October Forum Survey Results

[GarrettBlake]

I would like to get your feedback on this thread
https://www.f150lightningforum.com/...charge-speed-on-dash.31565/page-4#post-580997

This is an example of a feature that was added in 24 I believe but has not made it via OTA for 22 and 23. It seems pretty straightforward and certainly useful. Is this anything we can expect in an OTA or will people have to go to the great lengths described in the thread to do it themselves?

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[flyct]

A rough approximation of Forum members = about 21,000 from what I can see.
but the survey had only 200 replies. one member in 100. That seems surprisingly poor to me.
Perhaps the Admin know how many members are actually active on the forum, and the survey response of active members is a far better percentage than total membership implies.

A sample size of 100 from a population of 21,000 is actually statistically significant. A 100 reply sample size from a 21k population will probably net a ±10% Margin of Error.

That is from my Six Sigma Certification days.

 

[Jim Lewis]

That is from my Six Sigma Certification days.

You might want to check your notes from your Six Sigma classes... The following is from the Wikipedia article on Margin of Error, where in the CONCEPT section, n is defined as the sample size and N as the population size. The article notes that for large sample sizes (usually more than 50 to 100 samples, IIRC), the error distribution approaches a normal distribution. You can see that the margin of error basically increases with variability within the population (sigma squared) and decreases with increasing sample size. N, the population size, does not appear in the error calculation. The z factor relates to the degree of confidence one wants in the margin of error result (MOE).
Margin of error - Wikipedia section on CONCEPT.

The only time N gets involved, for the most part, is when the sample size approaches 5% to 10% of the population size, because then, as you go along, you start to change the population composition remaining to be sampled by the samples you have already gotten. That's explained in the same article in the Margin of error - Wikipedia section on the Finite Population Correction (FPC).

One can easily calculate that, for a binary survey question and a sample size of 100, the maximum % error will be about 10% without invoking the population size (as in your example). The maximum variance in a binary choice is when the responses are split ~50-50. Sigma squared is then 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25. With n = 100, 0.25/100 = 0.0025, and its square root is 0.05. For (two-sided) 95% confidence, the z factor is ~2, so 2 * 0.05 = 0.10, or a 10% margin of error. The calculation doesn't involve the population size at all. A sample size of 100 divided by a 21,000 population size is ~0.5%, well below the sample size proportion (5% to 10%) where the Finite Population Correction needs to be invoked.

One can also ask ChatGPT or Google Gemini and get the same explanation (with less math!) that's contained in the Wikipedia Margin of Error article.

 

[flyct]

A sample size of 100 from a population of 21,000 is actually statistically significant. A 100 reply sample size from a 21k population will probably net a ±10% Margin of Error.

That is from my Six Sigma Certification days.

You might want to check your notes from your Six Sigma classes... The following is from the Wikipedia article on Margin of Error, where in the CONCEPT section, n is defined as the sample size and N as the population size. The article notes that for large sample sizes (usually more than 50 to 100 samples, IIRC), the error distribution approaches a normal distribution. You can see that the margin of error basically increases with variability within the population (sigma squared) and decreases with increasing sample size. N, the population size, does not appear in the error calculation. The z factor relates to the degree of confidence one wants in the margin of error result (MOE).
Margin of error - Wikipedia section on CONCEPT.

The only time N gets involved, for the most part, is when the sample size approaches 5% to 10% of the population size, because then, as you go along, you start to change the population composition remaining to be sampled by the samples you have already gotten. That's explained in the same article in the Margin of error - Wikipedia section on the Finite Population Correction (FPC).

One can easily calculate that, for a binary survey question and a sample size of 100, the maximum % error will be about 10% without invoking the population size (as in your example). The maximum variance in a binary choice is when the responses are split ~50-50. Sigma squared is then 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25. With n = 100, 0.25/100 = 0.0025, and its square root is 0.05. For (two-sided) 95% confidence, the z factor is ~2, so 2 * 0.05 = 0.10, or a 10% margin of error. The calculation doesn't involve the population size at all. A sample size of 100 divided by a 21,000 population size is ~0.5%, well below the sample size proportion (5% to 10%) where the Finite Population Correction needs to be invoked.

One can also ask ChatGPT or Google Gemini and get the same explanation (with less math!) that's contained in the Wikipedia Margin of Error article.

Jim,

Thank you for confirming my posting that if n=1 the MOA is about 10%. Most "normal" people wouldn't understand the formula, like the two of us nerds do.

Sort of like trying to explain what the 68-95-99.7 Rule "One, Two and Three standard deviations (σ) of the mean" is to a normal person. They don't care! They just know that they love their Lightnings, as do we nerds.

 

[NW Ontario Ford Lightning]

A sample size of 100 from a population of 21,000 is actually statistically significant. A 100 reply sample size from a 21k population will probably net a ±10% Margin of Error.

That is from my Six Sigma Certification days.

Except this was not a random sample. Replies were from members motivated to respond, not a random sample that could represent the whole.

 

[Maxx]

Deep dives on technical "nerdy" stuff

I want to know exactly how my Lightning thinks and works. When it does what and for what reason. Everywhere electrons and cooling fluid go, I want to be right there with them.

 

[Pacific.NW]

A rough approximation of Forum members = about 21,000 from what I can see.
but the survey had only 200 replies. one member in 100. That seems surprisingly poor to me.

I didn’t see the original post announcing the survey or I would have taken it for sure. Maybe if it’s emailed along with the regular notifications that might help reach more members!

 

[Jim Lewis]

I didn’t see the original post announcing the survey or I would have taken it for sure. Maybe if it’s emailed along with the regular notifications that might help reach more members!

The forum doesn't seem to use "stickies" within the ~default view that most people probably start with: (4) Ford Lightning Forum For F-150 Lightning EV Pickup: News, Owners, Discussions, Community (the Latest Posts view). @Ford Motor Company (Brian), maybe you should get with the @Administrator or @TaxmanHog and see if they can make important announcements you want to make at least a temporary stickie and/or get them listed in the weekly summary of forum doings, etc.

 

[Jim Lewis]

Thank you for confirming my posting that if n=1 the MOA is about 10%. Most "normal" people wouldn't understand the formula, like the two of us nerds do.

Sorry that I misunderstood you. Since you mentioned the population size in both sentences in your original post, quoted below, I thought you were invoking that as a factor in computing the relative survey error. (Perhaps you mean "if n=100" in what I've quoted above?)

A sample size of 100 from a population of 21,000 is actually statistically significant. A 100 reply sample size from a 21k population will probably net a ±10% Margin of Error.

Statistics is a fun topic. It really didn't get going as a mathematical field of study until the 16th or 17th century in France. So, unlike geometry, it's one of the newer branches of math, and it came to life as a discipline driven by gamblers seeking a better grasp of the odds in various betting situations.

I've forgotten most of the math I ever thought I knew, but I once loved doing weighted nonlinear regression in SAS. SAS now lives in part in the cloud, so anyone who wants to experiment with statistics and go beyond what can be done with a hand calculator or Excel can check it out: SAS OnDemand for Academics (ChatGPT says SAS does not police the academics part, and home users can enjoy limited free use).

 

[TaxmanHog]

The forum doesn't seem to use "stickies" within the ~default view that most people probably start with: (4) Ford Lightning Forum For F-150 Lightning EV Pickup: News, Owners, Discussions, Community (the Latest Posts view). @Ford Motor Company (Brian), maybe you should get with the @Administrator or @TaxmanHog and see if they can make important announcements you want to make at least a temporary stickie and/or get them listed in the weekly summary of forum doings, etc.

I can make that happen the next time a survey comes out.

 

[RickKeen]

Here is what you can do to help put pressure on to get those software updates we keep hammering Ford about.

Invite some of the Software Engineers to make a video with you demonstrating some aspect of the Truck. But really its a chance to make them experience the issue directly, themselves.

For example, Have them connect a trailer. Video them using the camera controls to get the hitch lined up. No cheating / editing. Make them do a retake if they mess up on switching the camera or don't get it lined up. Soon they will realize the camera controls fail to be helpful in that task.

Same thing on the "Full View Not Available". Tell a software Engineer that you are making a video about how you can use the rear camera to check your payload on your trailer. Have them demo how it works...

Have an engineer make a video of how to connect a boat trailer with a 5 pin plug. They will quickly learn that there is such a thing as a 5 pin plug AND it doesn't fit into the Ford 4 pin connector.

Have an engineer make a video of how to connect a boat trailer with smaller safety hooks. They will quickly learn that the cutouts for connecting safety hooks on the Ford trailer hitch cannot accommodate some common safety hooks.

 

[SeanOC]

First off @Ford Motor Company Brian thank you for your engagement here. For me one simple update I would love is a Dog mode option. I take my golden retriever everywhere with me and it would be such a nice addition that my wife’s Tesla has.

 

[Bestword57]

I'm happy you're here too, Brian! I used to be a Network Administrator and a programmer. I can say I definitely would like to see the nerdy stuff and be more informed about OTA updates. Anti-glare headlight settings for all would be nice. Real leather covering the entire seat (I have the Lariat trim, but the seats are half-and-half). The other thing I'm concerned about is why 12V battery voltage is not adequate for the installation of certain OTA updates, causing the update to fail. When I see a notice that an update is coming (at 1:00 AM), I hook the 12V battery to a 55A power supply overnight in the hope that it won't fail. Thank you for all your efforts to reach out on behalf of Ford!

 

[doggod]

actually send updates that make vehicle better
fix charging software
dog mode
camp mode
how about some real off road software, instead of turning off one pedal driving and activating rear diff lock.

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