Lightning production plant being paused due to aluminum plant fire 😕

[djwildstar]

I fear that if we abandon EVs as a country China will eat our lunch. [...] I fear we as a country are going back to the "good old 50's".

I think Ford's executive team is aware of the Chinese EV threat. My understanding is that Ford is the US carmaker with the largest international presence -- roughly a third of Ford's revenue is from non-US sales, and about 15% of all Fords assembled in the US are exported. I see a very clear possibility of a repeat of the "malaise era" starring Chinese EVs in the role of inexpensive, reliable, and efficient alternatives to US-made autos. So Ford either has to be able to design and build worthy EVs at competitive prices, or lose a significant chunk of revenue.

It is significant to me that Ford didn't need a bailout from the Troubled Asset Relief Program during the Great Recession (while GM and Chrysler did). This suggests responsible and forward-thinking management on the part of Ford. So even absent enforcement of the EPA clean-air/fuel-efficency standards, Ford will continue to design and build a variety of EVs. The main constraint will be how much money the stockholders (meaning Wall Street) will allow them to invest in EVs without tanking the stock price.

I do feel that there is definitely a bunch of 50's nostalgia going on -- but mostly by people who didn't really live through the 50's. So it is more like longing for the "good old days" as portrayed in popular media (think American Graffiti, Happy Days, Grease, etc ...) and described in stories from older people. So it's a nostalgia for a semi-mythical perfect time that never really was.

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[davehu]

I think Ford's executive team is aware of the Chinese EV threat. My understanding is that Ford is the US carmaker with the largest international presence -- roughly a third of Ford's revenue is from non-US sales, and about 15% of all Fords assembled in the US are exported. I see a very clear possibility of a repeat of the "malaise era" starring Chinese EVs in the role of inexpensive, reliable, and efficient alternatives to US-made autos. So Ford either has to be able to design and build worthy EVs at competitive prices, or lose a significant chunk of revenue.

It is significant to me that Ford didn't need a bailout from the Troubled Asset Relief Program during the Great Recession (while GM and Chrysler did). This suggests responsible and forward-thinking management on the part of Ford. So even absent enforcement of the EPA clean-air/fuel-efficency standards, Ford will continue to design and build a variety of EVs. The main constraint will be how much money the stockholders (meaning Wall Street) will allow them to invest in EVs without tanking the stock price.

I do feel that there is definitely a bunch of 50's nostalgia going on -- but mostly by people who didn't really live through the 50's. So it is more like longing for the "good old days" as portrayed in popular media (think American Graffiti, Happy Days, Grease, etc ...) and described in stories from older people. So it's a nostalgia for a semi-mythical perfect time that never really was.

Although Ford does very well internationally actually for 2024 US sales made up 50% of the total not 15%.

 

[djwildstar]

Although Ford does very well internationally actually for 2024 US sales made up 50% of the total not 15%.

You may want to re-read my post -- I didn't write what you think I wrote.

I said "15% of all Fords assembled in the US are exported". In other words, about 6 of every 7 (or roughly 85%) of Ford vehicles built in the US are sold in the US, while the rest -- about 1 in 7 or roughly 15% -- are sold to outside of the US. This is strictly about number of vehicles assembled in the US, not sales dollars or revenue.

I also said "Roughly a third of Ford's revenue is from non-US sales". In other words, about 67% of Ford's revenue is from the US, and about 33% from other countries. This is from BullFincher's analysis of their 2024 financials. I do not have sales breakdowns, but would believe that Ford makes higher margins on US sales than on non-US sales. The revenue breakdown is:

67.55% -- United States​

7.25% -- Canada​

5.37% -- United Kingdom​

1.42% -- Mexico​

18.40% -- all other geographic regions​

 

[WXman]

Yahoo! Finance published a poor article asserting that F-150 Lightning is done due to poor sales. My goodness....

"Ford will stop making its electric vehicle (EV) flagship, the F-150 Lightning. The New York Times reports this could be attributed to both the fire and flagging sales. In the first three quarters of the year, Lightning unit sales were up only 1% to 23,034. The extent to which Ford is entirely a gasoline-powered car company shows up in overall F-Series sales, which rose 12.7% to 620,580.

Ford’s management shows wisdom in shutting down Lightning production. The electric pickup never sold well, suggesting its launch was a terrible mistake. Additionally, the U.S. EV market is dying and will not bounce back soon. The $7,500 EV tax credit expired at the end of the third quarter. People who wanted an EV rushed to buy one before the deadline.

iSeeCars said that about 8% of new car sales were EVs in the first three-quarters of the year. It forecasts that the number will drop to 4% in the fourth quarter and stay that low throughout 2026."

 

[Ford Motor Company]

Yahoo! Finance published a poor article asserting that F-150 Lightning is done due to poor sales. My goodness....

"Ford will stop making its electric vehicle (EV) flagship, the F-150 Lightning. The New York Times reports this could be attributed to both the fire and flagging sales. In the first three quarters of the year, Lightning unit sales were up only 1% to 23,034. The extent to which Ford is entirely a gasoline-powered car company shows up in overall F-Series sales, which rose 12.7% to 620,580.

Ford’s management shows wisdom in shutting down Lightning production. The electric pickup never sold well, suggesting its launch was a terrible mistake. Additionally, the U.S. EV market is dying and will not bounce back soon. The $7,500 EV tax credit expired at the end of the third quarter. People who wanted an EV rushed to buy one before the deadline.

iSeeCars said that about 8% of new car sales were EVs in the first three-quarters of the year. It forecasts that the number will drop to 4% in the fourth quarter and stay that low throughout 2026."

Unfactual reporting.

 

[RLXXI]

Yahoo Finance, now there's a name you can trust for financial news. [/end sarcasm]

 

[doggod]

problem is environmentalist are preventing USA from mining, they would rather have other countries strip mining and using children as workers, than ethically producing in USA.
Tesla is only company that makes a profit selling EV's, they sell more EV's than all other EV's combined. so it appears to not be a demand issue, but a price issue, low information, and reporters who are paid with advertising dollars. I see reports that show ICE companies paid for the report, same as when tobacco and insecticide companies paid for reports.

 

[djwildstar]

problem is environmentalist are preventing USA from mining

The only commercially-viable aluminum ore is bauxite. Turning it into aluminum is relatively expensive, because the process requires a large amount of energy (about 15kWh per pound produced). Recycling existing aluminum requires much less energy (less than 1kWh per pound), so about 80% of US aluminum production is recycled.

The remaining roughly 20% of US production is new aluminum refined from imported bauxite. It must be imported because the United States has only about 1% of world bauxite reserves. The top 3 countries for bauxite are Guinea (about 25% of all known reserves), Australia (about 20%), and Brazil (about 10%). Most of the US reserves were used in the early- and mid-20th century, with WWI and WWII consuming significant amounts. US-mined bauxite has not been used for aluminum production since the 1980's, and what little is mined in the US is more-valuable for non-metallurgical purposes: producing corundum (an abrasive), cement, and paper. It is also used for water purification, and the oil and gas industry consumes quite a bit, because it is used for hydraulic fracturing (fracking).

The biggest reason not to increase US production is not environmental, but strategic. If the US increased production of bauxite to meet domestic consumption, the known reserves would be exhausted in a few decades. After that, US industry would be entirely dependent on imported bauxite and imported aluminum -- obviously a bad place to be. So it is far better to keep US bauxite as a strategic reserve for use in an emergency (such as an embargo or war), and meet current demands with imported ore.

 

[doggod]

reasons for not opening new bauxite mines in Virginia, Mississippi, Texas, and Oregon are environmental issues, competition from imports, low grade ore, or high costs. just grok it.

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