How many total prioritizations?

[Tyler Durden]

I'm wondering if there's any way to get a reasonable guess about total system-wide prioritizations submitted to Ford. Probably not, but perhaps we can WAG out a rough scale of the issue. All of the following is 100% unsubstantiated math-turbation, it says nothing about the effect of dealer allocations, fleet orders, mannequins, dropped or deferred orders, balance of available trims/options, etc., etc....

So, we know ~ # of EV-certified dealers, we know the rules on # prioritizations per dealer based on # of reservations, here goes:

dealers who even bothered to submit a priority list: 60%
...
dealers with less than 50 res's: 50%
dealers with 50 to 99 res's: 35%
dealers with 100 or more res's: 15%
...
system-wide, total prioritizations submitted versus available: 80%. IOW, I imagine that not every dealer who submitted a list used all of their available prioritizations. (e.g. perhaps a dealer with 10 available only submitted 5).

So doing all that, and rounding to an even number, I get about 11,000 total prioritizations.

Again, these numbers are based on absolutely nothing, and summoned from the mind of this annoyed un-prioritized early timestamp holder.

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[personalt]

i don't follow all your math but i think that idea that Ford didn't get much past prioritized orders is likely true.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Here's the math (Matlab). Again, based on nothing but boredom / frustration.

% Total EV-certified dealers: 2300

aa=2300*.6 % dealers that submitted a priority list
bb=aa*.50 % dealers with < 50 reservations, who submitted
cc=aa*.35 % dealers with 50 < rservations < 100, who submitted
dd=aa*.15 % dealers with reservations => 100, who submitted

ee = bb * 5 % (small) dealer prioritizations
ff = cc * 10 % (medium) dealer prioritizations
gg = dd * 25 % (large) dealer prioritizations

hh=(ee+ff+gg)*.8 % add them all together, reduce by 20%

 

[p52Ranch]

When prioritizations were announced I was surprised at the number that Ford was permitting. It was possible that if every dealer did prioritizations, it would consume the entire 2022 production with priority orders.

My gut feeling is your calculation is high on priority orders. My dealer would be in your 40% group of not doing prioritizations. I can only speculate as to why they didn't do any. But here are some guesses:
1) They didn't understand the details of prioritization and just didn't bother.
2) They didn't have any "high priority" customers who were slow to reserve a lightning begging for a 2022 truck. Most customers wouldn't have known to ask for priority (unless you were on f150gen14.com).
3) Maybe the most important one, they didn't realize how few Lightnings will be produced in 2022 and then research their list of customer reservations to proactively pick out those "high priority customers".

 

[Tyler Durden]

My gut feeling is your calculation is high on priority orders.

I do want you to be right about that.

By estimating prioritizations, I think I convinced myself that that if you're someone that reserved at a dealer that submitted a priority list, and you're not on it, you have basically no chance at a MY22.

edit: and you stay at your selected dealer, not attempting various timestamp arbitrage strategies being discussed in these forums.

 

[RickLightning]

By estimating prioritizations, I think I convinced myself that that if you're someone that reserved at a dealer that submitted a priority list, and you're not on it, you have basically no chance at a MY22.

I think that's right on the money.

My dealer is getting 9 MY 22s. He has over 270 on his reservation list. I cannot believe he didn't give priority to more than 9.

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