Lightning production plant being paused due to aluminum plant fire 😕

[Tradewind]

I read through all the clickbait articles and the Times articles. I'll sum it up here and add to what @Ford Motor Company said:

• The F-150 Lightning is a successful EV truck.
• The Novelis fire is the reason for the initial pause.
• The other F-150s and Super Duty trucks use less aluminum than the Lightning.
• The ICE and hybrid F-series trucks sell better than the Lightning (which we all know).
• Ford needs to recoup the losses from the EV line and the aluminum issues.
• The non-EV F-series trucks can pick up that slack until the Novelis plant is operational again.
• Novelis is sourcing aluminum from other places in the U.S. and abroad but not the same volume.
• Ford is helping Novelis rebuild the aluminum plant post-fire.

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[pullinggs]

I vote that we all start drinking more beer and we send them the empties... yes?

 

[luebri]

I read through all the clickbait articles and the Times articles. I'll sum it up here and add to what @Ford Motor Company said:

• The F-150 Lightning is a successful EV truck.
• The Novelis fire is the reason for the initial pause.
• The other F-150s and Super Duty trucks use less aluminum than the Lightning.
• The ICE and hybrid F-series trucks sell better than the Lightning (which we all know).
• Ford needs to recoup the losses from the EV line and the aluminum issues.
• The non-EV F-series trucks can pick up that slack until the Novelis plant is operational again.
• Novelis is sourcing aluminum from other places in the U.S. and abroad but not the same volume.
• Ford is helping Novelis rebuild the aluminum plant post-fire.

you missed the most important part. The margins are spectacular for the ICE & Hybrid F-Series. Not the case for Lightning.

 

[flabrent]

Here's an article that says Lightning production is over, not paused.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-end-production-failed-f-141523184.html

 

[Ford Motor Company]

Here's an article that says Lightning production is over, not paused.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-end-production-failed-f-141523184.html

And that article is AI unfactual slop (unlike me).

 

[Gimme_my_MME]

And that article is AI unfactual slop (unlike me).

 

[flabrent]

And that article is AI unfactual slop (unlike me).

Thank heaven.

 

[djwildstar]

Here's an article that says Lightning production is over, not paused.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-end-production-failed-f-141523184.html

This is from financial analyst Douglas McIntyre of 24/7 Wall Street.

Overall, I don't consider him a very credible source, and he is likely just pushing an anti-EV bias on his readers. To give you an idea of his credibility, a 2014 report found that roughly 84% of 24/7 Wall Street's predictions for brands that would disappear turned out to be incorrect. For example, in 2012 the same author listed the New York Times, Dell, AMD, and Bank of American as "doomed".

So overall, having Douglas McIntyre say that something has failed suggests that it will probably still be around for at least the next decade, maybe more.

Overall my analysis is that Ford is making a sensible business decision given a shortage of aluminum. The Lightning requires more aluminum than other F-series trucks, and has smaller margins. If you've got a limited amount available, it makes sense to stretch it across as many of the highest-margin vehicles as possible.

It also seems likely that Ford was close to pausing production anyway. Dealers don't want to have to carry too many 2025 models into 2026, so depending on inventory levels, it often makes sense to shut down production before the actual end of the year. This allows dealers to sell through the remaining 2025 models before production of the new model year starts up sometime in January.

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