How many more months for day 1 reservation holders?

[ivan256]

n = 519 is a statistically significant sample.

But it's not a random sample.

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[TaxmanHog]

But it's not a random sample.

True, this is not scientific study since I do not having direct access to the world of data from the FoMoCo to do a formal randomized selection, what I do have is a group of enthusiastic volunteers, of which some are self reporting measure points in vs. me pulling the data with VIN's so there's that too, still we can see the overall movement of production including hiccups and stalls which are themselves random and unpredictable events.

 

[trev5150]

But it's not a random sample.

disagree.
of the people that intend to buy lightnings, have to find this board. Random.
of those that found this board, have to create an account. Random.
of those that create an account, have to see the thread about the database, random.
of those that see the database thread, actually participate in it, random. The list downselects from 200,000 potential truck buyers to a very small, very random sample, based on a series of random events.

 

[ivan256]

disagree.
of the people that intend to buy lightnings, have to find this board. Random.
of those that found this board, have to create an account. Random.
of those that create an account, have to see the thread about the database, random.
of those that see the database thread, actually participate in it, random. The list downselects from 200,000 potential truck buyers to a very small, very random sample, based on a series of random events.

That's not what random means. That is practically the definition of self-selection bias.

Which perfectly explains the demonstrable difference between the data in the sample and the overall pool.

 

[trev5150]

That's not what random means. That is practically the definition of self-selection bias.

Which perfectly explains the demonstrable difference between the data in the sample and the overall pool.

I KNEW YOU WERE GONNA SAY THAT. As a geneticist (my degree field), I thoroughly agree, but if I change modes and think like a psychologist, then it all makes sense

OR….

No psychology PhD is legit, not a one. 99% of their research is in the form of surveys, which makes every conclusion drawn tainted by self-selection bias.

 

[LightningShow]

But it's not a random sample.

haha, you beat me to it. It's highly self-selected but, like many statistical studies, you make use of what you have.

 

[LightningShow]

No psychology PhD is legit, not a one. 99% of their research is in the form of surveys, which makes every conclusion drawn tainted by self-selection bias.

Ever heard the term "replication crisis"? Look it up and you'll see that your comment isn't as far from the truth as you might think.

 

[trev5150]

Ever heard the term "replication crisis"? Look it up and you'll see that your comment isn't as far from the truth as you might think.

Yeah from undergrad to med school (didn’t finish) I’ve had more than a little exposure.

 

[trev5150]

haha, you beat me to it. It's highly self-selected but, like many statistical studies, you make use of what you have.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

 

[TaxmanHog]

“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

Some information is better than the chaos of no information, the feedback I have been getting over the past many months is that this tracking effort has helped many rationalize the ebbs and flows of production, with a few folks in full panic knowing they aren't following the trend.

 

[jpepper07]

We can derive alot of useful information from taxmanhogs work. It isn't random, those who reserved day 1 are the most enthusiastic so they sign up and track progress. However, it doesn't mean the data isn't useful.

That being said I am the only 5/24!

I believe I was the third one delivered to my dealer. They also have a demo. I think I started out around 5 or 6 in position. I'm sure the 2 people who got trucks ahead of me were prioritized as friends or family. Then I think others decided not to buy. Maybe because of no pro.

I got very lucky because I picked the right dealer. However, I hate my dealer. Added bs add-ons and refused to send a signed buyers order, if a bank they didn't know sends a check I would have had to wait for funds to clear. They don't communicate well and other things.

I got lucky cus I live In small area with people who prefer gas guzzlers. Tesla is rare around here. I bet they have around 40 reservations.

 

[WaitingInRaleigh]

it's a big bait and switch, like the Maverick Hybrid.

they're gonna get sued and it's going to be fun to watch

 

[theblunden]

it's a big bait and switch, like the Maverick Hybrid.

they're gonna get sued and it's going to be fun to watch

Yup that's not gonna happen for the Lightning and Maverick. Ford dropped the ball on the reservation system and letting dealers prioritize certain customers based on their amount of reservations.They only planned a certain amount of each trim and when there gone there gone. Sony is in for a landslide of lawsuits because they can't provide enough PS5's for everyone to get one

 

[WaitingInRaleigh]

Intentionally misleading advertising is illegal.

 

[workaholic]

another day 1 here. just got an email from ford telling me to get ready and that the pro was already sold out. decided to check in here, and yea. not looking good at this point. not happy at all.

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