Something about this really stinks...

[Wattsgas]

I am in the trust but verify. It makes an interesting story if it succeeds or if it fails. I have personally been involved in projects that the experts have said are sure to fail. I have also seen effective programs killed by corporate interests. Look no further than the Ford Lightning. Promised cheap, but only offered expensive.

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[electricpig]

Simple. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In context, Donut Labs is making a extraordinary claim, and has yet to produce extraordinary evidence. I got one hope they produce that extraordinary evidence, but until they do, the world is full of fakes, scammers, crooks. I will remain highly skeptical until and unless multiple lines of extraordinary evidence emerges. It's all just noise otherwise.

 

[El Duderino]

Simple. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In context, Donut Labs is making a extraordinary claim, and has yet to produce extraordinary evidence. I got one hope they produce that extraordinary evidence, but until they do, the world is full of fakes, scammers, crooks. I will remain highly skeptical until and unless multiple lines of extraordinary evidence emerges. It's all just noise otherwise.

I agree with everything you said. I hope they succeed for everyone's sake. But if it's what he claims, why announce it now? Why not later when there is more 3rd party evidence? Actual packs in actual vehicles?

Gucci hat man, donut believe him.

 

[ZeusDriver]

I agree with everything you said. I hope they succeed for everyone's sake. But if it's what he claims, why announce it now? Why not later when there is more 3rd party evidence? Actual packs in actual vehicles?

I am also skeptical, but have been in Marko's position on a far smaller scale.

His slightly early original announcement, (originally a quarter away from delivery) gives him the ability to gauge whether he can sell the bikes: they are three times the price of a Honda 600, that performs about the same, after all, so it is hardly a slam dunk. (Compare that to Ford's announcement of the UEV truck which is more than a year away.)

He is two days away from providing 3rd party evidence. (the testing has already been done... how much longer would you think he should wait? The bikes themselves will be all the evidence required: the first ones will be thoroughly tested and torn down.

You may wonder why I give a shit, (aside from having my own plans for his batteries):

I presented to a couple hundred people (with potential investors) in a thing (like a large Shark Tank, but real instead of scripted) where everyone in the audience texted back-and forth their "feelings" as the presentations went on. Someone said, re me, "I don't know... there is something off about this guy. " I'd presented to numerous corporate leaders in the past, so was not completely clueless or fabulously nervous, and the "tech," in this case, was not very hard to grasp. It was just a little car prototype, and it already performed as advertised, and the "claims" were not even unusual, given its tiny size. I was a little circumspect re sales projections,, while the norm that day was to be wild and crazy optimistic: -- every presenter had developed the next great thing with "unlimited market potential".

I had developed a niche vehicle... a very simple one at that. During the presentation, people laughed at the right times... it seemed that I had established some rapport: No obvious indications that people were skeptical. I would make eye contact with numerous people who were apparently interested, and generally nodding along at the right times. But the idea of my being "off" circulated the room. Funding didn't happen for my product, but it did happen for a few ventures that have since crashed.

Getting a new product out there is hard enough (especially if it is not software) without people making up things to criticize, like parading the fact that Marko was a successful rapper, or that he "somehow" has made millions, as if there is something wrong with those things or that those things should make one skeptical. Or saying that something "stinks" but not explaining what that something might be.

It is generally accepted that 100,000 cycles is about right for a supercapacitor, and that 10C charge and discharge rates are entirely reasonable for a supercapacitor. Hybrid devices (electrochemical/capacitive) using graphene have demonstrated, in third party tests, that 400 Wh/Kg energy density is possible. So far, nothing I've heard Marko say seems out of the ordinary or implausible, in light of those figures. But those in this "room" and many others are saying there is something "off" about him. He must be lying.

It is stunningly obvious that he is not the developer of the chemistry or structure, nor has he claimed to be. That role goes to Nordic Nano. Their PhD does not strike me as a scam artist: why go to all the trouble of getting a PhD??? In the US we have a president who barely made it through undergrad school, and he makes people believe the most outlandish things, despite his conservative supreme court saying that what he is doing is illegal.

If, by the end of next week, Marko is producing only bullshit, then I will slide more in the skeptic direction. But so far, he has stayed on track to deliver the bikes by the end of March. Do I think he is a great presenter? No. Does he come across as defensive? Sure. Do I? Sure.

Did I rail against EEstor? Yes, early on and consistently, even while Kleiner Perkins was funding it. This strikes me as different. But I could certainly be wrong. We'll see. Soon enough. EEstor dragged on for ages, in comparison.

On the other hand. I bought into the Ford Lightning scam, like most of you. How long had Jim been planning to ditch the truck? Certainly for more than a year, but he was not forthcoming. All that T3 BS.

 

[El Duderino]

The Lightning was a far cry from a scam compared to Donut. 100k Lightnings in the wild and this guy has two YouTube videos. A wide chasm...

I can appreciate your experience and your perspective. But do you really think that you would get your hands on Donut cells anytime within the next 5 to 10 years?

It's a big if, but if these cells are real and they are this revolutionary, very deep pockets are going to get access to these first.

 

[Shmoe]

I am also skeptical, but have been in Marko's position on a far smaller scale.

His slightly early original announcement, (originally a quarter away from delivery) gives him the ability to gauge whether he can sell the bikes: they are three times the price of a Honda 600, that performs about the same, after all, so it is hardly a slam dunk. (Compare that to Ford's announcement of the UEV truck which is more than a year away.)

He is two days away from providing 3rd party evidence. (the testing has already been done... how much longer would you think he should wait? The bikes themselves will be all the evidence required: the first ones will be thoroughly tested and torn down.

You may wonder why I give a shit, (aside from having my own plans for his batteries):

I presented to a couple hundred people (with potential investors) in a thing (like a large Shark Tank, but real instead of scripted) where everyone in the audience texted back-and forth their "feelings" as the presentations went on. Someone said, re me, "I don't know... there is something off about this guy. " I'd presented to numerous corporate leaders in the past, so was not completely clueless or fabulously nervous, and the "tech," in this case, was not very hard to grasp. It was just a little car prototype, and it already performed as advertised, and the "claims" were not even unusual, given its tiny size. I was a little circumspect re sales projections,, while the norm that day was to be wild and crazy optimistic: -- every presenter had developed the next great thing with "unlimited market potential".

I had developed a niche vehicle... a very simple one at that. During the presentation, people laughed at the right times... it seemed that I had established some rapport: No obvious indications that people were skeptical. I would make eye contact with numerous people who were apparently interested, and generally nodding along at the right times. But the idea of my being "off" circulated the room. Funding didn't happen for my product, but it did happen for a few ventures that have since crashed.

Getting a new product out there is hard enough (especially if it is not software) without people making up things to criticize, like parading the fact that Marko was a successful rapper, or that he "somehow" has made millions, as if there is something wrong with those things or that those things should make one skeptical. Or saying that something "stinks" but not explaining what that something might be.

It is generally accepted that 100,000 cycles is about right for a supercapacitor, and that 10C charge and discharge rates are entirely reasonable for a supercapacitor. Hybrid devices (electrochemical/capacitive) using graphene have demonstrated, in third party tests, that 400 Wh/Kg energy density is possible. So far, nothing I've heard Marko say seems out of the ordinary or implausible, in light of those figures. But those in this "room" and many others are saying there is something "off" about him. He must be lying.

It is stunningly obvious that he is not the developer of the chemistry or structure, nor has he claimed to be. That role goes to Nordic Nano. Their PhD does not strike me as a scam artist: why go to all the trouble of getting a PhD??? In the US we have a president who barely made it through undergrad school, and he makes people believe the most outlandish things, despite his conservative supreme court saying that what he is doing is illegal.

If, by the end of next week, Marko is producing only bullshit, then I will slide more in the skeptic direction. But so far, he has stayed on track to deliver the bikes by the end of March. Do I think he is a great presenter? No. Does he come across as defensive? Sure. Do I? Sure.

Did I rail against EEstor? Yes, early on and consistently, even while Kleiner Perkins was funding it. This strikes me as different. But I could certainly be wrong. We'll see. Soon enough. EEstor dragged on for ages, in comparison.

On the other hand. I bought into the Ford Lightning scam, like most of you. How long had Jim been planning to ditch the truck? Certainly for more than a year, but he was not forthcoming. All that T3 BS.

skepticism dictates that a large leap being announced way too early is absolutely a good reason to be skeptical.

can we stop referring to this guy by his initials and first name as though he’s known or accomplished in any way whatsoever?

that also rubs me the wrong way with your “skepticism”.

 

[ZeusDriver]

I can appreciate your experience and your perspective. But do you really think that you would get your hands on Donut cells anytime within the next 5 to 10 years?

Consider this: People were nearly as skeptical about the LFP cells I used on that little car 15 years ago... especially re their bursting into flames. I still have them, and they came from some-fly-by night company in China (CATL or some crap like that). Half of them still have their little green lights on for each cell, after 15 years of abuse.

If I get my cells from Donut Lab, I will be pleasantly surprised. Marko (he and I are on a first name basis... ha ha ha - its funny what sets people off) has not yet missed any deadlines, and is bringing out the test results before I would have expected. Then a couple weeks later, the bikes themselves -- that's incredibly soon, and he has not backed off on that date, and in fact recently reiterated it.

I would be surprised (shocked?) if Toyota does not have their SS cells in cars in 3 years. (If the industry were not so reactive and wishy-washy it would have been sooner.) They will be 450 - 500 wH/kg -- higher than what Donut claims. I seriously doubt that Toyota is scamming people -- that is generally not their style. They have loads of patents and have working prototypes.

I doubt that Quantum Scape will prevail. Toyota and Panasonic together have real money. (Ford Escape hybrid - that's Toyota, not Ford tech.)

Will Donut deliver and then go the way of A123, which seemed invincible for a while? Maybe.

 

[Shmoe]

I would be surprised (shocked?) if Toyota does not have their SS cells in cars in 3 years. (If the industry were not so reactive and wishy-washy it would have been sooner.) They will be 450 - 500 wH/kg -- higher than what Donut claims. I seriously doubt that Toyota is scamming people -- that is generally not their style. They have loads of patents and have working prototypes.

Same Toyota that banked for years on Hydrogen as the next thing instead of BEVs, as well.

 

[Shmoe]

On the other hand. I bought into the Ford Lightning scam, like most of you. How long had Jim been planning to ditch the truck? Certainly for more than a year, but he was not forthcoming. All that T3 BS.

That "scam" is in my driveway. The donut battery is a video fart in the wind until proven otherwise.

 

[Wattsgas]

The Lightning was a far cry from a scam compared to Donut. 100k Lightnings in the wild and this guy has two YouTube videos. A wide chasm...

I can appreciate your experience and your perspective. But do you really think that you would get your hands on Donut cells anytime within the next 5 to 10 years?

It's a big if, but if these cells are real and they are this revolutionary, very deep pockets are going to get access to these first.

Hmm. I think the same was said about Space X, Tesla and Starlink. Could probably also throw Microsoft and Apple into the mix.

 

[El Duderino]

Hmm. I think the same was said about Space X, Tesla and Starlink. Could probably also throw Microsoft and Apple into the mix.

I disagree. Not the same thing. They are consumer products that are already exist in the marketplace. This Donut is a YouTube video only at this point..

 

[Shmoe]

Hmm. I think the same was said about Space X, Tesla and Starlink. Could probably also throw Microsoft and Apple into the mix.

the difference, of course being, that they may have hyped actual products. But the products existed, shipped, and worked.

and don’t exist solely as a YouTube video.

 

[Shmoe]

If I get my cells from Donut Lab, I will be pleasantly surprised. Marko (he and I are on a first name basis... ha ha ha - its funny what sets people off) has not yet missed any deadlines, and is bringing out the test results before I would have expected. Then a couple weeks later, the bikes themselves -- that's incredibly soon, and he has not backed off on that date, and in fact recently reiterated it.

Marco Rubio? Marco Polo? Surely you're on a first name basis with someone of accomplishment and not just carrying water for a scam and actually believing that referring to this asshat on a first name basis does anything but kill your credibility.

Dude's not Cher.

Dude's not Bono.

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