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Will MY22 Lightnings be Unicorns?

FordLightningMan

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I'm curious if anyone else thinks there will be something special about the MY22 Lightnings, which will be dropped from future MYs? An example of this happening with other vehicles is the early Stealth Performance Tesla Model 3s. For a very brief period, the Performance trim was indistinguishable from the other Model 3s and these particular cars are sought after by Tesla enthusiasts. A few instances where MY22 Lightnings may be similar to this:

- For standard range vehicles, it sounds like there's a real possibility LFP will be used in MY23. There's some benefits to these batteries for sure, such as ability to charge to 100% and less degradation over time. But one instance these batteries aren't the same is performance. The SR and ER batteries in MY22 have a very similar 0-60, LFP on future SR trucks will widen the performance gap quite a bit. Might MY22 owners have their very own Stealth Performance models? It's very possible it will cost $10k+ more than the SRs are this year, to ever get this performance again.

- For extended range vehicles, the MY22s are coming with every feature imaginable. For example, ICE is losing max recline seats, but Lightning isn't. Might the MY23 Lightnings drop some features to allow for the ramp up in production?

The opposite surely could happen, maybe there will be a bunch or MY22 lemons or Android OS may eventually blow away the tech in MY22 due easier/more OTA updates. Also the subsequent refresh will almost certainly come along with faster charging and longer range. Despite this, I'm inclined to think the MY22 owners will have something of a unicorn on their hands.
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beatle

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A Pro ER that still has shiny paint may be significant since you couldn't buy one as a retail customer, and fleet customers are typically hard on their vehicles.
 

CoyoteJim

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If by unicorn you mean rapidly outdated technology and battery then yes..
We don't call them "outdated," we prefer the term "classic."
 
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FordLightningMan

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If by unicorn you mean rapidly outdated technology and battery then yes..
Unless more auto manufacturers being in the EV space pushes battery technology much faster than before, it's taken about 10 years to get an extra 80 miles squeezed into EVs at an affordable price. Sure you can get more range with more cost (i.e. - Lucid Air and Model S), but do we realistically expect a $60k EV, especially the size of a Lightning, to grow considerably in range in the next 5 years?

Charging speed is where things are really starting to change, but the charging infrastructure hasn't caught up yet. I imagine in five years there will be more fast charging EVs and finally more Level 3 chargers to accommodate them. As far as home charging, I don't ever expect a EV that doesn't need to charge overnight.
 

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gorwell

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, it sounds like there's a real possibility LFP will be used in MY23.

Zero chance. Farely purely floated the idea on a call that they where looking into it

And, lfp isn't exactly a game changer here. It's more of a cost saving.
 

PV2EV

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I could see some de-featuring of certain trims to hold down costs or work around supply or production constraints, but major changes like LFP on MY23 that starts production in 7 months when no one has MY22 yet would be high risk.
 

idahospud

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Yes, and i will be riding my unicorn into the sunset!⚡🦄☀
 

RDeFran

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All 2021 and 2022 cars will be "rare" just like recession era 08 to 10 are. Hopefully they wont have the materials issues 08 to 14 model cars (pistons, valves, timing chains, control units) all have. Rare does not mean desireable, at 15 years old they are all worthless.
 

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GDN

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It sounds as though the Android OS APIM could be reality, but once again I believe very little else will change on this truck for 3 years. Farley noted with Jay Leno it has taken 4 years to get this truck where it is. There will be no money spent on changes to the existing truck - WAY too expensive for such a small run of 20K to make a change for 2023 or 2024. All money is put into the next design to be built at the upcoming new factory.

If changes are made I expect maybe they allow the two tone paints, maybe allow a different color interior, a new exterior color, maybe allow B&O Unleashed to be added to the Lariat as an upgrade, a few things like that which are easy. More customizable, but nothing significant that would cost money to redesign.
 
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sotek2345

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It sounds as though the Android OS APIM could be reality, but once again I believe very little else will change on this truck for 3 years. Farley noted with Jay Leno it has taken 4 years to get this truck where it is. There will be no money spent on changes to the existing truck - WAY too expensive for such a small run of 20K to make a change for 2023 or 2024. All money is put into the next design to be built at the upcoming new factory.

If changes are made I expect maybe they allow the two tone paints, maybe allow a different color interior, a new exterior color, maybe allow B&O Unleashed to be added to the Lariat as an upgrade, a few things like that which are each. More customizable, but nothing significant that would cost money to redesign.
They might do something to spice up the '25 model to keep it selling after they announce the Gen 2, but beyond that I agree with you. Mainly software changes or changes that reduce manufacturing cost (like the cooling loop redesign for the Mach-e).

Oh - and I suspect they will get any interior changes that the ICE F-150 gets (if any).
 
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FordLightningMan

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Tesla has been able to swap in LFP pretty easily... or maybe they just make something very difficult look easy. When Rivian is going to hit 50% of its forecasted production and Tesla is turning to LFP in order to keep numbers up, you have to wonder how Ford is going to hit it's 150k figure with battery supplies so tight.

I seem to be an outlier, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ford migrates SR to LFP before the gen 2 redesign. It's likely either that, miss production numbers, or charge significantly more for the next model year so they can procure more batteries. We are still several years from large battery makers opening up their new U.S. factories and being able to output at any meaningful number.
 

maverick92

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The only thing I see for MY23 is a large increase in MSRP across the board (~$5k or more). Ford cared way too much about the PR of announcing a $40k Lightning Pro and then barely made any available for retail customers (likely because they are selling them at a loss). Raw material costs are way up, especially metals like nickel that are required in their current battery chemistry.
 

Mr. Flibble

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It sounds as though the Android OS APIM could be reality, but once again I believe very little else will change on this truck for 3 years. Farley noted with Jay Leno it has taken 4 years to get this truck where it is. There will be no money spent on changes to the existing truck - WAY too expensive for such a small run of 20K to make a change for 2023 or 2024. All money is put into the next design to be built at the upcoming new factory.

If changes are made I expect maybe they allow the two tone paints, maybe allow a different color interior, a new exterior color, maybe allow B&O Unleashed to be added to the Lariat as an upgrade, a few things like that which are each. More customizable, but nothing significant that would cost money to redesign.
I think you are absolutely right. The refresh for the F-150 IIRC was due for 2025, and my guess is that the Lightning will be along side that. Migration away from Sync 4 to Android Auto makes sense because they can leverage Google's cloud features to enhance the driving experience for locating active chargers. It makes a lot of sense to use SASS for certain software - like Gmail for corporate email. It is less expensive than maintaining an Outlook team. Same goes for Android Auto - a large amount of the back end work is constantly updated by a third party, whereas Sync 4 is a QNX engine with fewer updates.

Android Auto will offer Ford more features for, what I expect will also be a lower price point per unit.

There may be some minor spot changes here and there as various things are worked out, but likely no major changes for some time.
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