Farley says Hybrid and Range-extenders are the answer for trucks (except fleets)

[Maxx]

My thinking on the “unresolvable” comment is it is in regards to being able to make it profitably. They can’t seem to get to the same price point of the similar large truck ICE vehicle. Yet. Over time, battery costs will come down and it will be a no brainer. They are not there yet.

I wonder how much of the problem is production cost and how much is the quality issues:

https://qz.com/ford-warranty-costs-earnings-1851605102

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[bthanos]

It’s all about BOM costs. Warrantee problems aren’t deciders as those factor into all car types. He’s trying to invest in developing cars he can sell profitably now. As the market is saying it won’t pay a premium for BEV he’s doubly challenged on vehicles that require a large one which means low efficiency trucks. The smaller vehicles require less battery which means he can increase the profit and compare favorably to ICE versions.

 

[Hammick]

For big trucks, I still think an EREV is the way to go until battery costs come down or the energy density goes up (or both!)

The gas engine is on there to charge the battery but it’s not connected to the wheels so you’d have the benefits of an EV - electric motors, instant torque, regen brakes, no transmission, quiet, etc., with a few downsides of ICE like buying gas and oil changes. Hopefully the battery is big enough that 80-90% of driving would still be all electric.

This kind of a setup would help bring in the public who still has range anxiety and the more vehicles on the road with electric power is better for all of us. The higher the install base of plug in vehicles, the more chargers will be built to accommodate them.

I'm not sure an EREV will convince many people. If the battery is decent sized at all they will still be super expensive. I haven't been able to convince anyone to get an EV. Even my most down to earth, rational and educated family and friends are afraid of them. I'm guessing all of us early adopters are "car" guys and gals. I know I am.

 

[Joe.....Montana]

This, 100%. If you could recharge 10-80 in the 15 min span (hello, Hyundai and Lucid), then your overall range is less of a concern. You could keep the same size battery and even when towing just recharge that quickly, it's practically fine. I also do not agree that the issues are "unresolvable" -- especially for the large SUVs. The Lucid Gravity has the cargo space of a Chevy Suburban and can still go 450 miles on a 123 kWh battery. Last I checked there isn't a larger SUV than the Suburban, so getting the same cargo space as that is definitely a "large" SUV. This is a lot of talk to appease short term profits/investors.

Anyone that says any problem is "unresolvable' is incredibly narrow-minded and a fool. Tech progresses so fast and things change. Don't be like the NYT in 1903 saying it would take millions of years for humans to create an airplane. Or Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone saying touchscreens don't work because they have limitations for typing and price....If this is how Ford really thinks then my next car will be 100% not be a Ford (not that Ford or anyone cares about what I do).

Would love to get into a Lucid Gravity to replace our Highlander Hybrid. Tough to swallow the $100k price tag and worry about service up in Montana.

 

[sean7512]

Would love to get into a Lucid Gravity to replace our Highlander Hybrid. Tough to swallow the $100k price tag and worry about service up in Montana.

Yea, their service network is the biggest barrier for them or Rivian at this point. Ford dealers may not be great, but its better than having absolutely no choices....

 

[lightspeed]

I like Farley, but he is looking at his feet instead forward.

Chinese car companies TODAY are buying batteries near $5000 per 100kWh and it's coming down 10% to 20% per year. Gen2/3 batteries will be 2x to 3x the current energy density, perhaps some version of solid-state, with more charge cycles and higher charge rates.

Chinese car companies TODAY have demonstrated cars that charge at 400kW+, 10% to 80% in like 9 minutes! The Chinese make mediocre EVs that cost $13K and very good EVs that cost $30K. American and German cars are dead in China (except for very high end luxury).

Farley needs to figure out how to compete with Chinese production on BEVs or Ford is done. The only moat they have now is cheap gas, tariffs on imported trucks, and the ban on Chinese cars.

Given the current direction of the industry, there is a high chance that most future vehicles will be branded vehicles made in Chinese factories. There is nothing special about a car that can't be made cheaper in China.

Range extenders are what Ford should have done for the Lightning. Not for the next-gen platform.

 

[Meddle]

Looks like T3 will likely be fleet-only?

https://insideevs.com/news/749756/ford-large-ev-trucks-have-unresolvable-problems/

Edit: After rereading the article, maybe he's only referring to the HD class of vehicles?

I’ve said it before, he is laying the ground work to bail on EV strategy and turn the Lightning into a luxury variant.

 

[Oafy44]

Don’t pay any attention to Farley. He won’t be there In 2027 so it doesn’t matter what he says. He has made promises and statements then A month later says the opposite to the other crowd he’s talking to.

if your an EV only buyer - you only read articles that mention the ford EV platform. But if you also have an f350 diesel to go along with your EV - it’s a total 180 . I read both sides and it’s all just pandering to your audience

Ford is stuck in the middle and is too big / too corporate / too old and too afraid to do what the future is , and arguably what the present is becoming - and that is an EV fleet with a small sprinkle of ICE selections. Just like how deepseek blew up the theory of investing /trillions/ billions In AI- the same will happen for batteries. There will be a breakthrough and fossil fuels will only be needed for select fleets and for cars that will age out over time. Hybrids are just stop gaps but once you get over a certain weight for a vehicle there is very little savings as the ford power boost has shown.
If you never had a pure EV- hybrids seems like a logical answer - once you have a lightning - you realize how much a powerboost is just a money grab for unsuspecting customers who have never tried a lightning - the powerboosr is the MP player of our generation per se.

but don’t worry. Wirh GM pumping out 450 plus range with their trucks / telsa being Tesla - ford will have to adapt and will.- shareholders aren’t going to take a 0% gain in this stock for the past 5 years much longer.

 

[Oafy44]

I'm not sure an EREV will convince many people. If the battery is decent sized at all they will still be super expensive. I haven't been able to convince anyone to get an EV. Even my most down to earth, rational and educated family and friends are afraid of them. I'm guessing all of us early adopters are "car" guys and gals. I know I am.

Not trying to say I’m awesome but the opposite has happened to me. 4 of my friends bought lightings the past year after I told them about my experience. Maybe because they have seen me with a raptor /f450/f350 tremor/and a bronco in 4 years and still have a lightning they see I really like it .ha!

 

[Altivec]

I like Farley, but he is looking at his feet instead forward.

Chinese car companies TODAY are buying batteries near $5000 per 100kWh and it's coming down 10% to 20% per year. Gen2/3 batteries will be 2x to 3x the current energy density, perhaps some version of solid-state, with more charge cycles and higher charge rates.

Chinese car companies TODAY have demonstrated cars that charge at 400kW+, 10% to 80% in like 9 minutes! The Chinese make mediocre EVs that cost $13K and very good EVs that cost $30K. American and German cars are dead in China (except for very high end luxury).

Farley needs to figure out how to compete with Chinese production on BEVs or Ford is done. The only moat they have now is cheap gas, tariffs on imported trucks, and the ban on Chinese cars.

Given the current direction of the industry, there is a high chance that most future vehicles will be branded vehicles made in Chinese factories. There is nothing special about a car that can't be made cheaper in China.

Range extenders are what Ford should have done for the Lightning. Not for the next-gen platform.

Exactly this. Farley should know better because he's been monitoring China. Batteries are rapidly advancing in density, charge speed, longevity and price. By the time this complex range extender is out, the Chinese will be eating Ford's lunch with 600 to 800 mile ranges that charge in minutes. It's a complete waste of engineering time and money to pivot your future on a NEW gas design that has a tiny battery in it. They need to focus on cheaper and faster charging batteries and design it in a way that the next model year can jump to next gen tech. None of this lightning business, where you announce a design in 2020 and in 2025 you still have the same battery and charging speed. This is like the early days of smart phones, when the tech was evolving rapidly. You can't wait years to advance or you will be severely spanked by your competition. That only works when an industry is mature. Only the nimble will survive this transition and from what I am hearing, I am very fearful of Ford's future.

 

[lightspeed]

Don’t pay any attention to Farley. He won’t be there In 2027 so it doesn’t matter what he says. He has made promises and statements then A month later says the opposite to the other crowd he’s talking to.

if your an EV only buyer - you only read articles that mention the ford EV platform. But if you also have an f350 diesel to go along with your EV - it’s a total 180 . I read both sides and it’s all just pandering to your audience

Ford is stuck in the middle and is too big / too corporate / too old and too afraid to do what the future is , and arguably what the present is becoming - and that is an EV fleet with a small sprinkle of ICE selections. Just like how deepseek blew up the theory of investing /trillions/ billions In AI- the same will happen for batteries. There will be a breakthrough and fossil fuels will only be needed for select fleets and for cars that will age out over time. Hybrids are just stop gaps but once you get over a certain weight for a vehicle there is very little savings as the ford power boost has shown.
If you never had a pure EV- hybrids seems like a logical answer - once you have a lightning - you realize how much a powerboost is just a money grab for unsuspecting customers who have never tried a lightning - the powerboosr is the MP player of our generation per se.

but don’t worry. Wirh GM pumping out 450 plus range with their trucks / telsa being Tesla - ford will have to adapt and will.- shareholders aren’t going to take a 0% gain in this stock for the past 5 years much longer.

Deep-seek is full of shit on the $6 million thing, but other than that, agree with what you're saying. <--- just to add context, there are a lot of factors to consider here, but like almost anything Chinese, they have factors that help them do things for less, but also, they did some clever optimization. I don't mean to minimize their effort.

I should have said, I like Farley, but mostly because he's related to Chris Farley and kinda looks the same. And he seems like a car guy which is cool.

But Ford is moving too slow.

 

[lightspeed]

Exactly this. Farley should know better because he's been monitoring China. Batteries are rapidly advancing in density, charge speed, longevity and price. By the time this complex range extender is out, the Chinese will be eating Ford's lunch with 600 to 800 mile ranges that charge in minutes. It's a complete waste of engineering time and money to pivot your future on a NEW gas design that has a tiny battery in it. They need to focus on cheaper and faster charging batteries and design it in a way that the next model year can jump to next gen tech. None of this lightning business, where you announce a design in 2020 and in 2025 you still have the same battery and charging speed. This is like the early days of smart phones, when the tech was evolving rapidly. You can't wait years to advance or you will be severely spanked by your competition. That only works when an industry is mature. Only the nimble will survive this transition and from what I am hearing, I am very fearful of Ford's future.

Agree. And I would like to see Ford survive.

They need to innovate and dream big.

 

[Oafy44]

Deep-seek is full of shit on the $6 million thing, but other than that, agree with what you're saying.

I should have said, I like Farley, but mostly because he's related to Chris Farley and kinda looks the same. And he seems like a car guy which is cool.

But Ford is moving too slow.

No way deep seek is $6 but it does give credence to open source platforms like Meta. All it does it make the adaption cheaper and faster. - just like batteries are becoming.
Agree - Chris Farley is the best Farley.

 

[lightspeed]

No way deep seek is $6 but it does give credence to open source platforms like Meta. All it does it make the adaption cheaper and faster. - just like batteries are becoming.
Agree - Chris Farley is the best Farley.

Off-topic but 100% agree, that there are many optimizations coming for AI. But the "real" AI that's coming will still cost billions in capital investment.

 

[Altivec]

Agree. And I would like to see Ford survive.

They need to innovate and dream big.

I too want Ford to survive. It's the only reason I waste my time commenting. My Dad always bought Ford trucks and I've always had a Ford Truck (going back 60 years). I would like that tradition to continue. They were on the right path and I even understood the 2 year delay to get some hybrid money during the tough sledding years. But this back pedalling on EV's and focusing your next gen on hybrids, is basically writing your own Obituary. When the market does flip to EV, like I said, January was at 10% market share, it's going to be rapid. GM is already ready for the shift with next gen models in every category. At Ford, 2 years from now, they are going to be offering a "gas" range extender. Are you kidding me.

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