power loss.

CATL is planning to build 4,000 of these integrated charge-swap stations by the end of 2026, covering nearly 190 cities in China and a nationwide network spanning 12 vertical and 11 horizontal corridors...."

 

[callistus]

I did a Google search for the standard HV battery part number. I didn't check availability but the prices seem much more reasonable than the used ones on eBay someone posted here previously... I didn't have the part number for the extended range assembly handy but curious what the price difference would be.

 

[chl]

I'm assume those prices are for one module but which kind?
The whole pack has 9 total and these are the three configurations at least at the time I got this image (note the kWh includes the 'buffer' the usable kWh is lower):

So let's say a whole ER battery with 9 modules costs 9 x $2500 = $22,500.

 

[chl]

Anyway it is good to know there is someone who is 'remanufacturing' them!

 

[MidAtlanticLightningClub]

$29k plus labor. Most of our trucks will be worth less than that in a year. This is insane.

I’d consider it for at/about $10k installed. Otherwise these trucks become parts bins, no different than high end luxury cars.

Except I know of no Lightning that has needed an entirely new pack. Modules are much cheaper.

 

[MidAtlanticLightningClub]

As our Lightnings age, we need to be thinking about what we are going to do when the high voltage battery packs need to be replaced. I am probably going to hit the 100k mile warranty limit in less than three years. With a statistical failure rate for all EVs requiring pack replacement of 1% per year, the chances are that my pack will out live me by decades but what if I’m one of the unlucky ones that has a premature pack failure?

Would I try to hang on to the Lightning and replace the battery or just junk the Lightning and try to find something else? These questions are nothing new but what is new is that companies like Green tec are now offering replacement battery packs for our Lightnings. And there are already a lot of different options available to us, from replacing entire battery packs, to only replacing individual battery modules, to salvaging battery packs from wrecks.

Of course I won’t know what I would do until I’m forced to make a decision and I evaluate the choice available to me at that time. I would say though that I really like my Lightning and plan to be prepared to pay for a replacement battery pack if that appears to be the best choice for me at the time. How do you feel, do you feel the Lightning are worth keeping on road for as long as you can get and afford parts for them or are you prepared to abandon your Lightning once the pack starts to fail or significantly degrade?

I have more important things to worry about than such a low probability event.

 

[TwentyTwentyThree]

Except I know of no Lightning that has needed an entirely new pack. Modules are much cheaper.

I think you missed my point entirely. However, yes, I concur.

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