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PungoteagueDave

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I didn’t exactly intend to vouch for Tesla’s abilities to deliver a specific truck, but to just state Teslas consistent and current promise.

And while I share certain of your skepticisms, I’m not as confident as you in Tesla’s lack of seriousness in their promises.

Afterall, I live “down the street” from a gigafactory that at 60mph on the freeway takes a full 60 seconds to pass, which as recently as this week was having giga-press equipment delivered.

seems like if Tesla’s not building that truck eventually, nobody’s told them yet



obviously, “aerodynamic” is intended as a relative term. The CT is not the most aerodynamic truck (0.39 drag coefficient), compared to eg the Rivian (0.30), but the Rivian is a mid-sized truck and as a full-sized truck the CT is considerably more aerodynamic than the F150L (0.49).

All else equal, a vehicle with a dc of 0.39 will have materially better range than one with a dc of 0.49, especially at the speeds like the ones the EPA uses to arrive at the hwy ratings we’re all here using to compare.

at the end of the day you seem far more invested in whether or not Tesla ever delivers a CT, and I couldn’t really care less and happy to concede to your confidence
confidence comes from simple math and science. And Elon saying that it would cost over $125k to build the specification that was originally presented, so adjustments were being made. What adjustments are obvious. See Rivain's rolling train wreck of a business plan.

 

sotek2345

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I didn’t exactly intend to vouch for Tesla’s abilities to deliver a specific truck, but to just state Teslas consistent and current promise.

And while I share certain of your skepticisms, I’m not as confident as you in Tesla’s lack of seriousness in their promises.

Afterall, I live “down the street” from a gigafactory that at 60mph on the freeway takes a full 60 seconds to pass, which as recently as this week was having giga-press equipment delivered.

seems like if Tesla’s not building that truck eventually, nobody’s told them yet



obviously, “aerodynamic” is intended as a relative term. The CT is not the most aerodynamic truck (0.39 drag coefficient), compared to eg the Rivian (0.30), but the Rivian is a mid-sized truck and as a full-sized truck the CT is considerably more aerodynamic than the F150L (0.49).

All else equal, a vehicle with a dc of 0.39 will have materially better range than one with a dc of 0.49, especially at the speeds like the ones the EPA uses to arrive at the hwy ratings we’re all here using to compare.

at the end of the day you seem far more invested in whether or not Tesla ever delivers a CT, and I couldn’t really care less and happy to concede to your confidence
Do you have a source for those drag coefficients? I haven't seen anything official and the Lightning and Rivian seem to do about the same on range tests (small advantage Rivian).
 

cvalue13

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Do you have a source for those drag coefficients? I haven't seen anything official and the Lightning and Rivian seem to do about the same on range tests (small advantage Rivian).
as good as source as any (meaning the obvious I hope - that is, claims that it’s not aerodynamic appear to be based on less *shrug*)

The CT is more slippery for obvious reasons (it doesn’t exist), and ignoring EM’s tweets that the final vehicle will be Cd if 0.3, there’be been various studies that bring it in around or just below .4/.39 (which are what EM has tweeted in response to)

Tesla Cybertruck electric pickup surprises in aerodynamic performance simulation (via Electrek) “
Now a new study of the Tesla Cybertruck’s aerodynamic performance shows that the electric pickup truck has a drag coefficient of about 0.39 Cd. Alex Lázaro Prat, a CFD Engineer for Numeric Systems, used the company’s aerodynamic simulation technology to produce the study that they released on LinkedIn. It’s important to note that Numeric Systems don’t have the final geometry of the Cybertruck, and therefore, it shouldn’t be completely representative of the final product.”

Tesla Cybertruck Aerodynamic Studies Point To Cd Of 0.4: Musk Says 0.3 (via InsideEV) “It was already an answer to an Interesting Engineering article precisely on how aerodynamically efficient the Cybertruck could be. We have also covered that study and another one, comparing the Cybertruck to the RAM and the Ford Raptor, but they keep showing up. Take this video above, for example. It was published at Engineering-Log.com along with an extensive study on the electric pickup truck aerodynamics. According to it, the Cybertruck would have around 0.427 of drag coefficient (cx). With rotating wheels, that number would fall to 0.387. It is definitely worth the read…. For as much competent as these airflow studies are, they lack the required info for precise measurement. The best ones will simply get close to the real number. And the best one will still be a guess, even if a very well-grounded one.”

The Rivian’s numbers come from interviews with Execs:

(via
Elektrek) “Rivian executives brag about its ultra-low .3 coefficient of drag that is more slippery than many sports cars and gives the vehicle an impressive 314-mile range.”

As for the F150L, I’ve seen sites list it as high as 5.6 but with unclear sources, and a simulation provider (similar to those doing the CT modeling) using a detailed 3D stating a 2021 F1-150 comes out to a drag coefficient of 0.463.

Finally, when the Gen14 F150 was released Ford made a big deal about it being it’s most aerodynamic truck ever made (prior to the release of the Lightning) at which point Ram swung back publishing data showing it to be the most aerodynamic full size truck, with a Cd of 0.36, which Ford never rebutted (so we can assume Ford’s isn’t lower🤷🏻‍♂️🤔)

Granted, the F150L has incorporated some additional aerodynamics features it’d seem, so an ICE F150 isnt a perfect comparison - but it’s pretty darn good guesstimate (esp given some models saying the ICE f150 is >0.49)

But again and most importantly, while the info above isn’t foolproof, it’s as least as good (and contrary) to any data suggesting the CT is not aerodynamic (relatively speaking) - of which I know not even bad data supporting

I don’t care the actual outcome, only the reliability of it
 

PiMatrix

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So you predict a reduce energy concentration and effectively shorter range. Tesla was forced into this (introduced lower density LFPs to some models) due to materials supply constraints in China and as an option on a couple U.S. models, but weight and range is everything with EVs. Especially tow vehicles. I don't see Ford regressing on battery tech, which is what your prediction portends.

You do highlight the ongoing struggle that we EV fans face - the battle between weight, cost, and range (battery capacity). It's a balancing act keeping the Cybertuck off the market for years beyond its intended roll-out, and will make its actual production reveal a shock to the market - because it will show a giant fail on at least one of the promised features. It's like an old boss once said: "We offer three things: Low Price, Quality and Speed. Pick any two." With EVs you can have Low Price, Long Range, and Low Weight. But you can only have one.
Well my comment on range is only if Ford does not do a redesign of the carriage. I assume on the SR Lightning today, even now they could put more of LFP batteries as there has to be alot of empty space using NMC, and still extend SR range at the same overall cost. Clearly weight has an immediate impact on range (e.g. Platinum vs Lauriet, and aerodynamics do as well. So I think if Ford were to do a redesign there are many levers they could pull. But the fastest cars produced will still be using NMC. My understanding is they packed the ER battery to gills and there is no extra room available. Personally I'd take less range for more performance but 320 miles is pretty darn good for a 0-60 in 3.8sec. Any faster and I think my wife won't drive with me ;)
 


PV2EV

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I would expect Ford to revise the areo and frame of the base F150, using that as the continuing F150 Lightning.
 

cvalue13

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I would expect Ford to revise the areo and frame of the base F150, using that as the continuing F150 Lightning.
One read of the news so far suggests it’s an all new truck platform, with all discussions by Ford conspicuously not saying F-150 but instead things like “F-series” (while explicitly saying it would not be a -240/350). And in any event, they’ve been if I remember correctly explicit that it is an BEV-only/specific frame that will not be shared with ICE trucks.
 

PungoteagueDave

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as good as source as any (meaning the obvious I hope - that is, claims that it’s not aerodynamic appear to be based on less *shrug*)

The CT is more slippery for obvious reasons (it doesn’t exist), and ignoring EM’s tweets that the final vehicle will be Cd if 0.3, there’be been various studies that bring it in around or just below .4/.39 (which are what EM has tweeted in response to)

Tesla Cybertruck electric pickup surprises in aerodynamic performance simulation (via Electrek) “
Now a new study of the Tesla Cybertruck’s aerodynamic performance shows that the electric pickup truck has a drag coefficient of about 0.39 Cd. Alex Lázaro Prat, a CFD Engineer for Numeric Systems, used the company’s aerodynamic simulation technology to produce the study that they released on LinkedIn. It’s important to note that Numeric Systems don’t have the final geometry of the Cybertruck, and therefore, it shouldn’t be completely representative of the final product.”

Tesla Cybertruck Aerodynamic Studies Point To Cd Of 0.4: Musk Says 0.3 (via InsideEV) “It was already an answer to an Interesting Engineering article precisely on how aerodynamically efficient the Cybertruck could be. We have also covered that study and another one, comparing the Cybertruck to the RAM and the Ford Raptor, but they keep showing up. Take this video above, for example. It was published at Engineering-Log.com along with an extensive study on the electric pickup truck aerodynamics. According to it, the Cybertruck would have around 0.427 of drag coefficient (cx). With rotating wheels, that number would fall to 0.387. It is definitely worth the read…. For as much competent as these airflow studies are, they lack the required info for precise measurement. The best ones will simply get close to the real number. And the best one will still be a guess, even if a very well-grounded one.”

The Rivian’s numbers come from interviews with Execs:

(via
Elektrek) “Rivian executives brag about its ultra-low .3 coefficient of drag that is more slippery than many sports cars and gives the vehicle an impressive 314-mile range.”

As for the F150L, I’ve seen sites list it as high as 5.6 but with unclear sources, and a simulation provider (similar to those doing the CT modeling) using a detailed 3D stating a 2021 F1-150 comes out to a drag coefficient of 0.463.

Finally, when the Gen14 F150 was released Ford made a big deal about it being it’s most aerodynamic truck ever made (prior to the release of the Lightning) at which point Ram swung back publishing data showing it to be the most aerodynamic full size truck, with a Cd of 0.36, which Ford never rebutted (so we can assume Ford’s isn’t lower🤷🏻‍♂️🤔)

Granted, the F150L has incorporated some additional aerodynamics features it’d seem, so an ICE F150 isnt a perfect comparison - but it’s pretty darn good guesstimate (esp given some models saying the ICE f150 is >0.49)

But again and most importantly, while the info above isn’t foolproof, it’s as least as good (and contrary) to any data suggesting the CT is not aerodynamic (relatively speaking) - of which I know not even bad data supporting

I don’t care the actual outcome, only the reliability of it
3.0 is still really high in EV terms. Not for trucks, but you still gotta punch that air aside. Tesla claims design spec will tow 14,000 pounds and have a 500-mile range when not towing. These things cannot happen with the tech they are applying. Slightly better aerodynamics on the tow vehicle do nothing for towing range after you hook up the trailer. Then is is ALL about the trailer format, and secondarily, its weight. And, of course, speed.
 

cvalue13

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3.0 is still really high in EV terms. Not for trucks, but you still gotta punch that air aside. Tesla claims design spec will tow 14,000 pounds and have a 500-mile range when not towing. These things cannot happen with the tech they are applying. Slightly better aerodynamics on the tow vehicle do nothing for towing range after you hook up the trailer. Then is is ALL about the trailer format, and secondarily, its weight. And, of course, speed.
No disagreement at all that the aerodynamics of the vehicle its self will do nothing for the arrow dynamics of what it is towing and resulting affects on range
 

Regular150

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The 2nd gen Lightning is going to blow this truck away as far as range and everything else battery related. Who knows if the overall value will be better though. I am sure that being built from the ground up to be an EV is going to help it out tremendously.
I would expect it too given it's Ground up redesign. I think these normal looking F-series BEV will be kind of a unique in that their isn't going to be all that many produced. Luckily everything from window motors to door hinges is available on millions of Gen 14 ICE trucks.
 

sotek2345

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I think the biggest change For next gen would be 800v architecture. Faster charging like with the Ioniq5 or EV6 makes range anxiety less of an issue.
Heck, go big! Leapfrog it. They have 4kv to 6kv MOSFETs in development. :p

 

 
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