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Blainestang

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Lightning might get 460 if you only drove in the city, and only downhill, and no load. That being said, I can see that in my case I could get 320-350 range with the bigger battery. Still I am ready to make a prediction that a year from now we'll see many threads here complaining that the range is only 230 and is it possible that Ford gave me the wrong battery.
Yeah, in some crazy hypermiling at a constant 20mph for 460 miles where aero drag is minimized, I'm sure it's possible.

But anyone thinking they're going to get ~460 miles under any type of remotely normal use case will be very disappointed.

I agree with your other points, too. I bet I'll beat EPA, too, because I have a 60mph or less commute, and then there will be people driving 80mph commutes in 20*F weather and wondering why their range is so low.
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Fordskeptic

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Any folks with real world experience with EVs want to weigh in on the following scenario in the future.

7 yr old Pro 150L level 2 charged to 90%, daily commute 50 miles each way, 40 of those at 70 mph, 10 miles at 40 mph. Winter, 20 degrees. Will such a truck make it back home with at least 10% charge?
 
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biers

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Any folks with real world experience with EVs want to weigh in on the following scenario in the future.

7 yr old Pro 150L level 2 charged to 90%, daily commute 50 miles each way, 40 of those at 70 mph, 10 miles at 40 mph. Winter, 20 degrees. Will such a truck make it back home with at least 10% charge?
Figure 15% degradation at 7 years. 195.5M
Charge to 90% =176
Winter = 35% penalty (10 for capacitance loss and 25 for resistanve heater) down to 115 miles.
If the lighting is similar to Mach e, EPA range will be pretty close to even at 70 mph.

These are pretty conservative worst case situations. I think you’ll be fine. If you want to be totally safe preheat before you leave and only use the seat warmer (aftermarket On Pro).
 

Blainestang

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Any folks with real world experience with EVs want to weigh in on the following scenario in the future.

7 yr old Pro 150L level 2 charged to 90%, daily commute 50 miles each way, 40 of those at 70 mph, 10 miles at 40 mph. Winter, 20 degrees. Will such a truck make it back home with at least 10% charge?
I think so. Even if you’ve lost 10% of your range by year 7, which is pretty safe, you’d still have 207 miles of range. I think you’ll probably get roughly EPA range for that commute (in good weather) because the 40 mph driving will offset the 70mph quite a bit. Assume 40% loss for winter, leaving you with 124 miles. You want 10% left, and 100 miles is 80% of 124 miles.

A few variables, of course: Tires. Replace the stock ones with less efficient and that hurts you. What’s your overnight parking situation? Can you pre-heat, pre-condition which would save energy while driving? Are you parked outside and cold soaking the battery? Could you have the car charge above 90% just before leaving, to say 95%? Charging it and using it right away isn’t going to hurt the battery much if necessary at year 6-7 or whatever. You could also save some range if you dropped your speed even 2-3 mph to 67mph if necessary.

Edit: biers beat me to it with very similar Estimates and variables!
 

Fordskeptic

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I think so. Even if you’ve lost 10% of your range by year 7, which is pretty safe, you’d still have 207 miles of range. I think you’ll probably get roughly EPA range for that commute (in good weather) because the 40 mph driving will offset the 70mph quite a bit. Assume 40% loss for winter, leaving you with 124 miles. You want 10% left, and 100 miles is 80% of 124 miles.

A few variables, of course: Tires. Replace the stock ones with less efficient and that hurts you. What’s your overnight parking situation? Can you pre-heat, pre-condition which would save energy while driving? Are you parked outside and cold soaking the battery? Could you have the car charge above 90% just before leaving, to say 95%? Charging it and using it right away isn’t going to hurt the battery much if necessary at year 6-7 or whatever. You could also save some range if you dropped your speed even 2-3 mph to 67mph if necessary.

Edit: biers beat me to it with very similar Estimates and variables!
Thanks Biers and Blaine
 

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7 yr old Pro 150L level 2 charged to 90%, daily commute 50 miles each way, 40 of those at 70 mph, 10 miles at 40 mph. Winter, 20 degrees. Will such a truck make it back home with at least 10% charge?
Pro with 230 miles range would be too risky, the best scenario is you arrive home with NO buffer, or you have to lower speed and turn off heating.

Why? 7 year old means close to 10% capacity lose, 70mph means +10-15% electricity usage, 20F means 20% range lose, and heating means 2-5% range lose (if there is no traffic). So expect ~40% of claimed range if you only use 10-90% battery capacity.

In your case, get ER, don't get SR.
 

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Pro with 230 miles range would be too risky, the best scenario is you arrive home with NO buffer, or you have to lower speed and turn off heating.

Why? 7 year old means close to 10% capacity lose, 70mph means +10-15% electricity usage, 20F means 20% range lose, and heating means 2-5% range lose (if there is no traffic). So expect ~40% of claimed range if you only use 10-90% battery capacity.

In your case, get ER, don't get SR.

My take on Fordsckeptic Scenario:

1. Go ahead and charge to 100% daily because this is not actual 100% SOC of battery pack (there will be buffer unlike Tesla) and home charging will be slow and friendly to the pack.
2. The truck might hit EPA range at 70mph, and achieve higher than EPA at slower driving. Yet to be determined until drivers can start testing.
3. Get the max tow option if you were not already planning to. This is more powerful battery conditioning which might help you with some additional percentage points, especially for heating battery on your return trip home. I think it is an $865 option and you get more towing capacity that can only be good for resale value.
4. Ford could make hidden battery capacity buffer available to the vehicle over time so that range appears to stay constant to the operator over the first 8 years while people are paying close attention to their warranty.
5. Set a timer so that charging completes shortly before departure in the morning, so that battery is already conditioned for the trip to work.
6. Consider how long it will take to recharge at home if you are highly dependent on all the range being available to you each day. A late night at work in the winter might make for an unpleasant following day.
7. Getting access to charging at your work, even a 120VAC outlet during coldest periods, can help pre-condition your battery and be more efficient returning home.

It's easy to say just get the ER, but if you really need to stay at SR I say it might work you just need to be more actively involved in planning. If that is the type of thing that would be an irritation, make another choice. If it is well worth the benefits that come with driving electric or even a little fun, I say give the SR a shot.
 
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Fordskeptic

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Thanks for additional replies Roy2001 and Adoublee. I am getting the understanding that BEVs are going to require more planning versus ICE. I figured on the need to plan trips and locate chargers, etc., but some of the other things like programming charge end times at home, preconditioning the battery at work, preheating the cab, etc are all things that I may/would need to plan for. The ER is too pricey for me.
 

Mr. Flibble

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Figure 15% degradation at 7 years. 195.5M
Charge to 90% =176
Winter = 35% penalty (10 for capacitance loss and 25 for resistanve heater) down to 115 miles.
If the lighting is similar to Mach e, EPA range will be pretty close to even at 70 mph.

These are pretty conservative worst case situations. I think you’ll be fine. If you want to be totally safe preheat before you leave and only use the seat warmer (aftermarket On Pro).
So, my Kia Soul EV+ (which currently has a bad battery) would get, when the battery was healthy, about 70 miles of range at the very worst, when in winter and highway driving. Normally it is 90-110 miles. I don’t see why you would have any range issues trying to go about 100 miles with a much larger battery than what I have.

Granted, if you try to crank the interior heat to 85 degrees, you are going to have a bad time.
 

adoublee

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Thanks for additional replies Roy2001 and Adoublee. I am getting the understanding that BEVs are going to require more planning versus ICE. I figured on the need to plan trips and locate chargers, etc., but some of the other things like programming charge end times at home, preconditioning the battery at work, preheating the cab, etc are all things that I may/would need to plan for. The ER is too pricey for me.
Just remember that these are all things that allow some flex in what the vehicle can do, because we can't know precisely how much margin you will have with the SR. But once you have a vehicle and begin to use it you can just get used to implementing what is needed to complete a daily cycle, and then ignore the rest. For example, preconditioning at work would be a pain in the arse even though it is an option that exists - that might be final stretch for me if there is no EVSE installed there and I have to lug out a mobile charger that gets all dirty or snowy.

Upside being never pulling up to a gas pump again and a sweet ride.
 

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I'm just seeing this now...the batteries are significantly smaller than I had been assuming. Interesting. They must be doing something fairly impressive to get 230/300 out of these batteries, also with 1000 lb payload? Doesn't seem possible.
 

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I'm just seeing this now...the batteries are significantly smaller than I had been assuming. Interesting. They must be doing something fairly impressive to get 230/300 out of these batteries, also with 1000 lb payload? Doesn't seem possible.
Definitely leaves less room for sandbagging.
 

LightningShow

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Definitely leaves less room for sandbagging.
Yup, time to put away the "400 mile range" talk for good. I bet official EPA range will be under 230/300.
 

rdr854

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Yup, time to put away the "400 mile range" talk for good. I bet official EPA range will be under 230/300.
I have to believe that with all the 230/300 mile range hype that afore has made sure that the Lightning will reach that range in its official EPA testing. I do not think that Ford is interested in bad press or a repeat of the Ford Fusion Hybrid debacle from the 2013 model year where it had to derate the MPG on the FFH and pay owners $750 per car. I had one of those affected cars.
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