Estimates on 2022 lightning resale value in 2 years?

[JSJ]

I’m considering getting out of my lightning for several reasons but I’m curious what everyone thinks a 2022 Lightning Lariat Standard range with ford copilot 360 active 2.0 (msrp 72k) will be worth in 2 years? Think above or below 50k? If below which is what I’m thinking, I will be trading my lightning in on a 2 year lease that saves me $350/month, so I need the lightning to be worth 50k or more for the lease to not make sense.

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[astricklin]

June 2022, Ford was using 50% as the residual on the Ford options plan for 36 months. Nobody knows now exactly what it will be worth. What price points will be available for the Chevy trucks at that point? Will the RAM be in production? Will Ford have announced full specs for the gen 2 truck? Will Toyota shock everyone with a Bev Tacoma by then?

 

[astricklin]

Historically, Tesla vehicles have enjoyed high resale values, while most BEVs have had relatively low ones. Where the lightning will fall is anyone's guess. What we do know is that Ford is going to over double monthly production by the end of this year. What we don't know is if this will outpace demand or not. If it does, and Ford wants to keep up production levels without too many vehicles sitting unsold, then prices will come down.

 

[F150ROD]

$30k tops

 

[Grumpy2]

After the Ford-Tesla agreement, and the recent suggested next generation changes planned by Ford, you may be surprised how much resale value you will have from folks wanting an electric work truck. Also inflation will drive up the new vehicle prices for the near future. The IRA will continue to make the $79k price available for some sort of truck, but will it be equal to what you have now?

 

[JSJ]

Here’s my dilemma, in 2 years my payout will be approximately 42k. I can sell my lightning now and get a lease (GC 4xe) for 24 months at $350/month, my payment is $700 currently. So that’s over 8k savings in 2 years, therefore I’d need the lightning to be worth 50k in 2 years, if it’s less, it’s better for me to trade it in on the lease, if it’s more than it’s better to keep the lightning. I highly doubt my 2022 lariat standard range will be worth 50k come June 2025, right?

 

[Tony Burgh]

52.35% of the equivalent vehicle is in 2025.
But that’s just a wildass guess.

 

[astricklin]

Here’s my dilemma, in 2 years my payout will be approximately 42k. I can sell my lightning now and get a lease (GC 4xe) for 24 months at $350/month, my payment is $700 currently. So that’s over 8k savings in 2 years, therefore I’d need the lightning to be worth 50k in 2 years, if it’s less, it’s better for me to trade it in on the lease, if it’s more than it’s better to keep the lightning. I highly doubt my 2022 lariat standard range will be worth 50k come June 2025, right?

However, at the end of this time period, if you keep the lightning, you will still have it and can continue using it. If you move to a lease, not so much. Also are you factoring in the down payment as a cost of the lease?

 

[detansinn]

Do what makes sense for you financially. No one has a crystal ball here.

IMHO, I think that the Lightning will depreciate like any other F150. There’s no huge battery breakthrough on deck anytime soon. It’s looking like Ford is going unibody with the T3. So, our Lightnings will be special in some respects.

 

[Texas Dan]

I sold my 2019 Kia Niro EV six months after buying out my lease. I sold the Kia for 30% more than the residual value of the lease. The point is that modern EV are holding their value much better than earlier generation EVs and much of that has to do with reported durability of the modern batteries.

 

[astricklin]

I sold my 2019 Kia Niro EV six months after buying out my lease. I sold the Kia for 30% more than the residual value of the lease. The point is that modern EV are holding their value much better than earlier generation EVs and much of that has to do with reported durability of the modern batteries.

Ya but between 2019 and now the whole world flipped upside down. Pretty much any vehicle you bought in 2019 has held it's value way better than in the past.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I worked for CarMax for many years. They understand resale market extremely well. I have been tracking 2022 prices with them. Lightning are doing very well. This is only 1 model year old but is selling over original retail price. They are turning and CarMax does not negotiate so they are selling for what they are listing.

https://www.carmax.com/car/23986212


2022 Ford F150 Lightning XLT
$67,998*6K miles

 

[JSJ]

However, at the end of this time period, if you keep the lightning, you will still have it and can continue using it. If you move to a lease, not so much. Also are you factoring in the down payment as a cost of the lease?

Whatever equity I have in the lightning is my down payment, I’m trading the lightning in, no cash due at signing, so the lightning has to be worth 50k to match this deal.

There’s no way I’d keep the lightning past 2 more years, once my cybertruck or Ram Rev is available, I’ll be making that switch to a 500+ mile range truck. I’m really not a fan of the lightning after owning it for 7 months now and my needs have changed where I need a vehicle that can tow 4000lbs 250 miles preferably.

It’s looking like the lease is a better option financially, the Lightning’s value in the future is too unstable and with a lease, I know exactly where I’ll be at in 2 years.

 

[astricklin]

Whatever equity I have in the lightning is my down payment, I’m trading the lightning in, no cash due at signing, so the lightning has to be worth 50k to match this deal.

There’s no way I’d keep the lightning past 2 more years, once my cybertruck or Ram Rev is available, I’ll be making that switch to a 500+ mile range truck. I’m really not a fan of the lightning after owning it for 7 months now and my needs have changed where I need a vehicle that can tow 4000lbs 250 miles preferably.

It’s looking like the lease is a better option financially, the Lightning’s value in the future is too unstable and with a lease, I know exactly where I’ll be at in 2 years.

It sounds like you already made up your mind.

The likelihood that the lightning will be worth more in the future than it is today is extremely slim.

If you're unhappy with the vehicle and it isn't meeting your needs then sell it for the best price you can get and move on.

 

[COrocket]

I think original Lightning resales are going to be a wildcard. If inflation goes unchecked and 10% MSRP bumps across brands keep happening, the truck is gonna be worth a lot more than $50k in a few years when everything equivalant new is selling for $100k+

On the other hand, if inflation/supply chain constraints calm down and Chevy/others can actually hit their price targets and really come out with a 350 mile truck for $40-50k, then obviously the value of used Lightnings is going to absolutely plummet as the tech rapidly becomes more advanced and affordable.

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