Can my solar array support my future F150 Lighting driving habits?

[CoolViper777]

My Total generation was:

Oct 2025 - 347.2 kWh (My system wasn't fully function most of the month, only 1/3rd panels working)
Nov 2025 - 404.2 kWh (The malfunction panels kept going partly into Nov as well). The solar installers had to take apart the system, and verify the plugged everything correctly and in phase.
Dec 2025 - 228.7 kWh
Jan 2026 - 221.3 kWh
Feb 2026 - 562.6 kWh
Mar 2026 - 268 kWh - so far

It does seem the estimates are a bit high. That's why I am adding another 4.4kW of panels, can never have too much solar power.

I hope I am wrong but seems like the production estimates might be high for Pittsburgh. Similar latitude to me in the NY Finder Lakes, similar weather too. Mine are ground mounted so perfect south direction and optimal pitch, roof determines these values and likely less than optimal.

This Dec I did 571 kWh, same as they estimate for you and I clean , off the snow if the forecast is for a day of sun, 6 years of data the Dec range is 571-770 kWh. Hope they are accurate, I certainly know you can't have more cloudily weather than I do.

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[Jiji]

3 miles / KWH is being VERY optimistic. The people who deal with seriously cold weather will drag the fleet average down a lot, but even here in southern California, my first year averaged just a hair over 2.3 mi / KWH.

You are correct about the 8000 KWH at the AC panel being ABOUT 7200 KWH to the batteries is about right.

I have two Mach-Es in the mix so my fleet average is better but it was just a number picked for easy math. Also I wrote the app to know exactly how my Ford EVs perform. This was downhill, the return was 2.6 mi/kWh.

Today, in freezing temps, the Lightning is averaging 1.9 mi/kWh over 4 trips:

 

[Jiji]

It does seem the estimates are a bit high. That's why I am adding another 4.4kW of panels, can never have too much solar power.

I think this winter was an especially lousy one, you will likely see better results in future years.

 

[K6CCC]

I have two Mach-Es in the mix so my fleet average is better but it was just a number picked for easy math. Also I wrote the app to know exactly how my Ford EVs perform. This was downhill, the return was 2.6 mi/kWh.

I was assuming you were talking about Lightnings.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I'm typically back home by 12pm to 1pm. So, assuming there is sun, I'd have at least 3, maybe 4 hours of charging time. Even if I come later, my excess get's sold back at the same price I pay for use from the grid, so that's makes my charging from grid doable as necessary.

Given what you’ve said, and if you have the option, consider installing all 4 kW of panels west-facing so you get a bump up in generation for the several hours when you’re home and charging.

 

[CoolViper777]

These will be mostly ground mounted, in my pool area, with a few on top of our pavilion. 6 or 7 will be south facing, with a couple west facing. They are bifacials, so that will help a teensy bit with generation as well. The more I think about it, I may do even more than 10, and maybe mount a few east facing, I'll play around with orientation a bit, as I can temp mount some of them. I want all the free energy I can get!

Given what you’ve said, and if you have the option, consider installing all 4 kW of panels west-facing so you get a bump up in generation for the several hours when you’re home and charging.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

These will be mostly ground mounted, in my pool area, with a few on top of our pavilion. 6 or 7 will be south facing, with a couple west facing. They are bifacials, so that will help a teensy bit with generation as well. The more I think about it, I may do even more than 10, and maybe mount a few east facing, I'll play around with orientation a bit, as I can temp mount some of them. I want all the free energy I can get!

I have a 14 kW system installed and 5 kW waiting for me to build the mount. They feed 64 kWh of battery array with another 24 kWh that need to be integrated.

Sometime this spring I'll remove my critical loads panel and just run everything from battery most of the time, including the Lightning and Mustang.

 

[Tfarrell73]

Are you using micro inverters? I have solaredge 6kw of dc panels with voltage optimizers South facing and a 5 kw inverter. My production in Northern IL is just under yours. I made 8.5 MWh last lear

 

[Zaptor]

Mine (24.32kw) would cover both of our trucks and our whole electrified house including heat, water (well/pump) and appliances... if not for my wife's 11,520 watt pottery kiln (intermittent)... and the pond pump (24/7)... and the 24 garden zones we water (also near 24/7 in summer) lol so we use a LOT of power, but *worth it* even if you don't cover every cent. We have 1:1 net metering and only have bills in Jan/Feb before we start making good power for the year again. I say GO FOR IT and NO REGRETS
-Zap

 

[tearitupsports]

My Total generation was:

Oct 2025 - 347.2 kWh (My system wasn't fully function most of the month, only 1/3rd panels working)
Nov 2025 - 404.2 kWh (The malfunction panels kept going partly into Nov as well). The solar installers had to take apart the system, and verify the plugged everything correctly and in phase.
Dec 2025 - 228.7 kWh
Jan 2026 - 221.3 kWh
Feb 2026 - 562.6 kWh
Mar 2026 - 268 kWh - so far

It does seem the estimates are a bit high. That's why I am adding another 4.4kW of panels, can never have too much solar power.

What a difference location makes. My 5kW system in Houston is producing the same or more than your 10kW system.

 

[daczone]

For Comparison:
I did a 15kW solar self install last year and it covers my Lightning and Tesla. Turnup was June 22nd. Didn't have a power bill until November. System products 115kW at peak during the summer. My electric bill was $450 a month. My Dec/Jan where full amounts and now I'm down to $230 this past month as it's getting some SUN (I live in Rainy Oregon). and my System is a EG4 and I have a 15kW Battery for emergency power.

 

[CoolViper777]

No, I have a Tesla Powerwall 3 inverter/battery system.

Are you using micro inverters? I have solaredge 6kw of dc panels with voltage optimizers South facing and a 5 kw inverter. My production in Northern IL is just under yours. I made 8.5 MWh last lear

 

[CoolViper777]

You are further south. So between more daylight in the winter, and less angle to the sun, you overall production should be more. Plus, my west facing panels don't produce as early as my south facing. But that was the only place to put 23 panels on the roof.

I will place my next 10 to 15 panels with better orientation, so that should increase production. But overall, I can't complain about my production this far north.

What a difference location makes. My 5kW system in Houston is producing the same or more than your 10kW system.

 

[Nwil10]

Pvvalue.gov is a good source to determine your annual kWh produced by the system. You input the system size, azimuth, pitch of roof, age of system, etc. and it will determine the amount your system produces.

It's used to determine the value of a PV system in real estate by determining the discounted cash flow of the array, which may be overkill but it does this by estimating the amount of juice your system produces.

One thing no one has said thus far is that you need to include typical degradation and derate factors as your system will produce less energy over the life of the panels. You'll need a slightly higher array if you want to make sure your array produces enough for years to come.

 

[chl]

10kW per second

Not a thing.

Power is an instantaneous rate quantity, it is the rate of energy transfer at a moment in time.

Power is a measure of the energy transfer rate in coulombs per second.
A coulomb is a large quantity of electrons, approx. 6.24 x 10^18, and in electricity, electrons are the charge carriers.

In our EV world, the battery stores energy expressed as power x time, e.g., power in kW and time in hours = kWh.
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Looking up Pittsburgh and a 10.8kW solar system:

A 10.8 kW solar system in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is estimated to produce approximately
12,000 to 14,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity per year, based on typical weather patterns and solar irradiance for the area.

Daily Output: On average, a system of this size can produce roughly 30-50 kWh per day, though this fluctuates heavily, with much lower production in winter and higher in summer.

Optimal Setup: To achieve the higher end of the production estimate, panels should be south-facing with a tilt angle close to the city's latitude.

https://ndcpartnership.org/knowledge-portal/climate-toolbox/pvwatts-calculator

To estimate your 10kW system’s production:

1. Find your location’s peak sun hours (use NREL’s PVWatts calculator)
2. Multiply system size by peak sun hours: 10kW × peak sun hours = daily kWh
3. Apply system derate factor: Daily kWh × 0.80 = realistic daily production
4. Calculate annual production: Daily kWh × 365 = annual kWh

When evaluating installer proposals, verify their production estimates using:

• NREL PVWatts Calculator: Free government tool with local weather data
• System Advisor Model (SAM): Advanced modeling software
• Aurora Solar: Professional design software (installer access)
• Helioscope: Industry-standard modeling platform

Production estimates should be within 5-10% of these validated tools.

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