Time to buy or wait?

[Tundra]

Sorry for the long post, I am trying to think things through:

Currently my wife and I have a 2012 Honda Civic (which just hit 200,000 this week), and a 2015 Ram 1500 diesel with a crew cab. We don’t owe anything on either vehicle. The car I have owned since new, it has been bullet proof and is quite fuel efficient, I see no reason it replace it anytime soon.

I LOVE my current truck… except I don’t trust the engine platform. I have owned it less than three years, and it has spent over 7 months in the shop! First time it was in for a for a warranty issue and the dealership wasn’t honest (they didn’t have diesel mechanic), during the minor work they broke a glow plug, and then stripped out a cylinder when they tried to replace that. At that point the whole engine needed to be replaced (Ram got me to a different dealership for that), it was not a fun experience. It has currently been in the shop for 4 months, due to a part shortage, theoretically I get it back next week, just glad this was not on my dime and they provided a rental this time. At this point warranty will be expired for everything, I do have a super competent (non-dealership) diesel shop I can take it to; but maintenance is not inexpensive, and this truck is going to be a lot easier to sell with everything in tip-top shape vs if something bricks down the road.

I originally bought my current truck to tow for work, but I have since switched careers and no longer need to tow. I have been interested in an electric truck and have been biding my several years now.

Currently the needs are:

1. Affordable (I don't want to pay more for "electric" it either needs to break even on cost or save us money).
2. Reliability (my current truck doesn't give me the warm fuzzies)
3. Carrying tools
4. Plywood/equipment hauling (stuff that fits in the bed)
5. Navigating deep snow (I live in a rural area, sometimes it can be 1-2ft deep drifts).
6. Commuting: Currently 50 miles roundtrip.
7. Larger family transport device
8. Ski/kayak transport
9. The occasional roadtrip (I have family that live about 14 hours away).

With the exception of road tripping it seems the lightning would fit our needs great, and except for maybe 1-2 trips a year the range would be more than enough. I drove a Lightning last week and enjoyed it. We have a large solar system on our house, and the garage has its own electrical panel, so dropping in a charger should be fairly easy.

The wife and I have decent jobs, but nothing incredible. We live within our means and except for the house and solar system (which pays for itself) we are debt free. While I don’t love the idea of vehicle payments, we could afford them on a $55k vehicle. With the recent price reduction and Fords low interest rate that puts a Lightning as a possibility. Factoring in fuel cost, maintenance, and insurance I believe it would save us about $300+ per month vs our current truck.

If we get a new vehicle we would be paying it off in 3-5 years, and I would want to be wanting to keep it long-term vs selling it in a few years (we cannot afford to be driving new vehicles all of the time). I am not at all opposed to used, especially if the price is right. At this point I am still on the fence, as I am looking for a long-term vehicle.

It seems to me that:

1. A lot more electric trucks are going to hit the market in the next 1-2 years, which may make pricing more competitive (will there be another drop?).
2. Solid-state batteries may be closer than not (it is my understanding that Toyota has at this point developed it but that they need to tool for it?).
3. Lightnings are going to become cheaper used (how long for cheaper than MSRP and $10k in tax credits???

So should I pursue this? Or should I wait a little longer?

Thanks for the advice!
Math

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[The Weatherman]

Lightnings are already cheaper than MSRP. Most dealers have them on the lot unsold. Plus the price just dropped $10k.

Now for the question now or wait……..only you can answer that question.

 

[eRockBoon]

On the new vs used thing:

just keep in mind with used you do not get the federal tax rebate like you would with new.

Also, I think the likelihood of a sub $50,000 electric trucks is going to be very low for the foreseeable future.

 

[TaxmanHog]

There is a thread recently posted of PRO-ER models available for sale, might fit your budget, go for the brass ring, otherwise you'll always by biding your time for the next great innovation (solid state mumbo jumbo), buy new if you want to have a chance at the federal [$7500} and state tax [?] credits

[/life coach]

https://www.fleetsideford.net/new-i...ing&year=2023&gvBodyStyle=Truck&fmccmp=t1-si;

 

[HammaHamma]

Things aren't going to get better economically and patience will pay off. Wait until tesla's lego truck releases and pulls what little wind remains from the lightning's sail. I'd wait around until ~Nov and see if ordering one for a ~Jan purchase date when the at-dealer rebate takes hold, if dealers don't end up wooing customers with better deals than ordering provides.

 

[eRockBoon]

That is what I did! I love my ER-Pro!

 

[Pioneer74]

There is a thread recently posted of PRO-ER models available for sale, might fit your budget, go for the brass ring, otherwise you'll always by biding your time for the next great innovation (solid state mumbo jumbo), buy new if you want to have a chance at the federal [$7500} and state tax [?] credits

[/life coach]

https://www.fleetsideford.net/new-i...ing&year=2023&gvBodyStyle=Truck&fmccmp=t1-si;

If those had the Tow Tech Package they would be perfect.

 

[Ventorum94]

I think that purchasing any Lightning without Adaptive Cruise Control/Lane Centering (not just Lane “Keeping”) is a decision likely to be regretted in a couple of years. Absent those features, the Pro and the base XLT are overpriced. Just saying.

 

[KevinC]

If those had the Tow Tech Package they would be perfect.

Like this one?

https://www.billknightford.com/new-Tulsa-2023-Ford-F+150+Lightning-Pro+Fleet-1FT6W1EV7PWG19351


Not sure if they are really available retail or not. Just seems like the ER pros are popping up in searches all the sudden. Not sure if anyone can get them, but worth a call i guess.

 

[TaxmanHog]

These PRO's might still be committed to the fleet order makers, can't hurt to ask.

 

[columbiaskier]

Sorry for the long post, I am trying to think things through:

Currently my wife and I have a 2012 Honda Civic (which just hit 200,000 this week), and a 2015 Ram 1500 diesel with a crew cab. We don’t owe anything on either vehicle. The car I have owned since new, it has been bullet proof and is quite fuel efficient, I see no reason it replace it anytime soon.

I LOVE my current truck… except I don’t trust the engine platform. I have owned it less than three years, and it has spent over 7 months in the shop! First time it was in for a for a warranty issue and the dealership wasn’t honest (they didn’t have diesel mechanic), during the minor work they broke a glow plug, and then stripped out a cylinder when they tried to replace that. At that point the whole engine needed to be replaced (Ram got me to a different dealership for that), it was not a fun experience. It has currently been in the shop for 4 months, due to a part shortage, theoretically I get it back next week, just glad this was not on my dime and they provided a rental this time. At this point warranty will be expired for everything, I do have a super competent (non-dealership) diesel shop I can take it to; but maintenance is not inexpensive, and this truck is going to be a lot easier to sell with everything in tip-top shape vs if something bricks down the road.

I originally bought my current truck to tow for work, but I have since switched careers and no longer need to tow. I have been interested in an electric truck and have been biding my several years now.

Currently the needs are:

1. Affordable (I don't want to pay more for "electric" it either needs to break even on cost or save us money).
2. Reliability (my current truck doesn't give me the warm fuzzies)
3. Carrying tools
4. Plywood/equipment hauling (stuff that fits in the bed)
5. Navigating deep snow (I live in a rural area, sometimes it can be 1-2ft deep drifts).
6. Commuting: Currently 50 miles roundtrip.
7. Larger family transport device
8. Ski/kayak transport
9. The occasional roadtrip (I have family that live about 14 hours away).

With the exception of road tripping it seems the lightning would fit our needs great, and except for maybe 1-2 trips a year the range would be more than enough. I drove a Lightning last week and enjoyed it. We have a large solar system on our house, and the garage has its own electrical panel, so dropping in a charger should be fairly easy.

The wife and I have decent jobs, but nothing incredible. We live within our means and except for the house and solar system (which pays for itself) we are debt free. While I don’t love the idea of vehicle payments, we could afford them on a $55k vehicle. With the recent price reduction and Fords low interest rate that puts a Lightning as a possibility. Factoring in fuel cost, maintenance, and insurance I believe it would save us about $300+ per month vs our current truck.

If we get a new vehicle we would be paying it off in 3-5 years, and I would want to be wanting to keep it long-term vs selling it in a few years (we cannot afford to be driving new vehicles all of the time). I am not at all opposed to used, especially if the price is right. At this point I am still on the fence, as I am looking for a long-term vehicle.

It seems to me that:

1. A lot more electric trucks are going to hit the market in the next 1-2 years, which may make pricing more competitive (will there be another drop?).
2. Solid-state batteries may be closer than not (it is my understanding that Toyota has at this point developed it but that they need to tool for it?).
3. Lightnings are going to become cheaper used (how long for cheaper than MSRP and $10k in tax credits???

So should I pursue this? Or should I wait a little longer?

Thanks for the advice!
Math

You mention snow and skiing so make sure you understand how much your range will degrade with low temperatures. In my opinion the standard range doesn’t have enough range for confidence sub zero temps on weekend ski trips.

Check what you are paying for electricity to see how much money you will save on charging vs. filling up. Where I lived the saving were substantial and covered the interest on the loan I took to get a Lighting ER.

 

[Tundra]

Thanks for all of the replies, I think I am in.

Lightnings are already cheaper than MSRP. Most dealers have them on the lot unsold. Plus the price just dropped $10k.

Now for the question now or wait……..only you can answer that question.

This is good to know. Most I have seen on lots around me are sitting, fully loaded for $80k+. I am curious how far below MSRP I could work it? What is the best anyone has heard of so far?

There is a thread recently posted of PRO-ER models available for sale, might fit your budget, go for the brass ring, otherwise you'll always by biding your time for the next great innovation (solid state mumbo jumbo), buy new if you want to have a chance at the federal [$7500} and state tax [?] credits

[/life coach]

https://www.fleetsideford.net/new-i...ing&year=2023&gvBodyStyle=Truck&fmccmp=t1-si;

Thanks for the link, that dealership is not crazy far from me, I will check in with them. For Tax credits potentially in addition to the federal there is a state for an additional $2,500... if it is below $55k though, so I am not positive if that is an achievable one. I am open to used, but obviously it would need to be $10k+ cheaper, and I am not sure if people are selling stuff that cheap yet.

Things aren't going to get better economically and patience will pay off. Wait until tesla's lego truck releases and pulls what little wind remains from the lightning's sail. I'd wait around until ~Nov and see if ordering one for a ~Jan purchase date when the at-dealer rebate takes hold, if dealers don't end up wooing customers with better deals than ordering provides.

This is a great point. I can work on selling my current truck now, which allow me to get what I want for it, and can wait. We can do without one until about mid December.

You mention snow and skiing so make sure you understand how much your range will degrade with low temperatures. In my opinion the standard range doesn’t have enough range for confidence sub zero temps on weekend ski trips.

Check what you are paying for electricity to see how much money you will save on charging vs. filling up. Where I lived the saving were substantial and covered the interest on the loan I took to get a Lighting ER.

Haha your point is true... however I live in flat minnesota (not real skiing!). We have season passes for a local place 30 minutes away and go once or twice a week.

Good to know on the cost, I pay .13 per KWH from my utility, but I also have a 48 panel solar system on my house. Should be much cheaper than diesel (and the involved maintenance).

 

[KevinC]

Like this one?

https://www.billknightford.com/new-Tulsa-2023-Ford-F+150+Lightning-Pro+Fleet-1FT6W1EV7PWG19351


Not sure if they are really available retail or not. Just seems like the ER pros are popping up in searches all the sudden. Not sure if anyone can get them, but worth a call i guess.

Gave them a call. They went and did a little bit of double checking but said they could sell it to the public. There did seem to be a little initial hesitation, so not sure if it would still be completely straightforward or not.

 

[Jseis]

We pay $.0634/KWh and I drive 90 miles a day so an MME or Lightning is a value prop ‘cause saving $4,000-$5,000 in gas over a 23 mpg Flex or Adrenalin.

The way I drive, MME mi/KWh converts to 120+ mpg and the Lightning converts to 80+ mpg. The only hybrid that could close was the Honda Insight. And that’s highway miles, not bopping around a 25 mph neighborhood where gas use goes up and electricity use goes down.

I know jobbers burning gas & diesel at $.50 mile (5$ gas and 10 mpg) driving 3/4 tons in town. Crazy.

Maverick hybrid at 40-50 mpg is a good rig but.. won’t tow my boat or cargo trailer.

 

[Surfnturf]

Where does electricity cost 6 cents? That's incredible.

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