My Lightning burned to the ground

[Maxx]

From the Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and international studies (2024–2026)

Those studies normalize by miles traveled but not by age. A study in 22 shows correlation with age (pg 7-8). I assume most of the vehicles in study were ICE but if the same holds true for BEV, we should see our % fire go up as we have more older BEVs on the road. That probably would drop back down at some point as safer battery tech get implemented in BEVs.


From the report:
”Approximately three-quarters of the highway vehicle fires reported in the involved vehicles with model years of 2011 or earlier (cars 10–11 years old).”



https://content.nfpa.org/-/media/Pr...ires.pdf?rev=928a1755d83249dfb5a951905ee7e336

Sponsored

 

[Bestword57]

Well, they have been making Nissan Leafs since 2010.

 

[Maxx]

Well, they have been making Nissan Leafs since 2010.

The point is not if they exist on the road. Proportion of 2010 EVs on the road to total EVs on the road vs proportion of 2010 ICE vehicles on the road to total ICE is in question.

 

[Bestword57]

The point is not if they exist on the road. Proportion of 2010 EVs on the road to total EVs on the road vs proportion of 2010 ICE vehicles on the road to total ICE is in question.

Appreciate the catch, Maxx. You're right that we have a 'vanguard' of older EVs like the Leaf (2010+) and even some early Model S units hitting that 12-15 year mark.

The real statistical 'hiccup' is the volume disparity. In 2011, there were about 10k Leafs sold in the US vs. 12 million ICE vehicles. When the NFPA pulls data on '10-year-old cars,' the ICE sample size is massive, while the 2011-era BEV sample is more of a rounding error.

Basically, the '20x safer' headlines we see today are heavily carried by the millions of 2021-2024 BEVs that are still in their honeymoon phase. We won't have a truly 'age-adjusted' data set until this current wave of Lightnings and EVs hits its 12th birthday in the mid-2030s. That’s when we’ll see if the 'fire per 100k' curve stays flat or follows the ICE trend as components age

Sponsored