Fleet Lightning info possible insight to MY23 order info

[theblunden]

From tonight's live stream with Long McArthur. He mentioned that it's looking like August 4th for wave Invites for customer MY23 which doesn't sound right to me leaving just a month to schedule for job 1 assuming multiple waves will be needed to collect enough orders to schedule. No one knows what this MY23 wave process looks like but it doesn't seem right seeing how they had 2 months to schedule job 1 for MY22 and Ford is "ramping up" production. I could see them continuing the bi-weekly method in the beginning of MY23 to get enough for a good pool to pull from a month just seem too short for a wave process. Thoughts???

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[Yellow Buddy]

From tonight's live stream with Long McArthur. He mentioned that it's looking like August 4th for wave Invites for customer MY23 which doesn't sound right to me leaving just a month to schedule for job 1. No one knows what this MY23 wave process looks like but it doesn't seem right seeing how they had 2 months to schedule job 1 for MY22 and Ford is "ramping up" production. I could see them continuing the bi-weekly method in the beginning of MY23 to get enough for a good pool to pull from a month just seem too short for a wave process. Thoughts???

I think Ford is sold out for next year, and they have a set distribution of Pro/XLT/Lariat/Platinum trims that they want to produce.

It doesn’t matter when they open the order banks, they’ll produce when they want, in the batches they want. They’ll then work backwards to match the customer orders to the trucks and that will be the “scheduling” the customers.

Why do I think that? Because I’m a wave 1 order and there are Wave 3 orders who have taken delivery. They can always keep opening order banks until they get enough of the trim they need..

 

[theblunden]

So you think the roughly 15,000 orders they took for MY22 is all their making for the next year??? You basically just answered why they have multiple waves regardless of what wave you ordered in. If they are producing Lariats or platinums due to part availability they schedule those.

Never said the waves would stop or end also they only restricted ordering of trims for wave 7 to fill openings for unfulfilled allocations. I foresee that it will be wide open ordering off the rip for trims and as waves go closed out those as waves go on like MY22.

 

[broncoaz]

Darn, I didn’t realize the Maverick order banks for fleet were back in May. I’ll have to order retail for the 3-4 I need for the company.

 

[KevinC]

The chart you have seems to read that BEV scheduling begins on 8/4. If that's the case then you can't schedule if you don't have orders. The TBD on order banks opening is possibly TBD because they're not being opened up wide, but rather just to the waves which could still happen within a week. You'd think they would need a month of orders to really schedule efficiently.

Also note they are scheduling the Lightning 2 weeks before the regular F150. Possibly that's to prioritize parts to the lightning.

 

[theblunden]

The chart you have seems to read that BEV scheduling begins on 8/4. If that's the case then you can't schedule if you don't have orders. The TBD on order banks opening is possibly TBD because they're not being opened up wide, but rather just to the waves which could still happen within a week. You'd think they would need a month of orders to really schedule efficiently.

My thoughts exactly

 

[Amps]

Maybe I'm not following the question. But, 8/4 order bank is 67 days before Job # 1. They could go through the whole process of converting a lot of reservations to orders to scheduling production in that time.

 

[KevinC]

They schedule out pretty far in advance. They take orders pretty far in advance of scheduling. They've got to take orders really soon to stay on their timeline of scheduling on 8/4 , especially if they are going to prioritize common parts into the lightning vs the ICE f150. They should literally have the playbook right now if they are going to execute this on time.

 

[Fordskeptic]

Waited a year to potentially have the opportunity to order, but how things have changed in the past year. Wish I could say things changed for the better.

Interesting times. Might actually pass on the MY 23, something I could not imagine I would do 1 yr ago, 9 months ago, even 6 months ago.

 

[Commercial Sales Ford]

Darn, I didn’t realize the Maverick order banks for fleet were back in May. I’ll have to order retail for the 3-4 I need for the company.

23 Maverick order bank is 8/2 for fleet and retail.

 

[theblunden]

Waited a year to potentially have the opportunity to order, but how things have changed in the past year. Wish I could say things changed for the better.

Interesting times. Might actually pass on the MY 23, something I could not imagine I would do 1 yr ago, 9 months ago, even 6 months ago.

Why's that?

 

[Yellow Buddy]

So you think the roughly 15,000 orders they took for MY22 is all their making for the next year??? You basically just answered why they have multiple waves regardless of what wave you ordered in. If they are producing Lariats or platinums due to part availability they schedule those.

Never said the waves would stop or end also they only restricted ordering of trims for wave 7 to fill openings for unfulfilled allocations. I foresee that it will be wide open ordering off the rip for trims and as waves go closed out those as waves go on like MY22.

No, not all they are making.

I’m saying they know they are producing ~55,000 F150Ls for MY23. Of that, they know a certain % will be Pros, XLTs, etc. those parts can be ordered and staged. All before opening the order banks.

When they open the order banks, they can mark trims as Sold Out. Forcing the customer to choose. That’s not really building to order, but reality is you’re ordering to Fords manufacturing schedule.

Essentially, they’re not building to a customers order because you can’t truly order what you want any time you want. It’s also not sequential. A wave 5 order can be delivered before a wave 1 order. Rather when you order, you’re more matched to a production and manufacturing schedule that Ford has already set (and can adjust)

As such, the scheduling is more assignment or matching a customers order with what is going to be produced. That Lariat is coming down the line regardless of whether you order it or not, but someone does and they have the reservation data as to who that someone is. They can certainly open the order banks to target that group of folks too if they wanted to.

 

[Fordskeptic]

Why's that?

The F150L was always a want rather than a need. Lots of things have changed, interest rates, cost of living,& bear market all hurt. My old truck died and was replaced, which depleted funds, i am a yr closer to retirement, assumptions about ordering, production, prioritization, trim quotas, delivery, tax credits, dealership integrity, etc were hopelessly optimistic. In short my circumstances have changed to where I question whether spending $50k or more on a depreciating asset that I want more than need is the responsible thing to do. I work hard for a living and figured I can indulge myself. But at some point self indulgence borders on irresponsibilty. That's my dilemma.

 

[broncoaz]

The F150L was always a want rather than a need. Lots of things have changed, interest rates, cost of living,& bear market all hurt. My old truck died and was replaced, which depleted funds, i am a yr closer to retirement, assumptions about ordering, production, prioritization, trim quotas, delivery, tax credits, dealership integrity, etc were hopelessly optimistic. In short my circumstances have changed to where I question whether spending $50k or more on a depreciating asset that I want more than need is the responsible thing to do. I work hard for a living and figured I can indulge myself. But at some point self indulgence borders on irresponsibilty. That's my dilemma.

My plan is to save for tomorrow while living for today. Many people work their whole lives trying to get to retirement while forgetting to enjoy today. If we die the day after retirement our wife’s next husband will be well set up, might as well spend some of his treasure on yourself while you can.

 

[Fordskeptic]

My plan is to save for tomorrow while living for today. Many people work their whole lives trying to get to retirement while forgetting to enjoy today. If we die the day after retirement our wife’s next husband will be well set up, might as well spend some of his treasure on yourself while you can.

Point taken. I haven't ruled out ordering the F150L....but I can still enjoy life without it.

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