Could we expect price drop soon?

[kbuicker]

So many of these dealers just don't know what they have, or just don't want to embrace the EV. They have one on their lot because Ford made them buy it. True enough they also see it eating into their ability to control the narrative and screw the customer just as hard as they have over the years.

You just have to know the right dealer . I was going to trade up to a Platinum, but it was just too much over the price of my Lariat. Even without a markup. Not worth it to me.

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[TheBigBezo]

Ford's earnings report is coming out this afternoon. Honestly, this may tell us a lot. The Barrons article is pay walled, but if Mach-E and Lightning Sales numbers are down, or orders are being declined, then we'll get an idea if prices will drop. I know that I spoke to my dealer in passing, they mentioned selling 7 Lightnings, and 1 mannequin. The SR Lariat mannequin took some time according the finance rep, and they replaced it with an AMB Lariat ER that was abandoned which had not sold. They said the number 1 reason was because with taxes, a Lariat ER cost $93,000 which is beyond what most are willing to pay. I really do wonder if maybe there's a point where expensive is too expensive, and Lightnings start going unsold simply because Ford prioritized Lariat ERs which post price raise (and no longer credit eligible) simply cost too much. It's so early at this point in the MY23 production to know for sure. I definitely think the MY22 price point enticed a lot of folks, myself included, I could accept MY23 pricing but I know that's not true for a lot of people. If MY23 numbers sag for the above reasons, maybe there's increased rebates or incentives, but even then I don't know how much it'll help long run. Lariats are expensive, there's no doubt about that.

 

[TheBigBezo]

Earnings are out, Ford missed their 4th Quarter pretty bad. Farley is saying they left 2 billion or so on the table due to poor execution. I'm not sure entirely what he meant by that, but it's a rough showing for Ford (and overall for 2022) especially since GM did very well in the 4th quarter.

From a write up prior to their earnings call, "On Thursday, ahead of earnings after the close, Ford said it grew new vehicle sales in the U.S. 2%, year over year, in January. The gains were led by F-Series trucks, Bronco SUVs and electric vehicles. Ford EV sales more than doubled last month, though they remain a small part of its total sales. In January, overall Ford sales fell 18.4% on a month-over-month basis. Ford's EV sales, including the Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, were down by nearly a third vs. December 2022."

More articles out now, Ford is saying chip and parts shortages led to a delay of 100,000 vehicles that could have been sold which dropped their profits last quarter. Based off their language, their costs right now are high, so in line with this thread, I wouldn't be optimistic prices come down because it seems Ford themselves can't get them down internally.

 

[GDN]

Earnings are out, Ford missed their 4th Quarter pretty bad. Farley is saying they left 2 billion or so on the table due to poor execution. I'm not sure entirely what he meant by that, but it's a rough showing for Ford (and overall for 2022) especially since GM did very well in the 4th quarter.

From a write up prior to their earnings call, "On Thursday, ahead of earnings after the close, Ford said it grew new vehicle sales in the U.S. 2%, year over year, in January. The gains were led by F-Series trucks, Bronco SUVs and electric vehicles. Ford EV sales more than doubled last month, though they remain a small part of its total sales. In January, overall Ford sales fell 18.4% on a month-over-month basis. Ford's EV sales, including the Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, were down by nearly a third vs. December 2022."

More articles out now, Ford is saying chip and parts shortages led to a delay of 100,000 vehicles that could have been sold which dropped their profits last quarter. Based off their language, their costs right now are high, so in line with this thread, I wouldn't be optimistic prices come down because it seems Ford themselves can't get them down internally.

Thanks for the follow up and synopsis. Seems they want that EV leadership - these trucks can't be much more expensive to build than the ICE. If so they must have let SK bend them over on the batteries. They have to get the truck prices back down or they can kiss that part good bye. There is no reason that a Lariat ER is more than $80K. Other than the motors and battery every component has likely been used for many years. they are commodity parts. Very simple chips and cameras. They've just not managed their supply chain and they got very fat and happy with the bloated prices they charge for trucks.

 

[metroshot]

New report says Mach-E sales dropped 45%

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/ford-electric-vehicle-sales-mach-e-lightning-51675354609

Not surprising at all!

My MME is in Mexico after being built in December 2022 - that's all on Ford's plate...

Ford needs to get me my MME to me after 10 months!

 

[Pioneer74]

Earnings are out, Ford missed their 4th Quarter pretty bad. Farley is saying they left 2 billion or so on the table due to poor execution. I'm not sure entirely what he meant by that, but it's a rough showing for Ford (and overall for 2022) especially since GM did very well in the 4th quarter.

Looking back at my personal calendar for days I work over the year, not including one-off days that we shut down early, there were 5 weeks earlier in the year that we didn't run production at DTE or the REVC. There were equal, if not greater weeks, that Michigan Assembly, Kentucky Truck and KCAP couldn't run. That is where I believe he was referring to leaving profit on the table.

Other automakers, like GM, figured out ways to produce vehicles and get them to customers. Ford was slow to adapt. Instead of producing vehicles that could be delivered and upgraded later, we shut our plants down or produced incomplete vehicles and them rot in fields and parking lots.

 

[luebri]

Relative to previous discussion in this thread regarding "Gen 2 Lightning" driving down prices. See Farley comments below. Nothing about dropping prices. All about increasing margin which is what they desperately need to do based on their recent earnings reports.

Farley is going to be on the hot seat if he doesnt get his costs in line and margins up. Being #2 in EV's sold in the US has done very little to help the stock value.

I will concede, If they pull off lower costs in Gen 2... it could give them some wiggle room if they do get into a price war. Which is only If others full size truck EV's ever get to market.

That said, with an inflation rate of 8% and the Gen 2 truck likely not being on the market for 2 years at best, those of you crossing your fingers for lower price trucks should probably just be happy if they increase less than the 8% inflation rate.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/03/ford-ceo-jim-farley-frustrated-after-bad-earnings.html


"Will this new push to cut costs hurt Ford’s growth in production and sales of electric vehicles? Farley said no.

In fact, he said he believes separating the EV and internal combustion engine vehicle operations into two distinct divisions will actually accelerate efforts to drive greater efficiency. To prove his point, Farley says Ford’s second generation of EVs will be radically simplified, which should eventually lead to fewer problems and higher margins.

“I can’t wait to show you and the whole world this next cycle of products,” he said. “Many of our competitors are just coming out with their first cycle and we can see their batteries are too big. Their distribution costs are too expensive. They’re spending too much money on advertising. You know, we can’t do that. We don’t plan on doing that.”"

 

[jimfigler]

All these posts focus on the admittedly extreme price point of the Lariat/Platinum. I'm certainly not defending the prices, but no one has mentioned the costs for a similarly outfitted ICE F-150.

I've built an ICE 150 with similar options and features that I'd want in comparison to the Lightning. The MSRP is about $10K lower, which for me is a trade-off I'm willing to make to have an EV version and (hopefully) lower maintenance costs over time.

Seems to be a lot more than $10k at least when comparing the $96k Platinum, closer to $20k difference. Anyone who bought a 2023 Platinum better hold on to it for many years or be ready to take your lumps.

 

[F150ROD]

I might change my mind. Maybe there will be a price drop with incentives

 

[Pioneer74]

I might change my mind. Maybe there will be a price drop with incentives

One point he had is wrong. There are many examples online of dealers ambushing customers that ordered their vehicles with markups when they went to purchase.

 

[Roy2001]

NOT what Chevy is saying - they still say the work trucks are coming first, last time I checked.

See re release work trucks first: https://www.autoweek.com/news/indus...riced-right-wont-follow-tesla-ford-msrp-cuts/

"The Chevrolet Silverado EV work truck is set to launch in the first half of this year..."

And pricing:

Look for the first models in spring of 2023 starting at $39,900.

While a number of configurations will ultimately be possible, the first Silverado EVs will come in two models: RST (Rally Sport Truck) and WT (Work Truck).

If that last item (RST $105k) caused you to rock back on your heels, the Work Truck trim level of the Silverado EV will sacrifice some performance for a much lower sticker, starting at $39,900, GM says. It’ll make do with “only” 510 hp, 615 lb-ft, 8000 pounds of towing capacity and 1200 pounds of payload. That still sounds pretty good. A 20,000-pound towing capacity is promised for later.

In something of a flip of usual model launches, Chevy says the first model available will be the WT in spring of 2023 with the full 400 miles of range, though it did not list a price for that model. The RST First Edition arrives in fall 2023, also with a 400-mile range, for $105,000, followed by the $39,900 Work Truck.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a38670675/2024-chevy-silverado-ev-reveal/

The 2024 Chevrolet Silverado EV WT3 will start at $72,905, whereas the WT4 variant has a base price of $77,905, including a destination freight charge (DFC) of $1,895.

 

[chl]

Like I've been thinking, as production ramps up, competition will get fierce and prices will have to drop, and apparently Ford is not clueless about this coming change.

----
Ford CEO Jim Farley sees the automotive industry “headed to a huge price war,” with the idea of “democratized EVs” coming soon.

The comments were made within a conversation with analyst Toni Sacconaghi, as part of Bernstein's 38th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference held earlier this week.

In it, Farley took a few positions that are likely to give some of the Detroit establishment heartburn—like how the auto industry is about to be rattled by price pressures, a shakeout that could favor China, and a potentially abrupt consolidation of vehicle makers....

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1136061_ford-ceo-ev-price-war-china-industry-consolidation

----

If the Fed continues raising interest rates, as seems even more likely now with the huge jobs report yesterday (over 500k) buying new and used cars will be more expensive in loan terms for consumers, and while the over-all economy may not actually go into a recession, certain areas of the economy probably will, such as car sales due to high borrowing costs. That will be more pressure on Ford and others to lower prices.

It seems inevitable unless there is some big unforeseen change in the way things are shaking out.

I think 2024 will be a good time/model year to wait for, whether it is a Lightning, a Silverado, a Cybertruck or any others.

Anybody who can sell me a $40k or thereabouts EV pickup truck gets my business in 2024.

 

[chl]

From that same interview, Farley says:
-----
"...We’ll also see more optimization for aerodynamics. A full-size pickup truck optimized for aero, versus an F-150 Lightning, means 75 miles in additional range, Farley seemed to suggest, adding that “it’s kind of too bad that the Lightning ends up being our most successful vehicle today because it feels so derivative from the F-Series."

“It’s not our only truck and the other trucks won’t look anything like it,” he added—perhaps referring to the full-size electric truck for “incredibly high volume” due in a few years. ...

-----
Duh!
Even more reason to hold off buying a box with wheels pushing air down the highway.
Ford must be seeing and learning from what Tesla and Aptera have achieved in better range with a more aerodynamic design.

Vehicles need to change shape to be more like airplanes and reduce drag.
When gas was cheap, and that big ICE needed an upfront radiator with lots of air flow, a big box shape worked, although wasteful of resources.

What took automakers so long?

Was it being on the brink of the end of human civilization from carbon pollution got their attention?

No, more likely it was the threat of Tesla and China taking US market share away from ICE's with EV's.

Fear and greed.

Greed sometimes leads to rational decisions...eventually.

Ford screwed up not delivering on their $39k MSRP Lightning promise and expecting us to buy $80k and up models - greed gone wrong. As the price goes up, the demand goes down.

Maybe Ford will follow through with the things Farley suggests in this interview....I am skeptical - it is a major change of direction for a less than nimble corporation...but if they can't, they may go the way of the Edsel, so they should be motivated by survival instincts as the market changes.

It wouldn't be the first time the US auto makers got caught off guard.

 

[luebri]

From that same interview, Farley says:
-----
"...We’ll also see more optimization for aerodynamics. A full-size pickup truck optimized for aero, versus an F-150 Lightning, means 75 miles in additional range, Farley seemed to suggest, adding that “it’s kind of too bad that the Lightning ends up being our most successful vehicle today because it feels so derivative from the F-Series."

“It’s not our only truck and the other trucks won’t look anything like it,” he added—perhaps referring to the full-size electric truck for “incredibly high volume” due in a few years. ...

-----
Duh!
Even more reason to hold off buying a box with wheels pushing air down the highway.
Ford must be seeing and learning from what Tesla and Aptera have achieved in better range with a more aerodynamic design.

Vehicles need to change shape to be more like airplanes and reduce drag.
When gas was cheap, and that big ICE needed an upfront radiator with lots of air flow, a big box shape worked, although wasteful of resources.

What took automakers so long?

Was it being on the brink of the end of human civilization from carbon pollution got their attention?

No, more likely it was the threat of Tesla and China taking US market share away from ICE's with EV's.

Fear and greed.

Greed sometimes leads to rational decisions...eventually.

Ford screwed up not delivering on their $39k MSRP Lightning promise and expecting us to buy $80k and up models - greed gone wrong. As the price goes up, the demand goes down.

Maybe Ford will follow through with the things Farley suggests in this interview....I am skeptical - it is a major change of direction for a less than nimble corporation...but if they can't, they may go the way of the Edsel, so they should be motivated by survival instincts as the market changes.

It wouldn't be the first time the US auto makers got caught off guard.

I dont disagree with most your points. Ford definitely needs to evolve, and it sounds like they are trying to. To Farley's point, they were first out with Gen 1 Full size truck and now they are ahead of the pack for working on Gen 2. Can they execute and do so profitably? who knows? Being critical of the Lightning is kind of silly. It got to market and is a wonderful product by the majority of accounts from owners and reviewers. Im sorry you can not justify the cost. I dont disagree, it is expensive. I respect your desire to have a more affordable truck and I hope for your sake it happens. That does not mean the Lightning is a bad product or Ford is full of greedy a**holes.

I do disagree with the automatic leap you make that if a company attempts to make money that they are greedy. Some of them are you know... just trying to do their job. It is a publicly traded company, they are legally bound to try and do what is in the best of interest of the stock holder.

I can guarantee you one thing. Selling more $39k Lightnings was absolutely not going to help their already suffering profit margins.

 

[metroshot]

The 2024 Chevrolet Silverado EV WT3 will start at $72,905, whereas the WT4 variant has a base price of $77,905, including a destination freight charge (DFC) of $1,895.

I still have a first minute reservation for the Silverado EV WT for $39K.

Wish I had a fleet account to get one this spring.

Consumer / retail ordering starts this summer for fall/winter deliveries.

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