WSJ: Ford Considers Scrapping Electric Version of F-150 Truck

[sotek2345]

Uh oh. The Novelis aluminum plant caught fire again...

https://www.oswegocountynewsnow.com...cle_d31aaf98-43e2-4af8-bd64-bfa7213e4d8f.html

Well that isn't good. Beyond the impact to the automotive industry, I have to be concerned about the conditions at the plant that lead to repeat fires.

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[djwildstar]

Uh oh. The Novelis aluminum plant caught fire again...

Once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action.​

-- Ian Fleming, Goldfinger (1959)​

​

 

[TaxmanHog]

Once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action.​

-- Ian Fleming, Goldfinger (1959)​

​

Yes, my suspicions are piqued by this, industrial sabotage is thing lately around the world, look at issues in the EU, Russian agents accused of bombing a Polish railroad the other day.

 

[sotek2345]

Yes, my suspicions are piqued by this, industrial sabotage is thing lately around the world, look at issues in the EU, Russian agents accused of bombing a Polish railroad the other day.

I was thinking of lax standards and ignoring safety issues due to schedule pressure, but yeah - sabotage is a real concern. I wonder if this plant supplies any defense contractors.

 

[CD4TNF]

Interesting article stating Ford is air freighting the rolls of aluminum. Drives the production cost astronomically high. Helps explain the Lightning production pause from a financial perspective.


https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ford-aluminum-f-150-tariffs

 

[djwildstar]

Interesting article stating Ford is air freighting the rolls of aluminum. Drives the production cost astronomically high.

Yeah. Reports are the Ford is on track to lose close to a billion dollars (and possibly a good bit more due to this new fire) simply because they can't produce enough F-150's to meet demand. I'm sure they're willing to sacrifice a lot just to keep that F-150 production line putting out as many vehicles as they can.

 

[hturnerfamily]

Auto Manufacturers don't make decisions simply based on whether a vehicle is gas, diesel, electric, or anything else - the history of auto manufacturing is wrought with failures of 'great ideas', and also full of 'surprises' that few saw coming: the Ford MUSTANG, based on the Falcon(not a name many of us bring to mind readily), was a Juggernaut... it seemed to have come out of nowhere. It was the RIGHT TIME, and, the newer younger barely 20 year-olds, born right after the war, were ready for a 'new' generation of more 'hip' vehicles...

Whether Ford is successfull, long-term, with the LIGHTNING, or the MachE, or any other 'different' vehicle, remains to be seen, but they will make determinations based on market conditions, costs, manufacturing demands, the changes of sentiment, and so many factors that we are not even aware of... it's not the 'Lightning', or that it is an electric powertrain, that's the issue - it's ALL the factors.
The success of Tesla certainly shows that EVs are not the problem, but likely much more than that.

I love, LOVE, my Lightning. It does not care, and neither do I, if Ford ever produces another one.
My sentiment is not that Ford 'must' continue the Lightning, but that Ford DID build the Lightning!


Thank You Jim Farley : )

 

[Traconesu]

Interesting article stating Ford is air freighting the rolls of aluminum. Drives the production cost astronomically high. Helps explain the Lightning production pause from a financial perspective.


https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ford-aluminum-f-150-tariffs

Ford needs to definitely get out of New York and rebuild in Texas.

 

[Maxx]

Yeah. Reports are the Ford is on track to lose close to a billion dollars (and possibly a good bit more due to this new fire) simply because they can't produce enough F-150's to meet demand. I'm sure they're willing to sacrifice a lot just to keep that F-150 production line putting out as many vehicles as they can.

‘It is kinda double whammy. Aluminum companies have started to have U.S. only surcharge due to tariff volatility. Rio Tinto Group is charging us more. Alcoa has diverted around 100,000 tonnes of Canadian aluminum away from the U.S. to other markets after the tariff hikes which makes supplies tighter for us. U.S. customers pay more in London Metal Exchange (LME) because we are considered riskier now. I wonder if Ford is considering going back to steel or switching back has too many downsides to consider.

 

[Traconesu]

I don't buy this perspective.

From available reporting, Ford started working on an "electric F-150" in February 2018. It is hard for me to believe that the first Trump administration (remember, inaugurated in January 2017) was "breathing down Ford's neck" to build electric pickups.

It is much more likely that Ford became aware of multiple companies working on EV pickup trucks. Tesla had a pickup truck on their master plan starting in 2016, and Rivian revealed its first two products, the A1T pickup and A1C SUV in December 2017 (they were renamed R1T and R1C about a year later). This put Ford in a difficult position: either develop a BEV pickup of their own, or cede leadership of what was expected to be a significant market segment to a pair of EV startups.

I think the decision to base their BEV pickup on the F-150 was brilliant. If buyers want a re-invention of the pickup truck concept, Tesla has got that covered, while Rivian has the EV adventure/lifestyle angle. I think Ford (correctly) assumed that there's a reason that the F-150 is the best-selling pickup in the US, and it isn't because it's the cheapest. So it stands to reason that "An F-150, but electric" would appeal to a lot of buyers. Sales have proven that out: the Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup in the US.

Given all of this, it makes for a clear decision regarding the future of the Lightning:

• IF you believe that EVs in general, and full-size EV pickups and SUVs specifically, will never amount to more than 10% to 20% of comparable gas and hybrid sales, then it makes sense for Ford to cancel the F-150 Lightning. There's no sense in maintaining EV marketshare or building expertise with EVs if they will never be more than a niche market. Leave EVs to the EV-specific start-ups like Tesla and Rivian, and EV-focused traditional carmakers like Hyundai and Kia.
• IF you believe that EVs represent a key area of market growth, then it is important for Ford to maintain their leadership position in this segment by building better pickup trucks and compact crossovers than their competition. Even if this represents a loss per unit sold, it is an important investment in maintaining and growing their future business.

I don't believe figures like $35,000 to $100,000 that are often bandied about, because these confuse capital investments with the cost to produce an existing design. I DO suspect that the loss of CAFE penalties and Federal income tax incentives (both zeroed out in July 2025) do mean that Ford loses a bit on each EV sold. Back-of-the envelope calculations suggest that each Lightning sold prior to July 2025 saved Ford between $500 and $1000 in CAFE penalties, and most carmakers took advantage of the $7500 Federal tax credit to inflate margins as much as possible.

Everyone thinks they could get $7500 federal tax credit on their EV purchase when in fact all you can get is what you pay in taxes that year up to $7500.

 

[Traconesu]

Leased mine so no rebate for me.

I only got around $3500 on my platinum because that's all the federal taxes that I paid that year.

 

[WXman]

Everyone thinks they could get $7500 federal tax credit on their EV purchase when in fact all you can get is what you pay in taxes that year up to $7500.

Leased mine so no rebate for me.

Leased mine too. The $7,500 was shown as a discount on the paperwork, plus the dealer chipped in another $1,000. Brought the sale price down much closer to the residual value and lead to really low monthly payments. It's the sole reason I am in a Lightning today, because I did not show up at the dealership to look at Lightnings.

 

[Zaptor]

I only got around $3500 on my platinum because that's all the federal taxes that I paid that year.

I am confused: How were you able to take *any* federal rebate on a Platinum which certainly exceeded the $80k MSRP cap?
-Zap

 

[TaxmanHog]

I only got around $3500 on my platinum because that's all the federal taxes that I paid that year.

Was this tax year 2022 ?

 

[RickLightning]

Everyone thinks they could get $7500 federal tax credit on their EV purchase when in fact all you can get is what you pay in taxes that year up to $7500.

False.

Initially true, but when they modified the rule to get the credit at the dealership if you wanted and dealer allowed, this qualification went away.

Leased mine so no rebate for me.

Ford took it. Impacted residual.

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