Pro & XLT trims closed already??? (As of 9/8/2022)

[ivan256]

This is absolutely ridiculous. 5/19 reservation, still no invite to order, and now I’m priced out and can’t even defer my reservation when and if I get an invite to order.

Don't worry about it too much. Everybody is going to get an invite for 2023, because the take rate at $89k is going to be below 50%. Even if people could buy them to flip, it's unlikely that the majority of reservation holders are going to be able to finance a $90k truck in order to do that. Once interest rates pass 4.5% even a 60 month loan will be out of reach for the median borrower with a 700+ credit score. Unless the 200,000 reservation holders are all wealthy with excellent credit or piles of cash there is no way we're all buying a Lariat, even to flip.

The 2024s will not be spoken for in advance, so dealers will have significantly less leverage to mark them up. So you can just go buy one off the lot when the 2024s start delivering. Depending on the economy you'll be able to find one either at a small markup or at a discount. If shortages are alleviated and interest rates continue to go up at the expected pace I'd put money on the latter.

Or you can get a lightly used 2022 come spring of 2024.

Or I'll be completely wrong and unemployment will stay zero, interest rates will go back down, chip shortages will still be here, and trucks will cost $120k in 2024. But you'll have been spared buying a $90k truck when a $50k truck is more than adequate and you'll need the money for food. No matter what it's all good.

(I'm in the same boat as you, BTW.)

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[BennyTheBeaver]

Don't worry about it too much. Everybody is going to get an invite for 2023, because the take rate at $89k is going to be below 50%. Even if people could buy them to flip, it's unlikely that the majority of reservation holders are going to be able to finance a $90k truck in order to do that. Once interest rates pass 4.5% even a 60 month loan will be out of reach for the median borrower with a 700+ credit score. Unless the 200,000 reservation holders are all wealthy with excellent credit or piles of cash there is no way we're all buying a Lariat, even to flip.

The 2024s will not be spoken for in advance, so dealers will have significantly less leverage to mark them up. So you can just go buy one off the lot when the 2024s start delivering. Depending on the economy you'll be able to find one either at a small markup or at a discount. If shortages are alleviated and interest rates continue to go up at the expected pace I'd put money on the latter.

Or you can get a lightly used 2022 come spring of 2024.

Or I'll be completely wrong and unemployment will stay zero, interest rates will go back down, chip shortages will still be here, and trucks will cost $120k in 2024. But you'll have been spared buying a $90k truck when a $50k truck is more than adequate and you'll need the money for food. No matter what it's all good.

(I'm in the same boat as you, BTW.)

Good write-up! Sorry in advance for the long response

I respectfully disagree with some of what you wrote.

First, that poster should worry because their reservation is going to be cancelled if they didn't want a Lariat or Platinum (which based on his issue with not being able to defer seems to be the boat he's in).

Second, Ford is not going to get through all the reservations in MY23 (not building enough trucks). So some of the later reservation holders will most likely get first dibs on the MY24 Pro and XLT as Ford finishes getting through reservations.

Third, you better believe dealers are going to mark up Lightnings on their lot, the ones with the highest percentage of markup will be the Pro and XLT SR. The demand for MY24 XLT SR and Pro will be high because a lot of people that are having their reservations cancelled will still want to buy these. Next summer or fall when they open up MY24 there still won't be competition for the Pro/XLT SR on the market.

As an example, my dealer, who is rated as a top dealer in my ZEV state just told me in writing that any customer order (aka reservation conversion) will get MSRP pricing. Due to demand though (and a general lack of inventory I imagine) they will be marking up all dealer stock Lightnings that they get on lot.

Just because the full allotment of MY24 won't be spoken for in advance, doesn't mean the demand will be less. Remember all these people are having their reservations cancelled and still may want a Pro/XLT SR as there still won't be a competitor at that time.

Also, there are a ton of people who have seen what the Lightning is now but were unable to reserve because they closed the reservations.

 

[ivan256]

Good write-up! Sorry in advance for the long response

I respectfully disagree with some of what you wrote.

First, that poster should worry because their reservation is going to be cancelled if they didn't want a Lariat or Platinum (which based on his issue with not being able to defer seems to be the boat he's in).

What good will that do them?

Second, Ford is not going to get through all the reservations in MY23 (not building enough trucks). So some of the later reservation holders will most likely get first dibs on the MY24 Pro and XLT as Ford finishes getting through reservations.

Ford has already stated that they expect to get through all the reservations by next summer. If they get to 90,000 total trucks built by the end of the 2023 run it seems pretty plausible that they will be either out of reservations or pretty damned close.

Even if they do have a few left running into the 2024 model year, if they ramp production at the rate they intend that still means there will be more 2024s than the 2023s and 2022s combined, and most of them won't be reserved

Third, you better believe dealers are going to mark up Lightnings on their lot, the ones with the highest percentage of markup will be the Pro and XLT SR. The demand for MY24 XLT SR and Pro will be high because a lot of people that are having their reservations cancelled will still want to buy these. Next summer or fall when they open up MY24 there still won't be competition for the Pro/XLT SR on the market.

I completely expect that most dealers will mark these trucks up as much as the market allows.

However the amount the market will allow will be much lower when dealers are competing with each other on inventory in the thousands, compared to now when the open-market trucks are onesy-twosies. Some dealers will hold out for big bucks. Some dealers will settle for a quick sale at a couple grand over. And that's IF people are still buying. If interest rates go to 7, 8, or even 10%, and Ford builds mostly Lariats and up they will not sell out.

I don't think that will happen though. They're smart. They'll shift production into XLTs - which is the most popular F-150 trim by a mile - as soon as they've shaken out all the people who are willing to stretch their budget when faced with the prospect of losing their place in line.

Also, there are a ton of people who have seen what the Lightning is now but were unable to reserve because they closed the reservations.

I love the truck. I test drove the truck. I have an early reservation. And I have the luxury of being able to pay cash. But I'm not buying a $90k truck. It's not worth it. And there are tons of people like me too.

The hype is based on a $40k sticker. I don't believe that things will remain the same when there are hundreds of thousands of these trucks rather than tens.

If I'm wrong... well this post will still be here in 18 months. Feel free to come rub it in. I'm not going to make irrational financial decisions based on potential hype though. And I don't think the person I originally responded to should lose much sleep over it either.

 

[ivan256]

Incidentally, if you're really worried, call and transfer your reservation to a low-volume dealer with no allocations. That's really your only hope for defering.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

What good will that do them?

Won't do them any good, but people that were expecting to order a Pro that are having their reservation cancelled may be SOL until 2025. That will bother some of these Day 1 reservation holders.

Ford has already stated that they expect to get through all the reservations by next summer. If they get to 90,000 total trucks built by the end of the 2023 run it seems pretty plausible that they will be either out of reservations or pretty damned close.

That's great news! Source?

Also, assuming that is the case, they are getting through their reservations by cancelling everyone that wanted a Pro or XLT. That doesn't change demand for those trucks.

I completely expect that most dealers will mark these trucks up as much as the market allows.

However the amount the market will allow will be much lower when dealers are competing with each other on inventory in the thousands, compared to now when the open-market trucks are onesy-twosies.

New vehicles are not sitting on lots for a long time, chip shortages still exist though they should start to alleviate next year. There will not be thousands of available inventory within competitive markets.

I don't think that will happen though. They're smart. They'll shift production into XLTs - which is the most popular F-150 trim by a mile - as soon as they've shaken out all the people who are willing to stretch their budget when faced with the prospect of losing their place in line.

This is not true at all. Yes, the XLT on the ICE version is the most popular...however, the XLT Lightning is the least popular trim. The people buying the XLT SR are often doing so (as shown by multiple posters, with the exception of a single member on this forum) because the Pro is unavailable. The XLT ER is so close in price to the Lariat ER that is also isn't as popular. The only way the XLT SR becomes desirable is if they discontinue the Pro model for consumers.

I love the truck. I test drove the truck. I have an early reservation. And I have the luxury of being able to pay cash. But I'm not buying a $90k truck. It's not worth it. And there are tons of people like me too.

The hype is based on a $40k sticker. I don't believe that things will remain the same when there are hundreds of thousands of these trucks rather than tens.

Ford is having ZERO problems moving these trucks. The demand is going to outpace supply for years. Especially as all the reviews keep pouring in raving about the F-150 Lightning and more people gain awareness and get to test drive it. True a $90k truck is not worth it to a lot of people. Those people want the Pro and (due to low availability of the Pro) the XLT SR. Which is why the demand will remain high for both of those and dealers will mark them up the highest (percentage wise).

If I'm wrong... well this post will still be here in 18 months. Feel free to come rub it in. I'm not going to make irrational financial decisions based on potential hype though. And I don't think the person I originally responded to should lose much sleep over it either.

If that happens...I wouldn't come back and rub anything in. Just not my style, just having a cordial discussion and speculating on the future. That's all.

I have posted several times on this forum not to let Ford bully you into a financial decision you're not comfortable with. I'm definitely not implying people should buy any available truck due to FOMO. Heck, I waited for the Pro when I was Wave 2 or 3 for MY22...I had no guarantee on pricing/availability. Ford didn't bully me into making a decision based on FOMO.

That person shouldn't lose sleep, no argument there, but they are completely justified in being pissed at an unfair system (even if nothing was guaranteed).

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

I answered the survey that I was only interested in the Pro. However, I still was invited to order in Wave 3 despite Pro's being sold out. I won't be happy if I can't simply wait for a Pro to become available in MY24.

Seems like the surveys were purely for Ford's Marketing and Strategy department and have no relation to actions for MY23 invitees.

Unfortunately, based on the little communication Ford has given (including the FAQ on their website), if you don't order by the end of September your reservation will be cancelled and your deposit will be refunded.

Horrible horrible policy by Ford. No excuse. They have to be losing money on the Pro's and are trying to flush out the reservation system.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

Incidentally, if you're really worried, call and transfer your reservation to a low-volume dealer with no allocations. That's really your only hope for defering.

Or, and I get that this seems very counter intuitive, transfer your reservation to a high volume dealer and request to be placed near the end of the line. Then you won't be invited to order a MY23 when the Pro's and XLT's are sold out, and hopefully you can order a MY24 Pro or XLT.

 

[metroshot]

This really is crappy. I was a 5/19 reservation and i did get the invitation to order. I ordered a Lariat Extended Range and the estimated MSRP is over $89,000. I'm honestly blown away. I know everything is more expensive now, but there are a TON of options at that price point. It's wild. And so if people can't get an XLT or Pro, they either have to settle for Standard Range and pay over 70k or they have to get in that 85k+ zone for a pickup that can't tow a camper 200 miles without recharging.

I don't fault Ford for charging a lot for premium trims, but I do fault Ford for completely failing to deliver any reasonable volume of trucks for under 60K after rebates.

I've been having a lot of heartburn over choosing the Extended range Lariat. If I made enough compromises I could maybe get a Lariat standard range under the $80K cap and still get the tax rebate. Hard to feel like the extended range and the bells and some of the other add ons are worth more than a $15,000 difference.

Don't get upset, but the way I view your current 2023 order situation:

Since you live in cold weather area (UT), the winter range hit will be serious and you may end up with a non towable Lightning and be very upset.

Instead of forcing your camper onto a Lightning where we all have known about range loss - keep your 2019 ICE for towing that it was meant for.

And if you can keep both trucks, consider buying the SR Lariat which is much lower cost and tax credit eligible.

Just don't expect it to replace your ICE truck because EV has not achieved higher efficiencies.

Or you can wait for the Silverado EV WT or Dodge RAM EV and see what they offer....

 

[jb56]

Don't get upset, but the way I view your current 2023 order situation:

Since you live in cold weather area (UT), the winter range hit will be serious and you may end up with a non towable Lightning and be very upset.

Instead of forcing your camper onto a Lightning where we all have known about range loss - keep your 2019 ICE for towing that it was meant for.

And if you can keep both trucks, consider buying the SR Lariat which is much lower cost and tax credit eligible.

Just don't expect it to replace your ICE truck because EV has not achieved higher efficiencies.

Or you can wait for the Silverado EV WT or Dodge RAM EV and see what they offer....

Has anyone here tried to change their order from one battery to another?

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

Has anyone here tried to change their order from one battery to another?

I'm not sure it's quite as simple as a single line item. The XLT ER has seemingly alot of required packages over the XLT SR which brings it's price close to the Lariat ER.

Like you, I also wonder if it's possible and if people have done it.

 

[metroshot]

Has anyone here tried to change their order from one battery to another?

Yes, before it goes into production (well after the VIN has been issued, build and blend date), you can change almost anything.

Have your dealer make the changes.

You may want to price out the SR Lariat with the options you want and see if the MSRP is less than $80K.

I know it's tough since the price increase.

 

[jb56]

Yes, before it goes into production (well after the VIN has been issued, build and blend date), you can change almost anything.

Have your dealer make the changes.

You may want to price out the SR Lariat with the options you want and see if the MSRP is less than $80K.

I know it's tough since the price increase.

Unfortunately I didn't see the income cap. So I think my household is disqualified from the credit anyway

 

[ivan256]

That's great news! Source?

Also, assuming that is the case, they are getting through their reservations by cancelling everyone that wanted a Pro or XLT. That doesn't change demand for those trucks.

It was in the survey email.

New vehicles are not sitting on lots for a long time, chip shortages still exist though they should start to alleviate next year. There will not be thousands of available inventory within competitive markets.

Yes. But that's why I'm talking about the 2024 model year.

This is not true at all. Yes, the XLT on the ICE version is the most popular...however, the XLT Lightning is the least popular trim. The people buying the XLT SR are often doing so (as shown by multiple posters, with the exception of a single member on this forum) because the Pro is unavailable. The XLT ER is so close in price to the Lariat ER that is also isn't as popular. The only way the XLT SR becomes desirable is if they discontinue the Pro model for consumers.

These trucks are sold out right now. The trim distribution is whatever Ford builds.

I don't disagree with you about desire. But with interest rates going up I just don't see there being a large enough market that can finance a truck that expensive. Things got crazy over the last 6 years and we're in a massive vehicle price bubble. People have been able to finance vehicles that they really can't afford because the interest rate and depreciation were low. And it's been happening for long enough that we're starting to think of $80k+ as a normal price to pay for a vehicle. Now, however, we're about to enter a period where depreciation is normal and interest rates are unusually high. The market for >$40k vehicles is going to shrink massively. Loans are already pushing 8% if you don't have great credit.

There will be way more people who want an F-150 Lightning than there will be trucks. But if they're all Lariats and the bank won't loan people that much money....

 

[LFD81]

this video pretty much sums up how reservation holders such as myself are getting screwed

 

[davehu]

this video pretty much sums up how reservation holders such as myself are getting screwed

offering a good, better, and best model is and has been standard marketing practice with every product from baby food to automobiles. if you can't get what you want, get your $100 back.

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