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Hedging Decreasing Trade Value (and increased repair costs)

MVS87

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5/20 reservation holder with a small dealer in PA that has only had one lightning to date. My current 2014 STX with the sport package is losing trade value, causing me to lose patience with this process. At 108k miles it's starting to require some significant investment to keep it trade ready.

Wondering if anyone here has traded into something newer (or lightly used) to maintain equity that can be used for a Lightning trade in/down payment. Current truck is paid off and was hoping to get close to $20k for it last year but realistically more like $15k now. Would look to maintain that kind of equity with a trade and hopefully avoid the repair bills that are stacking up (even if it's at the expense of a year's worth of payments or so).

Thoughts?
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BennyTheBeaver

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My 2013 FX4 just dropped pretty substantially the past few months as well. I think the used market is cooling off...

I was going to trade mine in, now thinking I may need to sell private party to make up for the loss.
 

ChrisCon

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I think you would have to be an incredible wheeler /dealer to trade your current truck in for a used truck for just a few months and not lose equity/money off the trade as the newer one may depreciate at the same rate and you have to cover all of the fees. For me, just thinking about trying to make that work and come out ahead in a used car market that is cooling seems like an insurmountable task, but if it was me, I'd run a spreadsheet, a probabilistic model and then probably just stick with my current vehicle.

Slightly off topic here, but I traded in my 2016 f150 lightning with 130k miles, minor front and rear bumper damage and a work used interior for $22500 when I bought my lightning in June. I paid MSRP for my new truck and I'm friends with the owner of the dealership, but as an agreement to sell me at sticker, he wanted my truck as a trade in. I'm not sure if this is a bargaining tool for others at this point, but it was the one thing I conceded to in my deal.
 

bydabeach

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In NJ, since there is no sales tax on pure EVs, it makes no sense to trade in if the dealer does not give you more than you can get in a private sale. We have identified a couple of large used car dealers to sell our car and compare against what the dealer will give us in a trade. Have heard Car Max offers much higher price than some have been offered by dealers.
 

sotek2345

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I made a similar call back in January and traded my 2016 XLT for a 2017 Raptor since Raptors seem to hold their value much better. At the time I was figuring on getting a 2023 Lightning, but I got a shot to order in Wave 6. Getting the Lightning earlier than planned (hopefully soon - it is stilling at Dearborn), means that I will come out about even on it vs being ahead.

In this day and age it is truly a guessing game. Who knows what will happen to trade values over the next few months.
 

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Regular150

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My 21 Powerboost Platinum FX4 6.5' bed with 9,782 miles on it went from 67k in June to 67,5 when I trade on Friday. It is fully loaded, massage seats, 7.2k pro-power and no credits for options Ford doesn't have chips for today, it's loaded with no asterisks.

I checked Driveway, Carvana and CarMax and then and now and the dealer is the only one that went up.
We traded our MachE, 18 Platinum FX4 5.0;and 2020 Platinum Murano AWD to this same dealer so he knows the condition we keep our vehicles in with really zero he has to add through reconditioning. Granted, these vehicles are competing with scarce new vehicles that have increased in price. Just my experience.
 

greenne

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If I was in a similar situation and didn't care what I drove(purely a financial move) I would do the following--

Wait until Jan 1 and then buy a Chevy Bolt off the lot. Think about it-- MSRP has been lowered to $~26k for 2023 and the full $7500 tax credit comes into play(hopefully). That means you can get into a brand new car for less than $20k. Add any state tax credits plus gas savngs.

For what it is..the Bolt is the best deal out there right now.

Put a ton of miles on the thing...new EV so no repairs needed...You'll still sell for decent $$.
 

Fordskeptic

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^^^^^^^
Been thinking along the same lines as above, recently. Instead of replacing my truck with the Lightning. Replace the DD with a Bolt and keep my ice truck. I had no choice but to replace my old ice truck that died with a slightly less old ice truck earlier this year.
 

Yellow Buddy

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5/20 reservation holder with a small dealer in PA that has only had one lightning to date. My current 2014 STX with the sport package is losing trade value, causing me to lose patience with this process. At 108k miles it's starting to require some significant investment to keep it trade ready.

Wondering if anyone here has traded into something newer (or lightly used) to maintain equity that can be used for a Lightning trade in/down payment. Current truck is paid off and was hoping to get close to $20k for it last year but realistically more like $15k now. Would look to maintain that kind of equity with a trade and hopefully avoid the repair bills that are stacking up (even if it's at the expense of a year's worth of payments or so).

Thoughts?
I went the extreme opposite. I purchased a used Honda with over 200,000 miles on it for a couple thousand dollars - used market has been nuts - drove it for a year and it needed minimal repairs. When my truck came, I sold it for what I bought it for.

At that point it was one of two things. 1) It couldn’t get any cheaper. 2) If it did, I was limited on how much I would possibly lose.
 
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MVS87

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I went the extreme opposite. I purchased a used Honda with over 200,000 miles on it for a couple thousand dollars - used market has been nuts - drove it for a year and it needed minimal repairs. When my truck came, I sold it for what I bought it for.

At that point it was one of two things. 1) It couldn’t get any cheaper. 2) If it did, I was limited on how much I would possibly lose.
This has crossed my mind too. My current truck is in for a hefty repair bill today. Mechanically in good shape but wear and tear items are starting to go (shocks, cracked exhaust, and others). Even talked to a dealer yesterday about a dealer stock Lightning in the trim I wanted but they're charging 10k over sticker which prices out of the tax incentives unfortunately.
 

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PrivateJoker

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With interest rates going up, that will always decrease the price (resale values) of goods that typically involve financing for the majority of buyers.

With the Feds raising rates over the coming months, you will definately see resale values start to drop significantly. That's the entire point of raising rates to cool inflation.

Example:

  • $40,000 loan at 4% = $546.75 monthly
  • $40,000 laon at 8% = $623.45 monthly
So if a buyer wanted to maintain their payment below $ 550 a month in that scenario they'd have to pay $ 35,000 for that same truck.
 

greenne

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This has crossed my mind too. My current truck is in for a hefty repair bill today. Mechanically in good shape but wear and tear items are starting to go (shocks, cracked exhaust, and others). Even talked to a dealer yesterday about a dealer stock Lightning in the trim I wanted but they're charging 10k over sticker which prices out of the tax incentives unfortunately.
FWIW if the trim level/battery works for you I'd rethink $10k over. The MSRP increase is what $5-7k for most models MY22-23. Add to that the old tax credit which is more of a sure thing than the new version post Jan 1.(no income or battery component qualification).

If you can work with it, I'd give $10k ADM a second thought. (Can't believe I just said that..crazy world)
 

Yellow Buddy

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This has crossed my mind too. My current truck is in for a hefty repair bill today. Mechanically in good shape but wear and tear items are starting to go (shocks, cracked exhaust, and others). Even talked to a dealer yesterday about a dealer stock Lightning in the trim I wanted but they're charging 10k over sticker which prices out of the tax incentives unfortunately.
I thought as long as it's purchased this year, it still qualifies for the incentives? If so, that might be your solution right there as the incentives basically pays for the ADM.
 

greenne

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I thought as long as it's purchased this year, it still qualifies for the incentives? If so, that might be your solution right there as the incentives basically pays for the ADM.
All the dealer stock I've seen *so far* has been MY22. If that is the case, the MSRP should be MY22 MSRP. No incentives are needed...$10k above MY22 prices are just above MY23 and is a good deal IMO if you can get delivery soon.

Unless you can wait for the market to crash(which may still be another 12-18months away)..my thinking sooner is better as far as purchasing power. (MSRP, Interest rates will continue to go up in the short term)
 
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MVS87

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FWIW if the trim level/battery works for you I'd rethink $10k over. The MSRP increase is what $5-7k for most models MY22-23. Add to that the old tax credit which is more of a sure thing than the new version post Jan 1.(no income or battery component qualification).

If you can work with it, I'd give $10k ADM a second thought. (Can't believe I just said that..crazy world)
So the dealer called me today with this very offer. And dropped it to $5K ADM. Out the door still might be over $80k after tax and tags. Might still net better than the MY23 pricing. But do I still get the tax incentives if it's over 80 and I take delivery before the end of the year? I thought that $80k price was still relevant but dealer is saying it isn't as long as I take delivery before EOY.
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