ZEV State Statistics (Why do NY and NJ get the most love from Ford?)

p52Ranch · Jul 1, 2022

I've been keeping track of the ZEV state statistics over in the order tracker but thought I would break this post out into it's own thread.

-Disclaimer, these statistics are based on the data shared in the F150 Lightning Forum Reservation and Order lists. I believe there is enough data for it to be statistically accurate but it is not a "scientific poll".

Here are the latest ZEV state statistics:
- ZEV states continue with about 30% of Lightning reservations which is in line with their percentage of US population (27%).
- ZEV states are being allocated over 52% of the Lightning Orders and Scheduled Builds.
- New York is the state that dislikes the Lightning the most. (Fewest Lightning reservations per capita (as shared in the reservation tracker)).
- New Jersey is in second place of the most Lightning truck hating state (reservations per capita).
- What does Ford do with NY and NJ? The few folks in New Jersey and New York who love trucks are rewarded by Ford with the highest probabilities of converting their Lightning reservation into a 2022 Lightning in their driveway.
- It would seem that based on the F150 Lightning Forum data that all NY and NJ reservations could be fulfilled early in 2023. Would NY and NJ dealers start receiving stock Lightnings while other reservation holders are still waiting for a wave order?
- Vermont is the highest Lightning Truck Loving state (just edging out Oregon) with reservation percentages two and a half times their populations (all states).

Moral of the story. If you really want a Lightning, move to New Jersey but be warned you may end up turning into a truck hater....

ZEV State	Population %	Reservations	Reservation %	Wave Orders	Order %	Scheduled	Sched %	Order % US Pop%	Order % to Res %
CA	11.80%	238	15.82%	102	21.56%	59	22.78%	182.7%	136.3%
CT	1.06%	15	1.00%	11	2.33%	6	2.32%	219.4%	233.2%
MA	2.06%	30	1.99%	20	4.23%	11	4.25%	205.3%	212.0%
MD	1.81%	34	2.26%	18	3.81%	9	3.47%	210.2%	168.3%
ME	0.40%	7	0.47%	6	1.27%	4	1.54%	317.1%	272.5%
NJ	2.64%	26	1.73%	30	6.34%	18	6.95%	240.2%	366.9%
NY	5.72%	47	3.13%	40	8.46%	20	7.72%	147.8%	270.6%
OR	1.29%	45	2.99%	12	2.54%	5	1.93%	196.7%	84.8%
RI	0.32%	5	0.33%	4	0.85%	2	0.77%	264.3%	254.4%
VT	0.19%	7	0.47%	5	1.06%	2	0.77%	556.4%	227.1%
US Total		1504		473		259
ZEV State	27.29%	454	30.19%	248	52.43%	136	52.51%

p52Ranch · Jul 1, 2022

Data for Canada. Percentages are based on the total Lightings for both the US and Canada.

Province	Reservations	Resv. %	Orders	Order%	Scheduled	Sched%
Canada - Alberta	4	0.25%	3	0.58%	2	0.72%
Canada - British Columbia	19	1.20%	7	1.36%	4	1.43%
Canada - Manitoba	3	0.19%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
Canada - Newfoundland and Labrador	2	0.13%	1	0.19%	0	0.00%
Canada - Nova Scotia	3	0.19%	1	0.19%	1	0.36%
Canada - Ontario	27	1.71%	22	4.29%	11	3.94%
Canada - Quebec	15	0.95%	5	0.97%	2	0.72%
Canada - Saskatchewan	0	0.00%	1	0.19%	0	0.00%

p52Ranch · Jul 1, 2022

All US States Data. *There are not any entries identified as the District of Columbia in Reservations or Orders. There are a number of states with very few entries so it is difficult to interpret statistically significant percentages but here they are.

State	US Pop %	Lightning Love%	Reservations	Resv. %	Wave Orders	Order %	Scheduled	Sched %
AK	0.21%	63.3%	2	0.13%	1	0.21%	1	0.39%
AL	1.47%	63.3%	14	0.93%	3	0.63%	3	1.16%
AR	0.91%	7.3%	1	0.07%	2	0.42%	2	0.77%
AZ	2.27%	114.2%	39	2.59%	7	1.48%	3	1.16%
CA	11.80%	134.1%	238	15.82%	102	21.56%	59	22.78%
CO	1.77%	195.3%	52	3.46%	11	2.33%	5	1.93%
CT	1.06%	94.1%	15	1.00%	11	2.33%	6	2.32%
DE	0.30%	133.0%	6	0.40%	2	0.42%	0	0.00%
FL	6.60%	106.8%	106	7.05%	20	4.23%	7	2.70%
GA	3.25%	75.7%	37	2.46%	6	1.27%	3	1.16%
HI	0.42%	79.2%	5	0.33%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
IA	0.94%	148.5%	21	1.40%	5	1.06%	2	0.77%
ID	0.56%	71.2%	6	0.40%	3	0.63%	1	0.39%
IL	3.72%	67.9%	38	2.53%	9	1.90%	5	1.93%
IN	2.04%	65.2%	20	1.33%	5	1.06%	2	0.77%
KS	0.87%	114.6%	15	1.00%	3	0.63%	2	0.77%
KY	1.34%	34.7%	7	0.47%	5	1.06%	4	1.54%
LA	1.37%	72.8%	15	1.00%	7	1.48%	3	1.16%
MA	2.06%	96.8%	30	1.99%	20	4.23%	11	4.25%
MD	1.81%	124.9%	34	2.26%	18	3.81%	9	3.47%
ME	0.40%	116.4%	7	0.47%	6	1.27%	4	1.54%
MI	2.97%	98.5%	44	2.93%	10	2.11%	7	2.70%
MN	1.71%	85.5%	22	1.46%	6	1.27%	5	1.93%
MO	1.84%	57.8%	16	1.06%	5	1.06%	4	1.54%
MS	0.88%	30.2%	4	0.27%	1	0.21%	0	0.00%
MT	0.33%	60.4%	3	0.20%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
NC	3.22%	72.3%	35	2.33%	9	1.90%	3	1.16%
ND	0.23%	0.0%	0	0.00%	1	0.21%	0	0.00%
NE	0.58%	137.6%	12	0.80%	2	0.42%	1	0.39%
NH	0.41%	210.8%	13	0.86%	4	0.85%	2	0.77%
NJ	2.64%	65.5%	26	1.73%	30	6.34%	18	6.95%
NM	0.63%	84.4%	8	0.53%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
NV	0.96%	145.4%	21	1.40%	2	0.42%	2	0.77%
NY	5.72%	54.6%	47	3.13%	40	8.46%	20	7.72%
OH	3.49%	74.3%	39	2.59%	11	2.33%	6	2.32%
OK	1.19%	67.0%	12	0.80%	4	0.85%	2	0.77%
OR	1.29%	231.9%	45	2.99%	12	2.54%	5	1.93%
PA	3.81%	83.8%	48	3.19%	8	1.69%	6	2.32%
RI	0.32%	103.9%	5	0.33%	4	0.85%	2	0.77%
SC	1.59%	92.0%	22	1.46%	2	0.42%	1	0.39%
SD	0.27%	98.5%	4	0.27%	1	0.21%	0	0.00%
TN	2.08%	92.7%	29	1.93%	9	1.90%	8	3.09%
TX	8.96%	116.5%	157	10.44%	37	7.82%	22	8.49%
UT	1.00%	179.5%	27	1.80%	3	0.63%	1	0.39%
VA	2.57%	93.1%	36	2.39%	7	1.48%	2	0.77%
VT	0.19%	245.0%	7	0.47%	5	1.06%	2	0.77%
WA	2.35%	243.3%	86	5.72%	10	2.11%	7	2.70%
WI	1.75%	79.8%	21	1.40%	4	0.85%	1	0.39%
WV	0.52%	76.7%	6	0.40%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
WY	0.17%	39.1%	1	0.07%	0	0.00%	0	0.00%
Total			1504		473		259
ZEV States	27.29%	110.6%	454	30.19%	248	52.43%	136	52.51%

V8BoatBuilder · Jul 1, 2022

Demand for EVs is higher in ZEV states. Early adoption of EVs is higher in ZEV states. Charging infrastructure is better. More EV certified Ford dealers. Better government incentives to purchase EVs.

Business rule #1 - go where the demand is, and where there are fewer barriers to positive owner experience.

Great statistics, thanks for putting together and sharing!

LightningShow · Jul 1, 2022

I think it’s more that a truck isn’t practical in NYC and very densely populated areas so that eliminates a large chunk of people. I bet if you look in the suburban and rural areas of NY/NJ the per capita orders is similar to other places.

Firestop · Jul 1, 2022

V8BoatBuilder said:
Demand for EVs is higher in ZEV states. Early adoption of EVs is higher in ZEV states. Charging infrastructure is better. More EV certified Ford dealers. Better government incentives to purchase EVs.

Business rule #1 - go where the demand is, and where there are fewer barriers to positive owner experience.

Great statistics, thanks for putting together and sharing!

Another potential influence on demand to purchase within a specific State could be available State rebates. Oregon currently provides a $2,500 rebate at purchase for qualifying EVs, and additional $2,500 rebate for low-moderate income purchasers (probably not many Lightning owners).

p52Ranch · Jul 1, 2022

LightningShow said:
I think it’s more that a truck isn’t practical in NYC and very densely populated areas so that eliminates a large chunk of people. I bet if you look in the suburban and rural areas of NY/NJ the per capita orders is similar to other places.

Very good points. That got me to thinking that perhaps Ford has allocated 2022 Lightnings to ZEV states based on the states population%

I did another comparison of the Order percentage to the Population percentage for all states. Here are the results for the ZEV states. The weighted average is just under 200%. When we look at NY the percentages to the total population of NY is actually below the ZEV state average. NJ is still above average and remains the best state to have a reservation pending.

States like Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont have a low enough number of orders that a couple of orders will skew the percentages significantly.

State	US Pop %	Order %	Order% to US Pop%
CA	11.80%	21.56%	182.75%
CT	1.06%	2.33%	219.39%
MA	2.06%	4.23%	205.26%
MD	1.81%	3.81%	210.25%
ME	0.40%	1.27%	317.12%
NJ	2.64%	6.34%	240.25%
NY	5.72%	8.46%	147.84%
OR	1.29%	2.54%	196.67%
RI	0.32%	0.85%	264.27%
VT	0.19%	1.06%	556.36%

biers · Jul 1, 2022

As a 5/19 first hour reservation holder (with no invite to order) in a ZEV state (WA) who is at best #10 of >400 reservations at my WA dealer, I have come the to position that there is no rhyme or reason to Fords allocation process. I did get to test drive the demo unit at my dealer two weeks ago when the sales guy told me there were only two MY22 lightnings filled.

Yellow Buddy · Jul 2, 2022

Firestop said:
Another potential influence on demand to purchase within a specific State could be available State rebates. Oregon currently provides a $2,500 rebate at purchase for qualifying EVs, and additional $2,500 rebate for low-moderate income purchasers (probably not many Lightning owners).

Also average income in the area may also be a factor.

Ford is delivering their more expensive versions first, I’d be interested to see the order percentage against the median incomes in the state. It’s very possible folks have passed on the more expensive Lariat and Platinum trims that sit at 2x the average price of a new vehicle.

To add to that, the quoted is also a huge factor. A $90,000 EV truck gets nearly double the EV tax credit in some states. States like NJ don’t have a direct rebate, but offers EVs at no tax. That’s an additional 7% savings off the MSRP, which further reinforces the above. That discount gives a higher chance/take rate of a higher profit model.

RickLightning · Jul 2, 2022

Why Do Automakers Send Most Electric Vehicles To ZEV States?
Automakers are no different than any other manufacturer. They want the products they market to succeed and sell not just well, but at high profit and with ease. Among the fifty US states, one-quarter of the registered electric vehicles are in California according to researchers at iSeeCars.com. Twenty-five states round down to zero percent of the EV market.

Obviously, automakers are going to send their inventory to states where buyers have shown a strong buying record for such vehicles. But that isn’t the only consideration. Automakers need to comply with certain mandates in the ZEV states. Basically, minimums established for certain numbers and types of green vehicles. They will comply by sending the vehicles those states require.

A third reason is profit. If states like California and Massachusetts have legislatures elected by voters willing to subsidize buyers of electric vehicles, it is that much easier to sell the electric vehicles at MSRP or higher. Why not cash in on that?

Electric vehicles are somewhat different from conventionally-powered vehicles, and the dealerships' workers that sell and service EVs need training. It makes no sense to train all dealers equally if the inventory is limited to a couple of thousand units per month due to production and supply chain constraints. By limiting the locations at which the new vehicles are sold, manufacturers save time and money on dealer support and education programs where EVs are unpopular or not mandated by local governments.

Last, ZEV states tend to have more active EV communities with more incentives for the folks who build and maintain public chargers. More EVs mean the chargers have more customers, which means the charger companies fill their needs for profits and users. More chargers mean a happier user experience for EV owners.

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/her...-their-new-electric-vehicles-zev-states-first

metroshot · Jul 2, 2022

biers said:
As a 5/19 first hour reservation holder (with no invite to order) in a ZEV state (WA) who is at best #10 of >400 reservations at my WA dealer, I have come the to position that there is no rhyme or reason to Fords allocation process. I did get to test drive the demo unit at my dealer two weeks ago when the sales guy told me there were only two MY22 lightnings filled.

Then your dealer must have received fewer allocations.

My local CA dealers all received between 2-5 MY'22 Lightning orders and charged ADM.

I had to spend a whole day on the phone during the launch day looking for a high volume, high special order dealer and found one 2 counties away that also did not charge ADM. They had over 700 reservations and received 50 allocations. I was day #2 reservation after 50,000 others had reserved ahead of me but I got invited to order. Worth the drive passing 5 Ford dealers along the way to get an order invite 2 counties away.

It's all about dealer allocations.

RickLightning · Jul 2, 2022

Dealer allocation allocations and ZEV states have led to many being very disillusioned. Not in a ZEV state, and I ordered 11.5 hours in, and nada.

Yellow Buddy · Jul 2, 2022

RickLightning said:
Dealer allocation allocations and ZEV states have led to many being very disillusioned. Not in a ZEV state, and I ordered 11.5 hours in, and nada.

11.5 hours in isn’t that early depending on your dealer and dealer allocations certainly matter.

2 dealers near me, 30 minutes apart from each other, same state. Same county. One received only 2 allocations and blew past that “by the next morning”. The demand they saw “was surprising.

The other said it was “slow at first” and I was the only reservation “for a while” even by the time I ordered in January they said they hadn’t gotten as many reservations as they would have thought…yet they just delivered their 2nd and I know I’m scheduled for July.

That means at later dealer someone who didn’t reserve day 1 has received their truck while at the former, many day 1 reservations will end up as 2023.

RickLightning · Jul 2, 2022

Yellow Buddy said:
11.5 hours in isn’t that early depending on your dealer and dealer allocations certainly matter.

The public doesn't care about nor understand allocations.

p52Ranch · Jul 2, 2022

biers said:
As a 5/19 first hour reservation holder (with no invite to order) in a ZEV state (WA) who is at best #10 of >400 reservations at my WA dealer, I have come the to position that there is no rhyme or reason to Fords allocation process. I did get to test drive the demo unit at my dealer two weeks ago when the sales guy told me there were only two MY22 lightnings filled.

I don’t understand the nuances between the different ZEV states. I have been maintaining a list of 10 ZEV states but depending on where you look there are 14 states. The 10 I have in my list plus CO, DE, PA and WA.
I don’t know if there are any manufacturers incentives in WA yet for ZEV sales.

ZEV State Statistics (Why do NY and NJ get the most love from Ford?)

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