Yesterday was a big win for EVs in the EV Revolution

[Texas Dan]

Do you feel the excitement? A small thing happened but this small thing will have a huge impact on EV adoption. This small thing that happened I have been saying should have happened ten years ago and because it didn’t happen EV progress has been constrained.

What happened? Tesla opened up the Superchargers to non-Teslas. This was not just one auto maker opening up their DCFC chargers to owners of other auto makes, this was the ENTIRE auto industry in the USA coming together to support a focused effort to promote EV charging infrastructure development.

And it’s not just access to a few DCFC chargers that we are seeing; the EV Army is advancing on all fronts of the EV Revolution. The number of EV models and the number of DCFC chargers are growing exponentially and with that we should see EV adoption grow in 2024, dare I say, to astounding levels. We still have a lot of long hard battles to fight but right now I believe the EV Army has the momentum and I expect 2024 to be a banner year for EVs in the EV Revolution.

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[Monkey]

Rivian gains access to the network as of today. They're going to be shipping adapters to everyone, I haven't paid attention to their process for that. Typical for Rivian, I'm sure it will happen s00n.

 

[F150ROD]

I hope it works out because if you piss off the man it could be no access in a matter of minutes

 

[kab]

Rivian gains access to the network as of today. They're going to be shipping adapters to everyone, I haven't paid attention to their process for that. Typical for Rivian, I'm sure it will happen s00n.

Rivian should open their Adventure Network of DC chargers before or at least at the same time as when they gain access to Tesla's Superchargers.
Them delaying opening up until the second half of 2024 just allows them to claim they have more charging options than Ford, etc. for several months.

 

[Mmiketa]

Rivian gains access to the network as of today. They're going to be shipping adapters to everyone, I haven't paid attention to their process for that. Typical for Rivian, I'm sure it will happen s00n.

Where did you see that? I found this tweet from Rivian that sometime in march they'll see chargers in the car and only after that will they start sending out adapters.

 

[djwildstar]

[...] the EV Army is advancing on all fronts of the EV Revolution.

Dramatic much? ;-)

Seriously though, I find it interesting:

In 2022, excitement about EVs was high, spurred in part by high gas prices (which make EVs seem more-economical) and low interest rates (which make higher-priced EVs more affordable).

In 2023, the excitement faded as gas prices dropped and interest rates rose. A lot of folks that had been looking at EVs to beat high gas prices decided they were fine keeping their gas-burner for a few more years. It didn't help that in 2022 Congress kneecapped the automakers' ability to sell luxury-priced EVs by setting a price cap for the tax credit (this was a definite win for the gas/oil lobby).

A lot of automakers dropped or scaled-back their EV plans, so there will be fewer EVs available from established carmakers -- and in particular, fewer low-priced EVs. A few of the EV-only startups may well fail (yes, Fisker, I'm looking at you), be acquired, or be folded into parent brands. Overall the number of people that are willing to buy a premium-priced vehicle to get an EV is limited, and we're overall running out of those folks. I think this will provide an opportunity for Chinese EV startups to access a lot of the demand for mid- to low-priced EVs.

So I think that 2024 will be an "oh, s**t" year for established automakers -- where they realize that they and their dealer networks have mis-read (likely deliberately, on the part of the dealers) a reluctance to buy high-priced vehicles as a reluctance to buy EVs.

This means that there will likely be a renewed interest in EVs towards the end of the year, but that means that we will likely have to wait until the 2026 or 2027 model year for a lot of the things that we were hoping for in the 2025 model year.

 

[luebri]

We still have a lot of long hard battles to fight...

I am not fighting any battles... I simply am driving the best vehicle for my needs.

That's it. I have no agenda.

 

[invertedspear]

in 2022 Congress kneecapped the automakers' ability to sell luxury-priced EVs by setting a price cap for the tax credit (this was a definite win for the gas/oil lobby).

I dunno about this. What it should do is incentivize auto makers to make cheaper "family car" EVs and quit subsidizing cars for the wealthy. More Pros, fewer Platinums. If the goal is to make EVs the highest percentage of new cars sold as possible, how else would you get manufacturers to quit focusing on the small, but high profit slice of the market and instead go for the commuter and family car market?

Can you elaborate on how this is a win for the oil and gas industry?

 

[djwildstar]

I dunno about this. What it should do is incentivize auto makers to make cheaper "family car" EVs and quit subsidizing cars for the wealthy. More Pros, fewer Platinums. If the goal is to make EVs the highest percentage of new cars sold as possible, how else would you get manufacturers to quit focusing on the small, but high profit slice of the market and instead go for the commuter and family car market?

Can you elaborate on how this is a win for the oil and gas industry?

It may yet incentivize carmakers to make less-expensive "family car" EVs, but it was clearly designed to inflict as much pain as possible until then. It typically takes a carmaker about 3 years to bring a new model to market, and supply chains are typically worked out years in advance. So if the legislation had a phased-in implementation over 2023-2026, yes -- that would be a clear signal that carmakers need to invest in sensibly-priced family cars with domestically-sourced batteries now so that they can continue qualifying for the EV tax credit in the future. Similarly the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards are set years before they go into effect, so that car makers can take steps to be in compliance.

However, the legislation as passed has near-immediate (4 to 8 month) implementation, imposing both price caps and battery sourcing requirements that are difficult to comply with. This is a clear indication that the change was intended to make it hard for carmakers to sell their existing in-production and near-term planned EVs. In general new technologies are introduced in the high-end vehicles and move down-market as the technologies improve. By limiting carmakers' ability to sell high-end EVs now, the hope is to delay the broader availability of EV technology in the future. So a win for the oil/gas industry by introducing a delay. And we have seen that it has worked as intended, with the traditional carmakers announcing EV cutbacks in response to reports of slumping sales. This tactic has even worked to get the Government to agree to push back EV adoption targets as an election-year concession.

You can see how Ford responded for the 2024 model year -- not only have they announced reduced production of the Lightning, with the exception of the heat pump, all of the changes from MY23 to MY24 reduce production costs substantially so that Ford can maintain their margins while selling as many vehicles as possible under the tax credit price cap. Compared to the 2023's, 2024 ER trucks lose the Charge Station Pro, drop the maximum AC charging rate by 40%, drop the nominal DC charge rate by 20%, and lose the active park assist feature. Plus the 3-year prepaid BlueCruise and 9.6kW Pro Power Onboard go from included to extra-cost options.

 

[Monkey]

Where did you see that? I found this tweet from Rivian that sometime in march they'll see chargers in the car and only after that will they start sending out adapters.

Looks like it was a blog post from a high-profile Rivian enthusiast in regards to Rivian's announcement yesterday. They seemed to have interpreted "beginning in March" as starting to day, the 1st. They have since amended their statement. I guess I just assumed they knew what they're talking about since I hadn't kept up on it that close.

 

[JRT]

A bit too much fan boy there. This changes hardly guarantee to fix infrastructure. Look at Tesla's network map, there are huge holes, and guess what those holes are not filled by other networks (I'm looking at Mississippi in particular). I'm not interested in political agendas or the ridiculous other garbage people tell you to believe. I like my truck for my use and I can afford it. Finally I'd hold back the mission accomplished too as nobody knows what is going to happen to Tesla chargers as the masses arrive from the Bolt infested EA stations of Wal-Mart parking lots.

 

[MickeyAO]

Have you guys looked at what is coming from China via Mexico? All of Detroit should be very concerned. I'll give you a little hint...BYD

 

[Maquis]

Have you guys looked at what is coming from China via Mexico? All of Detroit should be very concerned. I'll give you a little hint...BYD

Yep. Not “if”, but “when”!

 

[Grumpy2]

I think the public will demand it, once they are available. Similar to the invasion of the VW in the late 60's, cheap and reliable while Detroit wasn't.

 

[MickeyAO]

And let's not forget Vinfast (Vietnam) coming in for the higher end that BYD is not interested in yet. I expect both to be in the US market in 2025.

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