Disappointment Thursday

[YankeeCP]

Unlocked a new level of disappointment today. Dealership just called to let me know they were getting additional allocation….one problem this was for a Maverick and not a Lightning. The waiting game continues

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[Yellow Buddy]

Ford would not have reopened 2022 Orders otherwise. It is possible that 2022 production may run into December and 2023 production will not start until that process is completed. Remember that there was a four month lag between the order bank opening for the 2022 and the start of production. Ford will not start taking 2023 orders until at least middle to late August, and they may let that date slip some if they do not have a firm plan for finishing 2022 production by that time.

Counterpoint. Order waves may not correlate with production or delivery.

A lot of that delay was for non-production rated reasons. Instead it was more launch related. Ford had a designated launch date with a lot of planned events, press, roadshow, etc. associated with it. I'm sure they also closely watched their production numbers to plan around the launch and tax credit eligibility. So it may not be fair to utilize a Wave 1 Order to delivery as a timeline.

I'm speaking as a Wave 1 order who has seen numerous Platinum and Lariat folks get scheduled and take delivery before myself, including at my own dealership where I was the first and only wave 1 order yet they have already delivered their first F150L

Instead, I think it has everything to do with Ford's production ramp. The demand was higher than expected, their production ramp is steeper than they thought they would need. They now need to get to over 3x the production numbers of this year for next, and 3x of 2023 in 2024. You don't just show up one morning and flip a switch for that. If you're adding lines or speeding up lines, you do it a little at a time. You make sure you can maintain quality while doing so.

So to me, having a Wave 7 shows they're ready or preparing that ramp for 2023. It's potentially also a good sign that QC has been happy with the outputs so far with minimal send backs.

Alternatively, Wave 7 could also be order abandonments and created to deliver/match customers to cars.

 

[sotek2345]

I guess we'll see. I think Wave 7 was to fill gaps from cancelled reservations/orders. Don't seem to be too many Wave 7 folk.

I wasn't counting wave 7. Half of waves 1 through 6 are still waiting to be scheduled.

 

[ivan256]

Anyone hoping their 2022 order might be shifted to 2023 will be in for a big loss. I expect 2023 MSRP to be increased by 5%-10% (especially after Tesla's huge increase today) making an $80,000 Lariat +$85,000. Increasing financing interest rates will add another $1,000 a year. Many, or all, 2023 models will lose at least half of the Tax Credit and inflation in 2023 will eat up even more until they can use it in 2024 tax season.

I do not have any inside information. These are all my own opinions but I always plan for the worst and hope for the best.

My biased money would be on Ford lowering the price by a significant portion - if not all - of the amount of tax credit that is lost as it expires. That's what Tesla did.

https://consumersresearch.org/tesla-drops-prices-after-ev-tax-credit-rollback/

It was also supposed to be the purpose of the tax credit; making EVs affordable during the development phase. If the tax credits didn't do their job and EVs end up unaffordable even after subsidising development, we should hold our politicians accountable for poorly implemented policy.

 

[Labs4Lightning]

My biased money would be on Ford lowering the price by a significant portion - if not all - of the amount of tax credit that is lost as it expires. That's what Tesla did.

https://consumersresearch.org/tesla-drops-prices-after-ev-tax-credit-rollback/

It was also supposed to be the purpose of the tax credit; making EVs affordable during the development phase. If the tax credits didn't do their job and EVs end up unaffordable even after subsidising development, we should hold our politicians accountable for poorly implemented policy.

There was just an article out that Mach e costs per vehicle have gone up by 25k. Considering battery prices are much higher I don’t think ford can or should lower price. They don’t need tax credit to sell trucks. So let them sell a lot more pro and xlt’s - lowering the price decreases their margin. So sell more of the lower margin trucks.
oh, and btw I not super excited to pay 80k for a truck. More a comment on cost of materials right now coupled with demand with surging gas prices.
ideally would like to see a truck that has better range and can take more juice at a faster speed. But those are only needed when conditions (mountains & high speed) eat juice.
other wise 280-305 will suffice.

 

[ivan256]

It'll be interesting to see if they can still sell out of $80k trucks when interest isn't effectively 0% anymore. I really don't think they can. It's easy to get a payment down by stretching a loan term and/or adding a balloon payment if interest is low, like Ford has been doing. But that game stops working with higher rates. And the reality is that the vast majority of people buying $50k+ trucks can't actually afford them.

Anyway, like I said. I'm biased because I haven't gotten to order yet and am likely to miss the credit.

 

[GoodSam]

Must be Disappointment Thursday as I just found the change, XLT 312A SR - delayed to 9/26 build week. Is the Mustang contactor problem causing delays in Dearborn for the Lightning?

 

[TaxmanHog]

Must be Disappointment Thursday as I just found the change, XLT 312A SR - delayed to 9/26 build week. Is the Mustang contactor problem causing delays in Dearborn for the Lightning?

I suspect this is a temporary shuffle, you will be pulled back into a favorable LOW TRIM week with a bunch of other PRO & XLT's soon, hold the faith I have seen it happen a hundred times!

 

[FordLightningMan]

Even with a price increase and half the tax credit?

If MY22 orders are pushed into MY23, wouldn't that indicate Ford is falling short of their 20k Lightning target? Combine that with the Mach-E recall and sales hold, I have to imagine Ford's 2022 EV production isn't going to hit initial estimates. Wouldn't delays of both primary Ford EV models mean the time to get the credit would move further out as well?

 

[sotek2345]

If MY22 orders are pushed into MY23, wouldn't that indicate Ford is falling short of their 20k Lightning target? Combine that with the Mach-E recall and sales hold, I have to imagine Ford's 2022 EV production isn't going to hit initial estimates. Wouldn't delays of both primary Ford EV models mean the time to get the credit would move further out as well?

It would take a very big delay to shift the credit out. It currently looks like they will hit it in late July or early August. Pushing another quarter would take the equivalent of a 2+ month full stop.

 

[Walle1jm]

I suspect this is a temporary shuffle, you will be pulled back into a favorable LOW TRIM week with a bunch of other PRO & XLT's soon, hold the faith I have seen it happen a hundred times!

Really? That would be awesome as I have same trim on order as well. Getting discouraged - hoped I would be able to drive my new Lightning at least a little this summer but now sounds like might be Halloween present ?

 

[TaxmanHog]

If they can accelerate production by 52+ units a week on 7/18 BW and continue the growth pace.

 

[sotek2345]

If they can accelerate production by 52+ units a week on 7/18 BW and continue the growth pace.

Great projection and I hope it holds true! So far it looks like every time that hit a "peak" week, the next 3 are more lackluster. Hopefully they can break that trend. 1400 per week in October isn't unreasonable either. That is half the rate they need to hit 150k per year.

If they hold their current rate of very roughly 500 per week, they will only get to about 12k.

Let's just all hope they are using a different high voltage disconnect than that Mach-e!

 

[sotek2345]

@TaxmanHog - so what do you think. Worth getting our hopes up this week, or should we plan on waiting until mid-July for the next round of scheduling?

 

[TaxmanHog]

@TaxmanHog - so what do you think. Worth getting our hopes up this week, or should we plan on waiting until mid-July for the next round of scheduling?

IMHO, they need to start the planning for August production soon, but maybe they will wait until the end of this month to let all the WAVE-7 finish their orders, then they have to total picture and will lay it out for the rest of the year, definitely filling up August capacity, then by mid to late July fill up the September schedule.

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