based on what ive seen on Tesla battery health at 100k i think we will be fine on the degradation, even more so with the buffer Ford added in. Its just the pains of being an early adopter is all.
This is what I'm hoping for too. If after 10 years or so I need to replace the battery, there's a good chance that it'll be cheaper to replace, and probbaly more energy dense than what we have now. As long as the rest of the truck is in good shape, why not drive it for another ten years?
On a drive of 500mi or more, range only matters until the first charging stop; then, and for the rest of the trip, what’s more important is charging rate. I’d rather have a more “light and nimble” Lightning SR, and access to Tesla Superchargers next Spring (which can reliably offer the maximum charging rates the Lightning can request). Trying to charge a 200kWh battery pack at a 62kW (de-rated) CCS dispenser sounds like the Chinese water torture… imho.
In a lot of places in the USA, more than just the first stop is important. There are many places that an extra 50-100 miles of range will make the difference between making it to the next charger or not. Also in the heat of the summer or cold of the winter, it could make a big difference. Then there's the whole towing argument. With the lightning, getting 1 m/kWh towing a boat or camper, you're looking at 70-100 miles range. There's a lot of places that isn't going to make it. Get double that and not only are you going to make it between chargers in more places, but the faster potential charging with 350kw is going to cut down total charging time.
You use the term “cost to fill” way too loosely. Cost to fill literally means how much to fill it up. To throw your own example back at you, while the price per gallon of fuel is the same regardless of your miles per gallon, the size of the tank determines your cost to fill. A Prius ain’t holding 35 gallons of fuel like my extended range ICE F150 tank did. The Prius is also probably going the same distance on 1/4 of the fuel. ??‍
What people also don’t realize is the extra 80 miles of range with the ER vs SR can literally cut cumulative charge times in half with current DCFC infrastructure. When I did a 2000 mile Colorado to Florida road trip the ABRP software predicted 16 hours of charge time for a SR truck and 8 hours of charge time for my ER truck and it nailed the prediction.
It will be interesting to see what Ford can do with the t3 and how efficient the cybertruck is. Right now, drivetrain and aero efficiency along with weight are the ways to get not range with the same capacity batteries. Ford has already said they aren't as interested in just throwing more battery into the vehicle to increase range.
Tesla already has more than enough data to show that similar batteries will have a much longer life than 10 years.
Oh I agree, the way I drive I'm looking at 20 years if you base it off the number of charge cycles. I'm just throwing out a number though, in ten years the tech should be advanced enough to maybe make it worthwhile to upgrade, plus the prices may have come down due to economies of scale. Who knows, I'll be happy either way.
With the low maintenance and longevity of these electric drivetrains, most BEV's are going to be far more functional after 10 years than many ICE vehicles. If someone truly uses their truck and puts 150-200K+ miles on it in 10 years, the EV is still going to be rocking along just fine even if the battery capacity has shrunk a bit under 80%. By then an ICE will almost certainly need serious transmission work and engine service and its efficiency won't be anywhere near 80% as good as it was new. ...Well, at least for most trucks I've owned, I'm usually out before 150K miles since I'll sell while there's still some value to be had and often much of the interior and the vehicle overall is worse for wear so I'm ready to move on. I know some baby their vehicles and spend all kinds of extra money on wraps/PPF, etc... I keep mine clean, I don't abuse it, but I also don't baby it along. I'm not keeping a show car. It's a tool, not a jewel...
Let’s assume that the SR and ER charge at the same 62kW rate (I know ER is capable of slightly faster charge rate than SR, but with CCS chargers so frequently derated, it doesn’t make any difference). The ER takes 30% more time to charge its larger pack, but the SR has extra charging stops- the difference in time is negligible (with all due respect to ABRP).
This is an example of different use cases and realities. Where I am and the type of road tripping I do, infrastructure is pretty sparse, but fairly reliable. The ER is huge for me for a couple reasons, but it definitely cuts total charge time.
