The Speculative Future of EVs?

[srspring551]

https://interestingengineering.com/videos/china-is-making-cars-weird

Kinda long but later parts are about what EVs could become...

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[Jseis]

Early auto development in the US was pretty custom… Just like China but 1/2 the time (or less) to put the pedal down. US auto development from 1910-1925 unbelievable.

Cars must be less costly to own and operate and China gets that whereas US auto manufacturers want full booty all the time and since overall wages have declined in spending power, no surprise the average American might struggle owning a 45K auto and forget about owning a house. The US is digging a deeper hole.

Horse and (horses) plus carriage equaled an auto with a straight 4 in front ok..16 of them. The rapidity of horse to car in the US was way faster than China growing from Bike to Batteries. But the street-highway infrastructure that China built was is unbelievable. And now they are tech leaders.

So novelty is a consumer thing and inexpensive novelty is a market thing. US auto makers have imagined the future but we don’t have 1+billion to drive it. China’s unilateral gov approach allowed for swift development and they are now innovation leaders. I recall reading about China’s decision to build 60 new engineering tech universities a few years ago because they needed minds to build their future.

Unlike the US driven by influencer BS. Our colleges and universities risk standing as hollowed out monuments.

The industries to watch are Ag, Delivery, Construction, Heavy Equipment, where power supplies run long hours/miles and cooler, more efficient, energy miser equipment is a huge advantage.

What if EVs eventually run 20+ years of age and battery upgrades are inexpensive because battery tech is improving rapidly? And China does not want to be wrapped around the axle of energy disruption…So they forge ahead to distance themselves from global energy disruption ….

As the cost of batteries falls, storage becomes less costly, density slowly rises. ICE headed for the glue factory. Maybe cars are an afterthought or dirt cheap or ?

 

[WXman]

The only things holding EV sales back are range and charging times/availability. As soon as technology gets to the point where EVs can be charged in 15 minutes or less on any street corner in America, they will start really going mainstream.

 

[Joe.....Montana]

The only things holding EV sales back are range and charging times/availability. As soon as technology gets to the point where EVs can be charged in 15 minutes or less on any street corner in America, they will start really going mainstream.

You don't necessarily need charging in 15 minutes or less on any street corner...you need charging 15 minutes or less at a sufficient number of interstate/highway stops for EV's to go mainstream.

 

[Altivec]

You don't necessarily need charging in 15 minutes or less on any street corner...you need charging 15 minutes or less at a sufficient number of interstate/highway stops for EV's to go mainstream.

And... If you can charge in 15 minutes or less at key spots during a long distance drive, then range isn't an issue either. A 15 minute stop every 300 miles is acceptable for most people. Of course range and range density will improve over the next few decades which is great but I don't think it's needed to go mainstream. The only issue is charge speed and rock solid charging stations (getting rid of the bad press that they are always broken down)

 

[Mach Turtle]

The only things holding EV sales back are range and charging times/availability. As soon as technology gets to the point where EVs can be charged in 15 minutes or less on any street corner in America, they will start really going mainstream.

These are important issues; however, there are more serious problems: Politics and fear of change. Tens of millions of North Americans who would be better off with today's EVs rather than gas suckers have been convinced to stay with gas. Most can't imagine charging at home ≥90% of the time and only getting energy at public stations during the occasional long road trip. Where would they have heard about such things?

Even when most EVs can be charged quickly in the rare* cases when that's needed, misinformation and disinformation will still keep people away until the truth is heard more often than FUD. Let's keep talking to our friends, spreading the word, and giving people rides.

* Rare for most people. Yes, there are folks who often drive long distances, for whom gas hybrids are a better call right now. Also, many people live in apartments with slumlords who won't install L2 chargers. These aren't the people to whom I refer.

 

[sotek2345]

And... If you can charge in 15 minutes or less at key spots during a long distance drive, then range isn't an issue either. A 15 minute stop every 300 miles is acceptable for most people. Of course range and range density will improve over the next few decades which is great but I don't think it's needed to go mainstream. The only issue is charge speed and rock solid charging stations (getting rid of the bad press that they are always broken down)

True, but there is a threshold to that range. If I have to do 15 minutes of charging every 60 miles that is no good either. My lightning usually ends up being 30 to 40 minutes every 200 miles or so (depending on fast charger location). So we are getting there, but not quite yet (except for a few makes/models)

 

[WXman]

And... If you can charge in 15 minutes or less at key spots during a long distance drive, then range isn't an issue either. A 15 minute stop every 300 miles is acceptable for most people. Of course range and range density will improve over the next few decades which is great but I don't think it's needed to go mainstream. The only issue is charge speed and rock solid charging stations (getting rid of the bad press that they are always broken down)

Well, if you're just commuting in a car 300 miles would be sufficient. But most EV cars can't go that far, can they?

And we are pickup truck guys, and as such we're usually hauling or towing. The only reason I have to drive on a long trip is if my family is going camping, in which case we'd have the trailer behind us. 80 to 100 miles of range means I'm stopping every hour. That's just not quite as good as I'd like.

These are important issues; however, there are more serious problems: Politics and fear of change. Tens of millions of North Americans who would be better off with today's EVs rather than gas suckers have been convinced to stay with gas. Most can't imagine charging at home ≥90% of the time and only getting energy at public stations during the occasional long road trip. Where would they have heard about such things?

Even when most EVs can be charged quickly in the rare* cases when that's needed, misinformation and disinformation will still keep people away until the truth is heard more often than FUD. Let's keep talking to our friends, spreading the word, and giving people rides.

* Rare for most people. Yes, there are folks who often drive long distances, for whom gas hybrids are a better call right now. Also, many people live in apartments with slumlords who won't install L2 chargers. These aren't the people to whom I refer.

Hmmm. .. that's a wide open can of worms there.

I tend to believe that Americans want to, and do, buy the vehicles they desire. Look at Stellantis. They had the #2 pickup in the nation, passing the Chevrolet brand for the first time in history. They had the #1 muscle car. They had the #1 SUVs. Their new (idiotic) CEO said "NO MORE V8 ENGINES!" and immediately their sales started to tank. Profit losses quarter after quarter until the guy finally resigned (he was probably strongly encouraged to resign) and now their new leadership is bringing back V8s in every vehicle they make to save the company.

We won't get into the environmental aspect, because lithium mines, battery production, electronic waste items, etc. are an absolute environmental nightmare. And the electricity that charges up our batteries comes from burning fossil fuels.

So, it's really hard to make the blanket statement that millions of Americans would be "better off with today's EVs". I don't tend to agree. I think OPTIONS are good. And as a guy who has used gas, diesel, and now electric trucks to do my work I see the pros and cons in all of them.

 

[Altivec]

Well, if you're just commuting in a car 300 miles would be sufficient. But most EV cars can't go that far, can they?

And we are pickup truck guys, and as such we're usually hauling or towing. The only reason I have to drive on a long trip is if my family is going camping, in which case we'd have the trailer behind us. 80 to 100 miles of range means I'm stopping every hour. That's just not quite as good as I'd like.

I am more so talking about the technology we have today (not any specific vehicle) and what's needed in the future for mass acceptance. There are some cars that can go 600+ miles so that technology is already here. The Silverado can go close to 500 miles (250 towing). I am not saying that more range is not needed or wanted. I would love to go 500 miles towing. Just saying, our current tech (not the 7 year old tech in our lightnings) has reached a point where I think range is "good enough" for mass adoption. If charging only took 5 minutes, I don't think we would be having this discussion. Everyone would be buying EV's. If you agree with that statement, that means the only thing holding up mass adoption is charge speeds.

 

[Firn]

We won't get into the environmental aspect, because lithium mines, battery production, electronic waste items, etc. are an absolute environmental nightmare. And the electricity that charges up our batteries comes from burning fossil fuels.

So, it's really hard to make the blanket statement that millions of Americans would be "better off with today's EVs". I don't tend to agree. I think OPTIONS are good. And as a guy who has used gas, diesel, and now electric trucks to do my work I see the pros and cons in all of them.

...sigh... except those environmental points you claim are fasle information regurgitate on social media.

Yes, there IS an impact, but because their is one, the false narative is that there is THE SAME impact, and thats not true.

Yes, lithium mining and environmental impact are terrible, and yet are SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than from gas, and are still less if scaled. The largest lithium mine makes enough lithium to provide for 90% of ev manufacturing, and yet it is one HUNDRED times smaller than the open pit mining for bitnum in Canada that provides less than 3% of the world's petroleum. Thirty TIMES less earth is moved yearly in that lithium mine than is moved in the oil sands. And that's before we get into the dozens of other impacts from oil.

No, the electricity used does not "come from fossil fuels". SOME comes from fossil fuels, just over half. And that HALF comes from energy systems with SIGNIFICANTLY higher efficiency than gas engines. And almost all of those use fuels that dont requiring burning one part for every four parts made.

And it is these kinds of false statements that are holding back adoption. Yes, MILLIONS of US drivers WOULD be better off. He in no way said most, the majority, or heaven forbid ALL. The point WAS that MANY would. That IS options.

And this is where I get critical. You yourself, an owner, just repeated false information and mistook a statement made and believed it was intended to imply forcing compliance. How many others who are not as open minded about buying one as you carry those same, or worse, viewpoints and social media manipulations?

And as far as "commuting" 300 miles, how many people do you know that commute over 4 hours a day? 3 hours? 2 hours at full highway speeds? Two hours at highway speeds is 140 miles. Two hours maybe, thats common, but that usually isnt due to distance and at speed.

 

[WXman]

...sigh... except those environmental points you claim are fasle information regurgitate on social media.

Yes, there IS an impact, but because their is one, the false narative is that there is THE SAME impact, and thats not true.

Yes, lithium mining and environmental impact are terrible, and yet are SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than from gas, and are still less if scaled. The largest lithium mine makes enough lithium to provide for 90% of ev manufacturing, and yet it is one HUNDRED times smaller than the open pit mining for bitnum in Canada that provides less than 3% of the world's petroleum. Thirty TIMES less earth is moved yearly in that lithium mine than is moved in the oil sands. And that's before we get into the dozens of other impacts from oil.

No, the electricity used does not "come from fossil fuels". SOME comes from fossil fuels, just over half. And that HALF comes from energy systems with SIGNIFICANTLY higher efficiency than gas engines. And almost all of those use fuels that dont requiring burning one part for every four parts made.

And it is these kinds of false statements that are holding back adoption. Yes, MILLIONS of US drivers WOULD be better off. He in no way said most, the majority, or heaven forbid ALL. The point WAS that MANY would. That IS options.

And this is where I get critical. You yourself, an owner, just repeated false information and mistook a statement made and believed it was intended to imply forcing compliance. How many others who are not as open minded about buying one as you carry those same, or worse, viewpoints and social media manipulations?

And as far as "commuting" 300 miles, how many people do you know that commute over 4 hours a day? 3 hours? 2 hours at full highway speeds? Two hours at highway speeds is 140 miles. Two hours maybe, thats common, but that usually isnt due to distance and at speed.

Not true. Where I live, 97% of our electricity historically has come from coal. The percentage is shrinking slowly, mostly due to government regulation (which is also driving costs up and hurting the middle class but that's another story for another tiime) but it's still far more than "just over half". So yes, MOST of the electricity in my battery pack right now came from fossil fuels.

You are saying that I'm repeating false information. I'm saying YOU are repeating false information. Who gets to decide which of us is correct?

Not only is my background in these sciences, but I have a very close family member who is our #2 guy in the state EPA. He has told me many times that EVs are a major problem, because they don't even have a good plan for when all these battery packs and electronic waste parts are at end of life. It's one of the biggest environmental challenges they face in the field of waste management.

As far as commuting goes, you're missing the point. It doesn't matter how many people commute 300 miles. It matters that they CAN.

Folks like yourself are a detriment to EV adoption. The "force feeding" of EV tech to the masses is what pi$$ed people off over the last 4 years and put a sour taste in their mouth. Again, I say that OPTIONS are what is best. Let people drive what they want.

 

[Mach Turtle]

Thanks, @WXman, for bringing up several points that are worthy of discussion...and reminding me to plug in my truck.

I agree that people can and should buy what they desire. The problem I see is that people's desires are being manipulated by many media, convincing people that what they desire is what's good for oil companies, good for the politicians they've bought, good for car manufacturers, good for dealers who make money from ICE engine service... but not necessarily good for the customers.

Having just plugged in my truck, I thought I'd check. As of this moment, about 75% of my charging energy is coming from the small solar array on my roof, and a bit over 60% of the rest is coming from wind and solar around our grid. That's not representative of the whole country, but neither is ≥90% coal generation; @Firn's estimate is reasonable. And don't miss the efficiency: about 80% of the electric energy we use makes our electric vehicles go, while around 20% of the energy in gas in gas cars is converted to mechanical propulsion.

All this having been said, the industry and society definitely need to address the points @WXman has made; the vehicles and charging infrastructure need to continue to improve. But also, people need to hear more facts and less FUD.

 

[Firn]

Not true. Where I live, 97% of our electricity historically has come from coal. The percentage is shrinking slowly, mostly due to government regulation (which is also driving costs up and hurting the middle class but that's another story for another tiime) but it's still far more than "just over half". So yes, MOST of the electricity in my battery pack right now came from fossil fuels.

You are saying that I'm repeating false information. I'm saying YOU are repeating false information. Who gets to decide which of us is correct?

Not only is my background in these sciences, but I have a very close family member who is our #2 guy in the state EPA. He has told me many times that EVs are a major problem, because they don't even have a good plan for when all these battery packs and electronic waste parts are at end of life. It's one of the biggest environmental challenges they face in the field of waste management.

As far as commuting goes, you're missing the point. It doesn't matter how many people commute 300 miles. It matters that they CAN.

Folks like yourself are a detriment to EV adoption. The "force feeding" of EV tech to the masses is what pi$$ed people off over the last 4 years and put a sour taste in their mouth. Again, I say that OPTIONS are what is best. Let people drive what they want.

Yes, locally the grid can be different, however when speaking for the country it is not true. Most of MY power comes from coal, but claiming that for all people is categorically false, because as a country that is not true. The EIA publishes our energy grid and just over half our energy comes from Coal and Natural Gas. What is true for you does NOT mean that is what is true at a large scale. Context matters and you were speaking of EVs in general, not yours specifically.

Yes, there is an impact from the waste. There is also an impact on the waste of burned gasoline. The big difference is one of those CAN be recycled. More so, that recycling and e-waste is a MUCH larger problem for electronics in general, and that includes batteries. Even with the worlds largest automobile market being 50% EV for new car sales STILL 60% of lithium goes to NOT-evs.

Yes, it does matter how many commute 300 miles, because that is who WILL do so. "Can do" something really isn't important if nobody actually does so. Hypothetical doesn't matter if there is zero practical point and in the rare chance they in fact do so they can buy something from the other 90% of the vehicle market.

Stop seeing everyone who corrects you as "force feeding" EV tech. I did NONE of that, I provided you the factual information. Don't assume that because I didn't agree with you I must be one of "them". I have no preference one over the other, I have owned 26 different vehicles, only one of which is an EV. I have more carbureted vehicles at home than I have EVs. I didn't buy one to "save the planet". But I AM an engineer but more so am a professional intelligence analyst and truly research topics that interest me, and impact and where the energy comes from certainly interested me.

 

[hturnerfamily]

there is no perfect vehicle.

so, why do we argue it?

My Dad is bigger than your Dad...ok.





so?

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